2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

This is reason #1 why Senate predictions are ludicrous at this point.

You could probably take the 2012 state results from the general, chop 3 points off the Dems for midterm turnout adjustment, add 5 points to whoever's an incumbent, and have the 2014 results. The battle lines are so firmly drawn that the choice of candidate at this point is almost incidental.

Start with safe seats:

D: HI, MN, NJ, OR, VA, NH
R: KS, MS, MT*, SD*, WV*

What's left:

D inc: AK, AR, CO, LA, NC
R inc: KY
Open: GA, MI

From the Dem POV

AK, -14, -3, +5 --> R*
AR, -24, -3, +5 --> R*
CO, +5, -3, +5 --> D
LA, -17, -3, +5 --> R*
NC, -2, -3, +5 --> tossup
KY, -23, -3, -5 --> R
GA, -8, -3 --> R
MI, +9, -3 --> D

Result R +6 plus or minus another pickup in NC.

 

[unofan]

You could probably take the 2012 state results from the general, chop 3 points off the Dems for midterm turnout adjustment, add 5 points to whoever's an incumbent, and have the 2014 results. The battle lines are so firmly drawn that the choice of candidate at this point is almost incidental.

Start with safe seats:

D: HI, MN, NJ, OR, VA, NH
R: KS, MS, MT*, SD*, WV*

What's left:

D inc: AK, AR, CO, LA, NC
R inc: KY
Open: GA, MI

From the Dem POV

AK, -14, -3, +5 --> R*
AR, -24, -3, +5 --> R*
CO, +5, -3, +5 --> D
LA, -17, -3, +5 --> R*
NC, -2, -3, +5 --> tossup
KY, -23, -3, -5 --> R
GA, -8, -3 --> R
MI, +9, -5 --> D

Result R +6 plus or minus another pickup in NC.

Don't forget Iowa, which is an open Dem seat. Braley should win going away if he can get his campaign going, but the tea party nut job is keeping it close thanks to his early mistakes and the money from Rove and the Koch Bros. Super PACs.

 

[Jimjamesak]

You could probably take the 2012 state results from the general, chop 3 points off the Dems for midterm turnout adjustment, add 5 points to whoever's an incumbent, and have the 2014 results. The battle lines are so firmly drawn that the choice of candidate at this point is almost incidental.

Start with safe seats:

D: HI, MN, NJ, OR, VA, NH
R: KS, MS, MT*, SD*, WV*

What's left:

D inc: AK, AR, CO, LA, NC
R inc: KY
Open: GA, MI

From the Dem POV

AK, -14, -3, +5 --> R*
AR, -24, -3, +5 --> R*
CO, +5, -3, +5 --> D
LA, -17, -3, +5 --> R*
NC, -2, -3, +5 --> tossup
KY, -23, -3, -5 --> R
GA, -8, -3 --> R
MI, +9, -3 --> D

Result R +6 plus or minus another pickup in NC.

I would not use 2012 numbers to try to predict the result in Alaska.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Don't forget Iowa, which is an open Dem seat. Braley should win going away if he can get his campaign going, but the tea party nut job is keeping it close thanks to his early mistakes and the money from Rove and the Koch Bros. Super PACs.

Oops, I did forget IA

IA, +5, -3 --> D

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

I would not use 2012 numbers to try to predict the result in Alaska.

Well, the concept here is to generate a decent prediction with no factoring in of the candidates at all.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

You could probably take the 2012 state results from the general, chop 3 points off the Dems for midterm turnout adjustment, add 5 points to whoever's an incumbent, and have the 2014 results. The battle lines are so firmly drawn that the choice of candidate at this point is almost incidental.

Start with safe seats:

D: HI, MN, NJ, OR, VA, NH
R: KS, MS, MT*, SD*, WV*

What's left:

D inc: AK, AR, CO, LA, NC
R inc: KY
Open: GA, MI

From the Dem POV

AK, -14, -3, +5 --> R*
AR, -24, -3, +5 --> R*
CO, +5, -3, +5 --> D
LA, -17, -3, +5 --> R*
NC, -2, -3, +5 --> tossup
KY, -23, -3, -5 --> R
GA, -8, -3 --> R
MI, +9, -3 --> D

Result R +6 plus or minus another pickup in NC.

Not a big fan of that methodology but one guess is as good as another. Reason being I'm less on board with the notion that the candidates don't matter. For example nobody's predicting Maine goes to the Dems this year.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Today (well, yesterday) in derp.

Here's some background on the nutbars in question. They sound nice.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

You could probably take the 2012 state results from the general, chop 3 points off the Dems for midterm turnout adjustment, add 5 points to whoever's an incumbent, and have the 2014 results. The battle lines are so firmly drawn that the choice of candidate at this point is almost incidental.

Start with safe seats:

D: MN

You know, I've been saying Franken's seat is safe, but I'm less confident now. I've done a 180 on Franken (despised him to comparing him to Wellstone), but the only thing he has going for him right now is that he's an incumbent and we're electing a governor this year. Without those two things, I don't think anyone could call it secure. A midterm election with the state split pretty evenly? That's tough for a DFLer.

Edit: After reading this bit from Nate Silver

There are also a couple of changes that favor Democrats. One is in New Hampshire, where we have Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s chances of holding her seat at 90 percent, up from 80 percent. In Minnesota, meanwhile, we have Sen. Al Franken as a 95 percent favorite, up from 90 percent before.

In theory, both Franken and Shaheen are somewhat vulnerable. New Hampshire is an extraordinarily “swingy” state and Shaheen’s opponent, the former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, is well credentialed. Franken won his election by the narrowest possible margin in 2008 and has a very liberal voting record in Minnesota, which is not as much of a blue state as it once was.

But both also have reasonably good approval ratings. And they’ve held fairly consistent leads in head-to-head polls — by about 12 points in Franken’s case and eight points in Shaheen’s. Furthermore, both have often been at or above 50 percent of the vote in polls of likely voters — incumbents who achieve that distinction very rarely lose.

Minnesota and New Hampshire may be cases that speak to the differences between the 2010 and 2014 political environments. In 2010, a Republican wave year, the Democratic incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold lost re-election despite his passable approval ratings. This year, Shaheen and Franken seem pretty safe.

I suppose that lends credence to it being a secure seat. I'm still hesitant though.

Edit 2: He's also running against a complete gomer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7ivJegFF3E

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

For example nobody's predicting Maine goes to the Dems this year.

ME's one of the seats so safe it's not even worth listing:

DE: Coons (D)
IL: Durbin (D)
MA: Markey (D)
NM: Udall (D)
RI: Reed (D)
AL: Sessions (R)
ID: Risch (R)
ME: Collins (R)
NE: Open (R)
OK: Inhofe (R)
OK: Open (R)
SC: Graham (R)
SC: Scott (R)
TN: Alexander (R)
TX: Cornyn (R)
WY: Enzi (R)

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

You know, I've been saying Franken's seat is safe, but I'm less confident now. I've done a 180 on Franken (despised him to comparing him to Wellstone), but the only thing he has going for him right now is that he's an incumbent and we're electing a governor this year. Without those two things, I don't think anyone could call it secure. A midterm election with the state split pretty evenly? That's tough for a DFLer.

Edit: After reading this bit from Nate Silver


I suppose that lends credence to it being a secure seat. I'm still hesitant though.

Edit 2: He's also running against a complete gomer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7ivJegFF3E

You also have to look at our state historically. We've not traditionally had two senators of the same party in office at the same time for very long. After Franken's win, Klobuchar won re-election in 2012, which could spell a bad result for Franken. When you look at his record in DC, there's nothing to really get people excited for him or against him. The most biting piece might be that he had been around with Klobuchar to get portions of the PPACA new taxes repealed, specifically around medical device sales, because he seemed to learn that we have a large medical device manufacturing presence in the state and they were none too happy with him for voting for the bill in the first place. Beyond that, only the biggest of wonks are going to be able to say much about Franken either to the positive or negative.

However, that McFadden guy the Republicans are running against Franken is just annoying. I can't stand when politicians toss kids into their campaign ads, and he's been doing that a lot. He's all platitudes and no substance thus far. While that's not surprising, he still strikes me as extraordinarily smug.

 

[Priceless]

ME's one of the seats so safe it's not even worth listing.

I know Shenna and she's a great candidate. It's a shame she is running against Collins..especially when she promised she would only serve two terms and this will be her fourth. She has run a positive campaign to date and laid the groundwork for a run for Congress when Pingree finally decides she's had enough of DC. But yeah, barring something unusual she is going to have her clock cleaned on election day.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

When you look at his record in DC, there's nothing to really get people excited for him or against him.

Whoa, I have to disagree. This is precisely what turned me around on Franken. He has been spearheading the fight against things like NSA overreach, SOPA, net neutrality. Things like that. Nothing flashy, sure, but these are some of the most important yet rarely covered issues right now.

But yeah, this McFadden guy is a walking platitude machine.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Whoa, I have to disagree. This is precisely what turned me around on Franken. He has been spearheading the fight against things like NSA overreach, SOPA, net neutrality. Things like that. Nothing flashy, sure, but these are some of the most important yet rarely covered issues right now.

He's got a great rep on the Hill for being smart and also very humble. I have hard core conservative friends who would rather deal with Franken than some of their own people because he famously likes very fast-paced briefings heavy on the main concepts; if he needs to dive in later he has his staff's notes. He's also got a rep as subtly taking the air out of the more puffed up "wise guys" on both sides of the aisle. Cruz hates him because Franken completely took him down a couple times in session and Cruz fancies himself an intellectual. Franken also ran rings around Cruz when they had a spat about the consequences of Citizens United, where Cruz was completely wrong on the merits and Franken rather skillfully let him impale himself on his own words without ever really saying anything (notably, none of Cruz' ideological friends defended him, because he's loathed).

I get the impression he just works hard and tries to get the facts right. Fine by me. Like I've said before, Coburn is probably one of the ten most hard-core conservatives but he puts in the work and tries to understand things. That's all I ask from our Members.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

You also have to look at our state historically. We've not traditionally had two senators of the same party in office at the same time for very long. After Franken's win, Klobuchar won re-election in 2012, which could spell a bad result for Franken. When you look at his record in DC, there's nothing to really get people excited for him or against him. The most biting piece might be that he had been around with Klobuchar to get portions of the PPACA new taxes repealed, specifically around medical device sales, because he seemed to learn that we have a large medical device manufacturing presence in the state and they were none too happy with him for voting for the bill in the first place. Beyond that, only the biggest of wonks are going to be able to say much about Franken either to the positive or negative.

However, that McFadden guy the Republicans are running against Franken is just annoying. I can't stand when politicians toss kids into their campaign ads, and he's been doing that a lot. He's all platitudes and no substance thus far. While that's not surprising, he still strikes me as extraordinarily smug.

Are we really supposed to vote for a guy that removes his kids stitches because it costs too much if the doctor does it? Really?

 

[Rover]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

ME's one of the seats so safe it's not even worth listing:

DE: Coons (D)
IL: Durbin (D)
MA: Markey (D)
NM: Udall (D)
RI: Reed (D)
AL: Sessions (R)
ID: Risch (R)
ME: Collins (R)
NE: Open (R)
OK: Inhofe (R)
OK: Open (R)
SC: Graham (R)
SC: Scott (R)
TN: Alexander (R)
TX: Cornyn (R)
WY: Enzi (R)

Exactly but it contradicts your own theory about people being so polarized they vote the state's partisan lean.

This isn't directed at you but more about pundidiotry in general. Someone (may have been the Times) ran an article about how the Dems were in trouble because the economy was perceived as being bad. A fair point. Then they ran an article a few days later about how all the GOP governors were going to win because the economy was better. Okay....

So I'm always on the lookout for two things 1) predictions that completely dismiss independent polling, and 2) heads we win-tales you lose analysis.

For the Senate at this point based on 1) current polling, 2) incumbent favorability, 3) partisan lean, and 4) challenger quality, in that order of importance I'd have to say:

GOP picks up MT, SD, WV. Double digit polling lead, no Dem incumbent*, and sane GOP challenger in red state.

CO, IA, KY, and GA stay with their respective parties. No reason to boot Udall for a personhood amendment kook provided stoners all make it the polls in CO. McConnell in a lot more trouble than people think but he squeaks it out in a non-Prez year (he'd be toast if he had to run in 16 in a Hillary year). GA Nunn makes a go of it but her supporters don't all show up on election day, In Iowa one too many adds of GOP woman candidate castrating cattle leads to surge of male voters for Dem candidate.

That means election comes down to 4 Dem incumbents in GOP states: Begich (AK), Landrieu (LA), Pryor (AK) and Hagan (NC). GOP needs 3 out of 4 to win Senate.

*Walsh in MT was appointed so technically an incumbent but not really.

 

[walrus]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Are we really supposed to vote for a guy that removes his kids stitches because it costs too much if the doctor does it? Really?

I'v e taken my own stitches. whats the big deal? Guess i wouldn't do it from an operation but for a cut, no problem

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

I'v e taken my own stitches. whats the big deal? Guess i wouldn't do it from an operation but for a cut, no problem

Ew. EW!!!!

Impressive, but... ew.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

In other news, this is a great parody. (If you don't know what's being parodied don't ask, it's too stupid for words. Which is why this is so great.)

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Exactly but it contradicts your own theory about people being so polarized they vote the state's partisan lean.

Yes, well. You make a good point. Crap.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

He's got a great rep on the Hill for being smart and also very humble. I have hard core conservative friends who would rather deal with Franken than some of their own people because he famously likes very fast-paced briefings heavy on the main concepts; if he needs to dive in later he has his staff's notes. He's also got a rep as subtly taking the air out of the more puffed up "wise guys" on both sides of the aisle. Cruz hates him because Franken completely took him down a couple times in session and Cruz fancies himself an intellectual. Franken also ran rings around Cruz when they had a spat about the consequences of Citizens United, where Cruz was completely wrong on the merits and Franken rather skillfully let him impale himself on his own words without ever really saying anything (notably, none of Cruz' ideological friends defended him, because he's loathed).

I think you nailed it. The highlighted part above made me laugh.

I get the impression he just works hard and tries to get the facts right. Fine by me. Like I've said before, Coburn is probably one of the ten most hard-core conservatives but he puts in the work and tries to understand things. That's all I ask from our Members.

He does. Which is why I've put him on the Wellstone mantle (rather, with a probationary status). I've read/heard anecdotes that he's known on both sides of the aisle as the hardest working member of the Senate. Everything time he speaks on an issue, he's been very careful to review the entire background on it and become as much of an expert as possible.