aparch
Well-known member
Pffffffttttt.... more of that librul "arabic" math that the leftists are trying to shove down the soft, supple throats of good conservative children...
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2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy
- Thread starter Kepler
- Start date
Pffffffttttt.... more of that librul "arabic" math that the leftists are trying to shove down the soft, supple throats of good conservative children...
aparch
Well-known member
"Free Helicopter Rides! --Putin" (probably.)
My MIL, in her mid/late 70s and ardent Catholic, believed it. She was regurgitating it yesterday evening, along with “horrific” information on MN’s proposed new legislation to put a new state ERA constitutional amendment on the ballot that protects against gender/sex discrimination and provide abortion rights. (I forget if the last is a second proposal or not.)
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
I mentioned you specifically because you were the one who pointed it out. Because you did what the pundits and pollsters no longer do...you scrutinized the data and found the flaws. If the people talking about polls breathlessly for hours on end did what you did they would have realized they were being played.
And you are half right...as the polls got closer to the election and the pundits started to go against the narratives they predicted a lot of things correctly. But that was come September, when anyone with two eyes could see the races were not as close as they seemed. (I am not speaking about the Presidential right now) Polls that were "toss ups" all of a suddenly started to regress back to the norm. 2 point races became 5 point races and candidates in trouble all of a sudden out of the blue didn't have much to worry about. In 2020 the media shifted the narrative like they were supposed to and by Election Day we had a pretty good handle on how things would play out in most races outside of the big one. (which in itself was only really weird because of how long it took, a lot of stats people had that nailed based on trends) Which is why getting bent out of shape about polls any significant distance away from Election Day is a waste of time...its like worrying about the PWR in November.
Now I get hyberbolic about polls and their effectiveness for a couple of reasons none of which are that I don't like math or stats. I do. The problem is that people and the media misuse and misinterpret polls to back up a narrative which then feeds a cycle of negativity and bad takes that the average voter never really questions. Polls are like any stat...they are only as good as the data you put in and they are nothing but a snapshot in time. A poll in May saying Biden is winning Wisconsin by 6 points (like the Quinnipiac Poll that just came out) is nice, but in and of itself is rather meaningless. It could mean Biden is surging, it could mean they just accidentally talked to a bunch of Dem voters or Never Trumpers or it could just be a fluke and in 3 weeks it will be a horserace again. It is just a point on a line nothing more. Not too long ago it would make headlines for maybe half a day, be mentioned as background data in stories maybe for a week or two tops (depending when the next round of polling comes out) and that was it.** Now? The media uses it like it is the NCAA Top 25 or the PWR or the RPI or whatever other stat sports comes up with to prove things that in fact are not very provable. Every poll is the most important thing in the world! Not only that but they have their own polls and by golly whenever they need some headlines to drum up some fear they just so happen to put them out! But what they rarely do these days is have a stats person or a professional pollster on to explain what the poll is saying. Again this is where guys like Nate Silver or Dave Weigel used to be great. They might look at that Biden +6 number and break it down...show where his strengths and weaknesses are. Show the trendlines and do actual analysis. Then explain the probabilities and what it is saying in the moment. Most networks have phased that out since 2020 though in lieu of the full time clickbait approach which is why they keep getting egg on their face every election since then. Whats worse is when they see the flaws they don't actually adjust they double down. There was some interesting analysis done during the primaries (when Haley was still in the race) that showed polling prior to the primaries was often off a significant amount as opposed to what the totals and even just exit polling was showing. Trump overperformed in the tracking but vastly underperformed in the actual results. And it was happening quite a bit. (you might remember I often mentioned it) It took quite a while for any of the mainstream pundits to really even talk about it in depth meanwhile guys like Weigel or Simon Rosenberg were talking about it in the moment...in Weigel's case often on the ground where the primary was happening. I watched in real time as his opinions shifted with the data...unlike the media who somehow flipped the script on it and used it to prove their already pre-produced narrative. (The ever present "How This Good News For Biden is Bad For Biden" narrative)
All this to say, I need to start amending my anti-poll statements to be more accurate. It is not the polls that are the problem, they are just the tool. The problem is the people who use the polls and have no idea how to interpret them or twist them to say what they want them to say. I would rather just get my polling info from the guys who know what they are talking about...not Chris Hayes or Anderson Cooper or Jesse Watters.
**since it is a Biden positive poll I would not be surprised if this still turned out to be the case. If it was Trump +.5 they would spend the next 3 days on it because OHMERGERD!!!1!1!
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
I don't know about that, but I know I hate my Governor.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
I will say this, if things go sideways and Trump wins it is going to be because of the media above all else...
While I was making dinner my SO decided to have MSNBC on (with a little CNN) just to shut her brain off a bit after work. MSNBC spent the entire breathlessly discussing Michael Cohen's testimony and CNN was talking about whatever poll just came out with 2 GOP strategists and a former Biden worker. No actual news just negativity by one station and halftime report style reporting out of the other. She turns to me (as CNN all but says Biden is screwed and Trump is a lock) and asks me what the heck is going on? I give her a bit of commentary but she still doesn't get how no one seems to see that the world is not as bad as the media seems to portray it and that none of this makes any sense. Then, the perfect example of my disdain for all things corporate happens...MSNBC finally goes away from talking about the trial to mention how Biden is pumping infrastructure and the Key Bridge project. (from a PC with a senator from Maryland) For 10 seconds before the program ends and then they go to the next show which is going to once again break down the testimony. In 1 hour or so of television the only actual piece of news relevant to the average vote not even 1 minute of time could be devoted to real news and it was the sign off moment of a show.
Now look I get that the trial is a historic thing and I bet it gets friggin great ratings but how are we supposed to have an informed populace if the media isn't at least partially helping out? I mean we hear constantly that "The Dems suck at messaging" but there are plenty of Dems out there talking all of the time but since actually doing the job of the President is not going to get people to tune in it gets lost in the miasma of fake punditry and the Sportcenter mentality of the media these days. I mean they spend 45 minutes talking about the newest poll (not really explaining them of course just showing numbers and then talking about who Trump will make VP) and then unironically wonder aloud "why do people think things aren't better when they are" but then never take the time to actually talk about why things are better. If the people have to find out the truth on their own what is the point to the Fourth Estate anyways? Do they think people will trust them more if they just don't say anything at all because history seems to show that is not helping out their bottom line in any way.
I don't need them making snarky comments because Trump and the GOP lied about his rally attendance, that crap is played out. I dont need you doing gotcha moments on the GOP people you have on...just report some phucking facts and analyze them to the same degree you do the latest "Bobs Big/NY Times Pitchbot Poll". Maybe stop framing everything through the lens of Trump and just talk about the things Biden and the Dems are doing. You have had 8 years to get this right and you are failing worse now than you did in 2016.
While I was making dinner my SO decided to have MSNBC on (with a little CNN) just to shut her brain off a bit after work. MSNBC spent the entire breathlessly discussing Michael Cohen's testimony and CNN was talking about whatever poll just came out with 2 GOP strategists and a former Biden worker. No actual news just negativity by one station and halftime report style reporting out of the other. She turns to me (as CNN all but says Biden is screwed and Trump is a lock) and asks me what the heck is going on? I give her a bit of commentary but she still doesn't get how no one seems to see that the world is not as bad as the media seems to portray it and that none of this makes any sense. Then, the perfect example of my disdain for all things corporate happens...MSNBC finally goes away from talking about the trial to mention how Biden is pumping infrastructure and the Key Bridge project. (from a PC with a senator from Maryland) For 10 seconds before the program ends and then they go to the next show which is going to once again break down the testimony. In 1 hour or so of television the only actual piece of news relevant to the average vote not even 1 minute of time could be devoted to real news and it was the sign off moment of a show.
Now look I get that the trial is a historic thing and I bet it gets friggin great ratings but how are we supposed to have an informed populace if the media isn't at least partially helping out? I mean we hear constantly that "The Dems suck at messaging" but there are plenty of Dems out there talking all of the time but since actually doing the job of the President is not going to get people to tune in it gets lost in the miasma of fake punditry and the Sportcenter mentality of the media these days. I mean they spend 45 minutes talking about the newest poll (not really explaining them of course just showing numbers and then talking about who Trump will make VP) and then unironically wonder aloud "why do people think things aren't better when they are" but then never take the time to actually talk about why things are better. If the people have to find out the truth on their own what is the point to the Fourth Estate anyways? Do they think people will trust them more if they just don't say anything at all because history seems to show that is not helping out their bottom line in any way.
I don't need them making snarky comments because Trump and the GOP lied about his rally attendance, that crap is played out. I dont need you doing gotcha moments on the GOP people you have on...just report some phucking facts and analyze them to the same degree you do the latest "Bobs Big/NY Times Pitchbot Poll". Maybe stop framing everything through the lens of Trump and just talk about the things Biden and the Dems are doing. You have had 8 years to get this right and you are failing worse now than you did in 2016.
The sportsification of the news has really been gross. It became incredibly noticeable to me in the 2016 election coverage. All the networks and cable channels had this gigantic set with multiple areas and stages and screens and treated it like, as Handyman noted, a halftime report. Flip to PBS and it's a table with 4-5 people calmly discussing (discussing the end of the world).
I don't want elections to be sport. I don't want them treated as such. But all of the media covering it has decided that this is the way. It's gross.
I don't want elections to be sport. I don't want them treated as such. But all of the media covering it has decided that this is the way. It's gross.
Stop blaming the media. The media gives the public what it wants. It has to, otherwise they go out of business.
Until I went to college, tv was four stations, it came on with the national anthem at about 6 a.m., signed off at 11 p.m., or maybe midnight with one channel, and was static for the rest of the night. The only thing we got were the facts, because there wasn't enough programming or programming time among the four stations to deliver anything else.
If you want to have countless channels and 24 hour coverage, you have to fill the time with something. Turns out that something is just idiots rambling nonsensically hour after hour. But people watch youtube, too, so what can you do.
I dislike my governor, but he's assured himself of a second term for his handling of the Baltimore Bridge collapse.
The channel will be open by Memorial Day and the port of Baltimore will again be open for business.
The construction of the William Donald Schaefer bridge will extend into his 2nd term and its dedication will be the kickoff for his campaign for higher office.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
This. Unless you want to restrict the franchise by education, this is what you will get for all news coverage: politics, war, the economy. A third of the population are actual morons. It's what they want.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
If you read what I wrote...I said almost the exact same thing man. The issue is the media is supposed to inform the people not bend to their whims.
Trust me the people won't escape my ire if it goes bad either. I have little sympathy for the stupid who vote against logic and their own best interests.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Kettle Medallion
My take is that Biden knows that the MSM isn't going to do him any favors. Which is why I couldn't help but notice that the major construction work on I-75 just north of metro Detroit has multiple conspicuous signs informing drivers that the work was funded by the bi-partisan infrastructure bill.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
I think his beef with the Times was eye opening to a lot of people in his administration. I think Harris also woke him up to it and seeing how she gets covered by the media doesn't make them look any better. But she just keeps showing up, talking to people, doing the talk show circuit and doing the work.
I think Biden and his team know if they want to win they need to do a Truman Style model. Ignore the pundits and polls and just go door to door and talk to the people. Funny how the polls in '48 never showed any gains for him (they all stopped polling long before ED because it was a "lock" according to the polls) yet he won rather handedly.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Kettle Medallion
The difference is that Dewey promptly conceded, and didn't scream that the election was fraudulent and rigged. He also didn't have more than half of his supporters believing that lie, and a not insignificant number of them ready to riot. Plus, Strom Thurmond is the Republican candidate playing for keeps this time, rather than a Dixiecrat trying to play spoiler.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
$500 on the over