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2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

Then phuck her. She will be drowned out by the other people in Michigan and likely see any influence she has die in November. That will surely help the people of Gaza Tlaib...how very Trumpian of you.

Do these people care about any of the other atrocities around the world? Do they care that the homes they live in and places they work were stolen from Native Americans? They never quite answer that question...

Speaking of crowds Trump is going more and more unhinged because of the crowd sizes! He is still pretending he had 100k in NJ a couple months ago and is now accusing Harris of...paying people to show up! :D. Every accusation is a confession!

Oh and Fauxs attacks against Walz are just sad. Beyond the Tamon Tim stuff he is "twitchy" he "waves weird" and isn't "manly enough". Middle school at best. Chuckles agrees I'm sure...
 
Kepler said:
The weirdos are going to unravel.




More.

Poll details.
Click to expand...

So there's a really deep, wonky analysis about how the Washington state primaries are a really good bellwether for the general. It was one of Nate Cohn's good articles before he completely fried his brain.

essentially it works like this:
All (most?) primaries are open with with all parties and candidates in a single list. The top two vote getters face off in the general regardless of affiliation. You can have D/R, D/D, R/R, etc. so you can kind of see why this would be useful.

While they aren't 1:1 in margin (WA is generally blue), there is a decent correlation between them. If you add up the Ds and add up the Rs totals, you can get a rough margin. That margin has a simple linear regression applied and it's roughly this

D+10 in WA: Very red year
D+10-12: reddish year
D+13-16: Blue year
D+17: Very blue year

right now the Senate primary is D+19, Gov D+12, AG D+16, SoS D+21. I haven't totaled the House yet.

edit: others have weighed in and it's similar to past results where we end up with D+5 nationally. Which is very blue.

2020 was D+2.1
2022 was R+1.6
 
state of hockey said:
Especially because they met with these people beforehand and had a good dialogue. The campaign said they’re open to negotiation and keeping communication channels open. Then they pulled that. Congratulations, you played yourself. You aren’t getting a second of her time now.
Click to expand...

This is the part that just blows my fuckin mind.

They get a sit down, actual face time with the campaign of a candidate for POTUS, and this is what they do? Are they completely mad?!

That opportunity isn't just handed out like candy. Even if it's mid level staffers (obviously it wasn't Harris herself, I wouldn't think) you state your case and keep that dialogue open. You don't burn that bridge and then come back and nuke it. You just guaranteed you'll never be heard from again.
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
Nate Cohn is bad now too? What did he do?
Click to expand...

So his latest excretion was "With Walz, Harris Passes on a Chance to Redefine Herself"

"A few days ago, Donald J. Trump said vice-presidential nominees have "virtually no impact" electorally.

By selecting Minnesota's governor, Tim Walz, as her running mate on Tuesday, Kamala Harris put Mr. Trump one step closer to being proved right.

A few days ago, it wasn't so obvious Mr. Trump's claim was on safe footing. While it's true that most vice-presidential nominees don't have a major impact, they often help the ticket in the vice-presidential nominee's home state. The effect might be only a percentage point or two, but Vice President Harris was considering an unusually strong slate of options from key states - and the polls are close enough for one or two points to be decisive.

In the end, she did not choose someone like Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania or Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. Instead, she selected someone from Minnesota, which is not a top-tier battleground.
"
 
More Cohn lawn patties:

The party has held power for almost 12 of the last 16 years, and it has exhausted much of its agenda; there aren't many popular, liberal policies left in the cupboard. As long as voters remain dissatisfied with the status quo and the Democratic nominee, a campaign to defend the system might not be the slam dunk Democrats once thought it was.
Click to expand...
 
dxmnkd316 said:
So his latest excretion was "With Walz, Harris Passes on a Chance to Redefine Herself"

"A few days ago, Donald J. Trump said vice-presidential nominees have "virtually no impact" electorally.

By selecting Minnesota's governor, Tim Walz, as her running mate on Tuesday, Kamala Harris put Mr. Trump one step closer to being proved right.

A few days ago, it wasn't so obvious Mr. Trump's claim was on safe footing. While it's true that most vice-presidential nominees don't have a major impact, they often help the ticket in the vice-presidential nominee's home state. The effect might be only a percentage point or two, but Vice President Harris was considering an unusually strong slate of options from key states - and the polls are close enough for one or two points to be decisive.

In the end, she did not choose someone like Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania or Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. Instead, she selected someone from Minnesota, which is not a top-tier battleground.
"
Click to expand...

538 wrote nearly the same article. Had a couple paragraphs with like eight reasons on why he was a great pick then followed it with “but it doesn’t matter because Minnesota is blue and also George Floyd protests.”
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
538 wrote nearly the same article. Had a couple paragraphs with like eight reasons on why he was a great pick then followed it with “but it doesn’t matter because Minnesota is blue and also George Floyd protests.”
Click to expand...

538...what happens when nerds get high on their own supply.
 
Diaper Donnie showed up breathing very heavy at his presser. Rambling about nonsense

very normal stuff

says walz is heavy into the transgender world. Is that like a store ? Or a theme park like Wally World?
 
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