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2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

It never ceases to amaze me how so many vapid, empty-headed, uncreative, selfish, and impossibly stupid people rise to the top of the GOP:

Q. “What can we do about lowering the cost of daycare?”

JD Vance:…”Maybe Grandpa and Grandma want to help a little bit more. Maybe there’s an uncle/aunt who wants to help a little bit more…”
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Nate Silver's polling aggregate continues to show Harris absolutely crushing the popular vote, but the chasm in electoral votes keeps widening against her.
 
aparch said:
Nate Silver's polling aggregate continues to show Harris absolutely crushing the popular vote, but the chasm in electoral votes keeps widening against her.
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Is he assuming there will be another 2-3% bump to the GOP that doesn’t show up in polling when the results come in? Because right now his model has her taking GA, MI, PA and WI.
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
Is he assuming there will be another 2-3% bump to the GOP that doesn’t show up in polling when the results come in? Because right now his model has her taking GA, MI, PA and WI.
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Qn1ejFa.jpeg
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
Is he assuming there will be another 2-3% bump to the GOP that doesn’t show up in polling when the results come in? Because right now his model has her taking GA, MI, PA and WI.
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Think of him like a bookie and you will get it. He and his crew are not playing honest and fair, they are playing for engagement and clicks. That is why they accept polls that make no sense to weigh down averages, why they let Faux News misinterpret their findings and why they put their thumb on the scale to have their own findings go against everything their own data even tells them.

Its all about getting enough people from both sides to click on their site. Just like a sports book wants people betting both ways. (I love people who believe spreads are about who is "better" they are always invited to poker night!) It isn't about an accurate forecast it is about getting people engaged in what they are doing. No one will remember what 538 said a year from now but the engagement can be used to drive up ad costs or get more money from the Peter Thiels of the world...you know, Nate Silver's Crypto-Daddy!

I have yet to see any poll that is even partially reputable that shows Trump winning enough battleground states to win.** That in no way means he can't or won't, not in the slightest. But I think the best poll I saw for him was the CNN poll that came out either yesterday or two days ago (which did not include North Carolina) that had Trump crushing in Arizona by 5 points (LOL) and had Harris crushing Trump in Michigan by 5 points (don't buy it) and Wisconsin by 6 points! (really dont buy it) Harris also lead by 1 point in Nevada and GA and Pennsylvania was tied. If those numbers are true that means Harris only needs to split NC and PA to win the election (she has 257 while Trump has 246) and Trump needs to sweep. And again that is the best I have seen for him.





**Everyone knows how I feel about polls so I don't seek them out I just pay attention to what I am shown. That usually includes polls that have a network tie in like Faux, CNN, PBS, NBC, ABC along with Morning Consult. I listen to/follow a lot of stats people, election experts and people who are nerdy about demographic breakdowns and the real nitty gritty stuff that is ignored in a lot of polling. I avoid aggregates like the plague until we get within a couple of weeks of election day because I don't trust any of them to put in the work to really weigh which polls have any value especially, plus, as I said before, it is like following the PWR in January it is just going to be super volatile. 538 especially because they are clowns high on their own supply. They are probably still wondering how they got the midterms so very very wrong...that is when Nate Silver isn't shilling crypto or giving us his craptastic takes on COVID...
 
aparch said:
Qn1ejFa.jpeg
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Jesus that is ugly to look at. So 538 is assuming NC and PA go to Trump but they have it as light pink so I assume that is "lean" or whatever BS term they chose to use? Along with GA, AZ and Nevada? So despite no polling telling them any of that is likely they are somehow finding it is? This is why aggregation is stupid.
 
I know I don't understand this stuff in any way shape of form but I'm trying to comprehend how it seems he has such a huge lead in the electoral college.
 
Handyman said:
Jesus that is ugly to look at. So 538 is assuming NC and PA go to Trump but they have it as light pink so I assume that is "lean" or whatever BS term they chose to use? Along with GA, AZ and Nevada? So despite no polling telling them any of that is likely they are somehow finding it is? This is why aggregation is stupid.
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That's not 538. Nate Silver sold that to ABC. 538 has Harris ahead with a 55% chance of winning.
 
Scarlet said:
I know I don't understand this stuff in any way shape of form but I'm trying to comprehend how it seems he has such a huge lead in the electoral college.
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Same way gerrymandering works.

Harris wins California, New York, etc. by high enough margins, and loses Texas and Florida by far lower margins, that the popular vote isn't in question.

But if all 7 swing states go for Trump by a couple thousand votes, he wins the electoral college big.

The mistake in 2016 was that all the aggregators (minus 538) assumed all state polling was independent, and didn't account for the fact that a miss in PA might also indicate a miss in Wisconsin and Michigan in the same direction. Or that a miss in AZ might also mean Nevada was off similarly. So they assumed there was no way that all 7 could miss in the same direction.

Not wanting to make the same mistake twice, they've probably overcorrected and now assume that a miss in one will mean a miss in all in the same direction.
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
Re: Trump mailers. Not sure I can upload pics, but they’re just top ten lists from his platforms on his website on one side, and then ten bad things about Harris on the other.

Noticed today these are coming from the actual state party, not the Trump campaign. Part of me says they have to do mailers because the party is too poor for TV, but seems like postage for that many people would exceed tv spots at a certain point.
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Just a lame joke. As a non reader, Dump would be limited to pictures in a mailer.
 
Handyman said:
Who was it then? (honest question cause boy it is ugly to look at)
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Silver Bulletin, Silver’s new site that’s basically 538 but some tweak in the formula to make it new.

I still don’t know where his conclusion comes from she’ll lose the electoral college when this page says she’s winning (granted by a thin margin) in almost all the swing states. Maybe it’s some probability of being able to pull off that many margin of error states even though she’s leading.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
 
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