2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

[Handyman]

Same way gerrymandering works.

Harris wins California, New York, etc. by high enough margins, and loses Texas and Florida by far lower margins, that the popular vote isn't in question.

But if all 7 swing states go for Trump by a couple thousand votes, he wins the electoral college big.

The mistake in 2016 was that all the aggregators (minus 538) assumed all state polling was independent, and didn't account for the fact that a miss in PA might also indicate a miss in Wisconsin and Michigan in the same direction. Or that a miss in AZ might also mean Nevada was off similarly. So they assumed there was no way that all 7 could miss in the same direction.

Not wanting to make the same mistake twice, they've probably overcorrected and now assume that a miss in one will mean a miss in all in the same direction.

There is definitely some of that going on...though the weird thing is they made that overcorrection also in 2022 and screwed the whole thing up so I wonder if it is as pronounced as we think. I mean all state polling is, in fact, independent. Just because Harris might win WI big doesn't mean she will win Michigan let alone big. (I mean the odds are in that favor but other factors are at play) Pennsylvania being tied doesn't mean the other "Blue Wall" States are going to be super close. There is an obvious amount independence at play. If they are trending the same way then you can link them but I mean Michigan has a bigger say, Gaza problem than WI does so that needs to be taken into account. This is where analysis of the data plays in, something aggregators tend to struggle with.

To me the mistake in 2016 wasn't that per se, it was that people believed that in the end the Democrats who were undecided or non-plussed over Hillary would eventually come home on Election Day in certain states. You could tell pollsters and pundits definitely believed this and I think some of the people like Silver believed that as well because that was conventional wisdom. I don't think they expected a depressed turnout on par with 2012 (2012 had 125 million votes and 2016 had 128 million roughly) they were expecting a 2008-like number closer to 130 million. That might not seem like a huge number in total difference but she really only lost by like 70k votes in 3 states so every vote mattered. Plus you had Jill Stein getting roughly that amount of votes in those states which really screwed up the calculus.

Based on the map shared I agree they seem to be assuming that a miss in 1 is a miss in all...and that is just a ridiculous overcorrection. I could see maybe doing it by region (Rust Belt, Sun Belt...etc.) but issues in the states are way too different to assume any sort of homogenized outcome. Arizona and Nevada have abortion on the ballot, NC has a crazy loonbat polling in the mid 30s as the GOP Gubernatorial Candidate, Michigan has Gaza, WI finally has fair maps and a Supreme Court which protects voting rights...just way too many variables. They are set up to fail.

 

[Chuck Murray]

 

[Handyman]

Silver Bulletin, Silver’s new site that’s basically 538 but some tweak in the formula to make it new.

I still don’t know where his conclusion comes from she’ll lose the electoral college when this page says she’s winning (granted by a thin margin) in almost all the swing states. Maybe it’s some probability of being able to pull off that many margin of error states even though she’s leading.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Ah, so he sold 538 and started another one...while also dealing in crypto. Not shady at all...

 

[unofan]

Any odds less than 60% in either direction is essentially a toss-up. Hell, less than 70%.

50/50 = coin toss
55/45 = hitting a 6 or 8 on a craps table for the underdog
60/40 = hitting a 5 or 9
66/33 = hitting a 4 or 10
75/25 = hitting a 3 or 11 on a crapsless craps table.
89/11 = hitting a hard 4 or 10.

Point being, they aren't tossups, but they are events that can and do occur. Hell, Trump's win in 2016 was essentially him filling an inside straight on the river.

 

[aparch]

Of all the characters to adore in "Breakfast at Tiffany's," having Chucky pick Mickey Rooney is pretty on brand for him.

 

[Handyman]

50/50 = coin toss
55/45 = hitting a 6 or 8 on a craps table for the underdog
60/40 = hitting a 5 or 9
66/33 = hitting a 4 or 10
75/25 = hitting a 3 or 11 on a crapsless craps table.
89/11 = hitting a hard 4 or 10.

Point being, they aren't tossups, but they are events that can and do occur. Hell, Trump's win in 2016 was essentially him filling an inside straight on the river.

Friggin nailed it better than I could ever do!

 

[Bronco]

My totally scientific and clearly correct survey: Driving to my sister's house in rural Ingham/Eaton counties I saw 6 yard signs or flags for Trump and 4 yard signs for Harris. Those margins aren't going to cut it for Donny.

 

[Handyman]

True, but that's with dice or cards where you know the exact mathematical probability of everything you're using. With polls, especially nowadays, there's a lot more uncertainty with them, you don't even know their accuracy or worth by themselves, much less when another layer or two of (possibly incorrect) assumptions are paper over them. I'm not saying something at, say, 58% couldn't happen; it very well could; I just don't trust how much the chance is really 58% because the thing it is based off of might be useless.

Which is why sites that show these probabilities are doomed to fail if they make actual predictions. You are taking a representative sample, extrapolating it out, ignoring some or all of the variables, and then trying to figure out how all people are going to vote. The more they try and add weight to certain polls the more convoluted they become.

Now, I will say, Silver used to be very good on the eve of the election interpreting the data and probabilities and explaining both why it might turn out that way and why it might not and how that will look. If you go back to the night before the 2020 election his analysis was great based on the polling and factoring in what happened in 2016 where Trump overperformed. Even used it to call the likely possibilities in the House and Senate and mostly nailed it. No guarantees just how he would bet based on the numbers. In that regard I think these things can be very valuable...sort of like what Scooby used to always argue about the PWR, that it only truly works at the end of the season when every game has been played and all variables have been accounted for. We are so far out though and there are so many people unaccounted for in these polls just from a new registrant standpoint (let alone overall sampling) that they are kind of useless for anything but showing basic trends, and even that is suspect in the current political climate. Unless the aggregators are breaking down the crosstabs of each and every poll that comes out every day (which is just not feasible or fair to ask) we just don't know.

To go back to gambling, there are thousands of people who can look at the probabilities and give you winning bets in Vegas on a specific day. Hell my SO, knowing very little about anything picked 3 of 4 games right in the NCAA Tournament once in Vegas. But any expert who pretends they can predict more than 50/50 long term is a fraud and is stealing your money. Same holds true here imho.

 

[Handyman]

My totally scientific and clearly correct survey: Driving to my sister's house in rural Ingham/Eaton counties I saw 6 yard signs or flags for Trump and 4 yard signs for Harris. Those margins aren't going to cut it for Donny.

Trump's team reading that:

(and yes I picked this both because it always makes me laugh and because Randy Quaid is more batchit crazy than Trump)

 

[Jimjamesak]

My totally scientific and clearly correct survey: Driving to my sister's house in rural Ingham/Eaton counties I saw 6 yard signs or flags for Trump and 4 yard signs for Harris. Those margins aren't going to cut it for Donny.

I saw a noticeable dip in Dump merchandise at the state fair here in Alaska, and that’s in the heart of Dump country. The enthusiasm doesn’t seem to be there like in 2016 or 2020.

 

[RaceBoarder]

Again, Dumpy has slowly been eroding people from his base over time while not replenishing them.

It's like a bucket full of water with a slow drip leak. Eventually the water level will be noticeable when compared to a decent distance in the past, but when compared in the short term, it seems negligible.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Again, Dumpy has slowly been eroding people from his base over time while not replenishing them.

It's like a bucket full of water with a slow drip leak. Eventually the water level will be noticeable when compared to a decent distance in the past, but when compared in the short term, it seems negligible.

I do wonder how many have truly left the base versus how many are being quiet about it. Like, I know plenty of people, around my work especially, who are 100% Dump voters but aren’t out waving the flag anymore.

 

[Handyman]

Probably not as many as before but still enough.

And can you blame them...even Lincoln wasn't this good an orator! https://www.threads.net/@kamalahq/po...Wrvy65aEsnoRjQ

Q: What specific legislation will you commit to to make child care affordable?
Trump: Well, I would do that and we're sitting down, you know, I was, somebody, we had Marco Rubio and my daughter, Ivanka… But I think when you talk about the kind of numbers that I'm talking about that because the child care is, child care couldn't, you know, there's something you have to have it in this country, you have to have it... I want to stay with child care… So we'll take care of it. Thank you

In what universe is this not problematic. Biden was way more coherent than that!

Edit: there are tons of clips of this circulating there is much worse stuff. The guy can barely finish a sentence...

 

[Handyman]

https://www.threads.net/@republican...QGzigg1Phu4eNbyoTuD2Y4u2rFRs5Em_HSrnOQeZHFbtw

BREAKING
The DOJ has charged Dimitri Simes, a Russian-born U.S. citizen and former adviser to Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign with working for a sanctioned Russian state television network and laundering the proceeds.

Russia, Russia Russia!!

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

I saw a noticeable dip in Dump merchandise at the state fair here in Alaska, and that’s in the heart of Dump country. The enthusiasm doesn’t seem to be there like in 2016 or 2020.

Funny enough, around the twin cities I’m seeing more trump than Harris signs in my limited viewpoint.

im not talking many, but there’s just so few yard signs out around here at this point

thry all popped up after Harris named walz as her veep choice- so I think these are all people who are sensitive to the press walz is getting and feeling the need to put out trump signs

someone in white bear lake has a big color photo in their yard of trump raising his fist after he was “shot”

 

[Handyman]

https://www.threads.net/@aaron.rupa...QGz7Nh4nSwrIG1mXGOgULgKbqrE4F1e_finMkttgoTpYQ

Good lord he is just spouting lies and some people clapped. Ah racism...

 

[Jimjamesak]

Probably not as many as before but still enough.

And can you blame them...even Lincoln wasn't this good an orator! https://www.threads.net/@kamalahq/po...Wrvy65aEsnoRjQ



In what universe is this not problematic. Biden was way more coherent than that!

Edit: there are tons of clips of this circulating there is much worse stuff. The guy can barely finish a sentence...

They’ll always find a way to gloss over it for Dump. I think there’s a few reasons why people aren’t as enthusiastic anymore though:

1. That s-‘s expensive. Tshirts, hats, flags etc. in this economy? And you have to update the wares, can’t be seen wearing the 2020 gear.

2. People are finally starting to feel the effects of being cut off from friends and family members. That kind of thing really didn’t matter in 2020 due to COVID and quarantines, but now they’ve had a few years of not having the kids visit anymore and the cold shoulder from once friendly coworkers.

3. It’s hard to be enthusiastic about a loser. You put up with a lot of negatives when your team is winning, not so much when you’re taking Ls.

4. It isn’t as much fun to “own the libs” when the “libs” are actually pretty PO’d, way more militant than before, and way more organized than before.

 

[Handyman]

100%!

BTW whoever was in control of the TENET Media account posted this: https://www.threads.net/@noturtleso...QGzfAB9PIVdJl8fyi5FMpvDSBKaIbClFWZPfDEEkOYCDg

"fired employee here access still. There is evidence we were actually funded by Russia and it's a disgrace. We are traitors to America. "

If it's real...that is just outstanding.

Even better Tim Pool this morning flip flopped on Ukraine and now fully supports us backing them. Funny...

 

[rufus]

https://www.threads.net/@aaron.rupa...QGz7Nh4nSwrIG1mXGOgULgKbqrE4F1e_finMkttgoTpYQ

Good lord he is just spouting lies and some people clapped. Ah racism...

"We will tace a fiscal armageddon"

 

[RaceBoarder]

They’ll always find a way to gloss over it for Dump. I think there’s a few reasons why people aren’t as enthusiastic anymore though:

1. That s-‘s expensive. Tshirts, hats, flags etc. in this economy? And you have to update the wares, can’t be seen wearing the 2020 gear.

2. People are finally starting to feel the effects of being cut off from friends and family members. That kind of thing really didn’t matter in 2020 due to COVID and quarantines, but now they’ve had a few years of not having the kids visit anymore and the cold shoulder from once friendly coworkers.

3. It’s hard to be enthusiastic about a loser. You put up with a lot of negatives when your team is winning, not so much when you’re taking Ls.

4. It isn’t as much fun to “own the libs” when the “libs” are actually pretty PO’d, way more militant than before, and way more organized than before.

Overall society is shunning MAGA's because of their beliefs. #2 here is a real thing. The lightbulb tends to start to flicker when 80% of their social circle has made the effort to walk away.