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2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

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Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

ScoobyDoo said:
Are we really supposed to vote for a guy that removes his kids stitches because it costs too much if the doctor does it? Really?
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I don't care if he does it or not. In fact, I'd do the same, but that doesn't make it good campaign material.
walrus said:
I'v e taken my own stitches. whats the big deal? Guess i wouldn't do it from an operation but for a cut, no problem
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I've done the same after getting stitches from visits to the ER or urgent care. Once you get the knots cut, they just glide right out. I did not take out the stitches from my shoulder surgery, however, because that was done at the first of the many follow up exams.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

dxmnkd316 said:
He does. Which is why I've put him on the Wellstone mantle (rather, with a probationary status). I've read/heard anecdotes that he's known on both sides of the aisle as the hardest working member of the Senate. Everything time he speaks on an issue, he's been very careful to review the entire background on it and become as much of an expert as possible.
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I'm just saying that unless you're a person who likes to consume political news or information on specific politicians, you're not likely to have heard much about what Franken has been doing. Most people who vote don't follow politics that closely, if at all.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

ScoobyDoo said:
Are we really supposed to vote for a guy that removes his kids stitches because it costs too much if the doctor does it? Really?
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I remember the first time I watched that commercial, I couldn't believe what I was seeing. Being that cheap isn't necessary a thing to brag about. Rather than appearing frugal he came off as foolhardy.

The guy offers absolutely nothing outside of an enthusiastic, "I'm going to burn it all to the ground! I hate Obummer!"


NEXT!
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

St. Clown said:
I'm just saying that unless you're a person who likes to consume political news or information on specific politicians, you're not likely to have heard much about what Franken has been doing. Most people who vote don't follow politics that closely, if at all.
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Gotcha. Makes sense.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

dxmnkd316 said:
I remember the first time I watched that commercial, I couldn't believe what I was seeing. Being that cheap isn't necessary a thing to brag about. Rather than appearing frugal he came off as foolhardy.

The guy offers absolutely nothing outside of an enthusiastic, "I'm going to burn it all to the ground! I hate Obummer!"


NEXT!
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I want to know what demographic loves that commercial. Cause I hated it.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
Yes, well. You make a good point. Crap.
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You're onto something but I would apply it a different way. Way too many pollsters have gotten humiliated lately trying to figure out who the "likely voters" are. Using your methodology, I would poll all registered voters in a race (say Arkansas) then haircut the results by that state's lean - say 3-5% off of Pryor's #'s and add some back to his challenger given that less people will show up on election day and they're more likely or not to be minority voters or younger voters.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

dxmnkd316 said:
Whoa, I have to disagree. This is precisely what turned me around on Franken. He has been spearheading the fight against things like NSA overreach, SOPA, net neutrality. Things like that. Nothing flashy, sure, but these are some of the most important yet rarely covered issues right now.

But yeah, this McFadden guy is a walking platitude machine.
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When Franken was elected, Republicans didn't think he had any business being a senator--they thought for sure it was just a matter of time before they could point at him and call him an embarrassment. They were wrong. So now they're reduced to the "he hasn't done anything to get excited about" refrain.
 
Rover said:
Exactly but it contradicts your own theory about people being so polarized they vote the state's partisan lean.

This isn't directed at you but more about pundidiotry in general. Someone (may have been the Times) ran an article about how the Dems were in trouble because the economy was perceived as being bad. A fair point. Then they ran an article a few days later about how all the GOP governors were going to win because the economy was better. :confused: Okay....:rolleyes:

So I'm always on the lookout for two things 1) predictions that completely dismiss independent polling, and 2) heads we win-tales you lose analysis.

For the Senate at this point based on 1) current polling, 2) incumbent favorability, 3) partisan lean, and 4) challenger quality, in that order of importance I'd have to say:

GOP picks up MT, SD, WV. Double digit polling lead, no Dem incumbent*, and sane GOP challenger in red state.

CO, IA, KY, and GA stay with their respective parties. No reason to boot Udall for a personhood amendment kook provided stoners all make it the polls in CO. McConnell in a lot more trouble than people think but he squeaks it out in a non-Prez year (he'd be toast if he had to run in 16 in a Hillary year). GA Nunn makes a go of it but her supporters don't all show up on election day, In Iowa one too many adds of GOP woman candidate castrating cattle leads to surge of male voters for Dem candidate.

That means election comes down to 4 Dem incumbents in GOP states: Begich (AK), Landrieu (LA), Pryor (AK) and Hagan (NC). GOP needs 3 out of 4 to win Senate.

*Walsh in MT was appointed so technically an incumbent but not really.
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The primary in Alaska is in a couple of weeks. I think you'll have a good idea at who'll win by then.

I think Begich will retain though. He's got a *ton of financial support and the AK GOP is heading off the far right cliff.

And I can't wait to repeat this * in two years with Murkowski. :rolleyes:
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

GrinCDXX said:
When Franken was elected, Republicans didn't think he had any business being a senator--they thought for sure it was just a matter of time before they could point at him and call him an embarrassment. They were wrong. So now they're reduced to the "he hasn't done anything to get excited about" refrain.
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How does the average voter get excited? It's going to be through some austentatious act that appears in the national news or through a campaign ad put out by one side or the other. Talk to people in most areas of the country, those who are just trying to make ends meet, and they're not spending time on political news. Those people get home and they want relief from the stress, not looking for something that might get their blood boiling. Deny it all you want, it's the truth. Franken has earned a reputation as a hard working senator who's simply doing his job, not bloviating to get his face on the news. Franken's reelection will come down to which ever side puts out the best ads. Based upon the ads that the challenger McFadden has put out there thus far, Franken is winning and he hasn't even ran a single campaign ad yet.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Rover said:
You're onto something but I would apply it a different way. Way too many pollsters have gotten humiliated lately trying to figure out who the "likely voters" are. Using your methodology, I would poll all registered voters in a race (say Arkansas) then haircut the results by that state's lean - say 3-5% off of Pryor's #'s and add some back to his challenger given that less people will show up on election day and they're more likely or not to be minority voters or younger voters.
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Sure, but that would be a real methodology. I was going for a broad brush, mindless algorithm that will still follow the 80/20 rule. Really I was underlining the sentiment that the differences in projected methodologies this far out is illusory: even a WAG is as likely (or unlikely) to capture the result because we still have 3 months of national and local events, personal scandals, etc until ED.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

St. Clown said:
Talk to people in most areas of the country, those who are just trying to make ends meet, and they're not spending time on political news. Those people get home and they want relief from the stress, not looking for something that might get their blood boiling.
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I hope this is true. Rush has 13M listeners, Hannity 12M, the vast majority of the rest don't break 5M. O'Reilly and the Fox swill is around 5M. There's a lot of overlap in those audiences. So let's say the total Echo Chamber audience is 20M. Romney took 60M, so 2/3rds of the Republican electorate is too busy and/or intelligent to be ingurgitating at the trough. Very loose estimates of Kos readership are around 3M. Dem Und has maybe 1M. TDS has 2M. The ratings on the biggest Dem talk radio shows are negligible. So figure the Vast Leftwing Conspiracy is 5M -- about 1 in 12 of Obama voters. The other 11 were too busy to post on the Cafe. ;)
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
I hope this is true. Rush has 13M listeners, Hannity 12M, the vast majority of the rest don't break 5M. O'Reilly and the Fox swill is around 5M. There's a lot of overlap in those audiences. So let's say the total Echo Chamber audience is 20M. Romney took 60M, so 2/3rds of the Republican electorate is too busy and/or intelligent to be ingurgitating at the trough. Very loose estimates of Kos readership are around 3M. Dem Und has maybe 1M. TDS has 2M. The ratings on the biggest Dem talk radio shows are negligible. So figure the Vast Leftwing Conspiracy is 5M -- about 1 in 12 of Obama voters. The other 11 were too busy to post on the Cafe. ;)
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It's along the lines of the old Jay Walking segments on Leno's show from back in the 90's. Even today, ask people to find Crimea on a world map and most people won't be able to do it, maybe even the vast majority. Hell, ask them to find Canada and a disappointing number will fail. Ask them who the Speaker of the House, or the Senate's President Pro Tempe is, you'll get blank stares, and a few will guess Obama. We live in a willfully ignorant society.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

St. Clown said:
How does the average voter get excited? It's going to be through some austentatious act that appears in the national news or through a campaign ad put out by one side or the other. Talk to people in most areas of the country, those who are just trying to make ends meet, and they're not spending time on political news. Those people get home and they want relief from the stress, not looking for something that might get their blood boiling. Deny it all you want, it's the truth. Franken has earned a reputation as a hard working senator who's simply doing his job, not bloviating to get his face on the news. Franken's reelection will come down to which ever side puts out the best ads. Based upon the ads that the challenger McFadden has put out there thus far, Franken is winning and he hasn't even ran a single campaign ad yet.
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I don't remember Amy Klobuchar doing much to get herself in the news during her first term as a senator. She simply earned a reputation as a hard working senator who was simply doing her job. In 2012, the voters in Minnesota seemed to show that they noticed and appreciated that.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Kepler said:
I hope this is true. Rush has 13M listeners, Hannity 12M, the vast majority of the rest don't break 5M. O'Reilly and the Fox swill is around 5M. There's a lot of overlap in those audiences. So let's say the total Echo Chamber audience is 20M. Romney took 60M, so 2/3rds of the Republican electorate is too busy and/or intelligent to be ingurgitating at the trough. Very loose estimates of Kos readership are around 3M. Dem Und has maybe 1M. TDS has 2M. The ratings on the biggest Dem talk radio shows are negligible. So figure the Vast Leftwing Conspiracy is 5M -- about 1 in 12 of Obama voters. The other 11 were too busy to post on the Cafe. ;)
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You conveniently ignore the largely left-leaning mainstream media, but I know that's one of the talking points, so you have to stick to it.
 
Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

GrinCDXX said:
I don't remember Amy Klobuchar doing much to get herself in the news during her first term as a senator. She simply earned a reputation as a hard working senator who was simply doing her job. In 2012, the voters in Minnesota seemed to show that they noticed and appreciated that.
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Klobuchar earned her rep with voters by prosecuting mostly high profile court cases as the DA for Hennepin County, and winning those cases, that were broadcast by local media quite frequently, back when local news broadcasts still got respectable ratings.
 
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