2024 Election Thread

[Handyman]

How irate is the MSM going to be after Haley drops out tomorrow and their quadrennial money maker that is the "Presidential Primary Horse Race" ends on 1/24?

She won't drop out before South Carolina unless she gets pimpslapped in Nevada and New Hampshire. She can hold out another month and make out like a bandit. She will get a heroes welcome home, probably lose or maybe eek out a victory but bow out before Super Tuesday which will still tick off the MSM.

The media will pivot much like Kepler said but will also try and guess the Trump Veep choice and prime that tank for a while. They will make that the horserace pretending he won't take some hardcore MAGAt who will not be another Mike Pence. I would not be surprised if he chose a woman thinking that will help him win back the suburbs but they will be anti-abortion so it won't help one bit. If Nikki wanted the job she should have shut her mouth on Trump's Dementia and Abortion.

 

[rufus]

I did my bit today and wrote in Sleepy Joe here in NH.

There was a robocall last night using an AI generated Biden voice telling people not to vote for him in the primary. Also seeing a lot of "protest Biden and the DNC's exclusion of our great NH primary by voting for some other candidate". Which I assume is just astroturfing from some outfit with a game to play, not sure who. Maybe No Labels.

 

[aparch]

So Trump went from "We're gonna win by +30," a few weeks ago to "It's an *sswhipping if we beat Haley by +10," this afternoon, to having a goddammed meltdown on Truth Social AND on TV despite winning.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Dementia Donnie says if Nikki doesn’t drop out she’ll be under investigation for stuff she won’t want to talk about

she’ll be sucking him off within the month. Unreal

 

[Handyman]

I mean he won and is up by 11% so he pretty much killed her. She is DOA now. She had to win one of Iowa or NH to have any sort of shot and even with Ronny out she couldn't muster even a competitive loss.

All of these clowns weren't ready for prime time anyways but jesus man everyone from the media top the "independents" to the Never Trumpers were begging for some candidate to run as a completely different animal (the media would have fellated them harder than a GOPer at a gloryhole) and they all ran as "Trump Without Charisma". Why would anyone vote for people who have the same platform and BS Trump does, will 100% vote for him in November and who are not nearly as good at being Trump as he is? Good god the strategy was horrid.

 

[Handyman]

Exit polling showed 67% of voters in the New Hampshire Primary do not support abortion bans. That is another bad data point for Donnie. Even CNN was discussing it...

7 out of 10 Nikki Haley voters again said they won't vote for Trump. No that won't hold...but it is not a good trend. Fox even said Biden had a better night in NH than Trump.

 

[RaceBoarder]

The 7 of 10 R voters checking Hailey won't hold, but if Dump pulls 6 of 10 "R-Leaning" independents, he simply doesn't have enough overall to win. How is he gonna win over true independents if he can't even get 85% of his own party to go for him?

No matter how they want to twist it, that math aint gonna math.

 

[ericredaxe]

The 7 of 10 R voters checking Hailey won't hold, but if Dump pulls 6 of 10 "R-Leaning" independents, he simply doesn't have enough overall to win. How is he gonna win over true independents if he can't even get 85% of his own party to go for him?

No matter how they want to twist it, that math aint gonna math.

As with many, the election will all be about turnout and which group is more motivated. So far the issue of women's reproductive care has shown to be a pretty big motivator. I'd guess that will likely be the same in 2024 but who knows.

 

[ericredaxe]

fwiw: Independent voters dominate U.S. while Dems slip to record low: Gallup

Especially in states with open primaries - why anyone would ever register with a party instead of independent / unenrolled is beyond me.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Fun fact: I am the only person I know of who went from being a Third Party Absolutist who would never lower himself to voting for a major party, to a straight ticket major party voter (in self-defense against the Fasc).

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

As with many, the election will all be about turnout and which group is more motivated. So far the issue of women's reproductive care has shown to be a pretty big motivator. I'd guess that will likely be the same in 2024 but who knows.

Well, two more red hellholes introduced laws to ban travel to receive abortion care, so I’m gonna guess that womens sentiment won’t die down

 

[French Rage]

Does anyone know how this prediction turned out?

It will be very interesting (and FUN) to see how the MSM spins RFK's looming victory in the first-in-the-nation primary.

 

[MissThundercat]

And other than the base, it appears most voters aren't concerned about trans people, drag queens, or the Alphabet Mafia in general, despite Republicans' attempt to make us appear scary.

 

[Kepler]

Well, two more red hellholes introduced laws to ban travel to receive abortion care, so I’m gonna guess that womens sentiment won’t die down

Gilead is as much a motivator for humans as Roe was for Orcs. Every Republican before 2010 knew that. None since 2010 does.

 

[Kepler]

And other than the base, it appears most voters aren't concerned about trans people, drag queens, or the Alphabet Mafia in general, despite Republicans' attempt to make us appear scary.

The moving finger writes and, having writ, moves on. You guys are old hat (old hate?) -- you're not going to be a factor. You've joined welfare queens, flag burners, Satanists, drug runners, gay marrieds, caravans, Muzzies, BLM, Antifa, and CRT on the ash heap of moral panics.

"In the future, everyone will be a moral threat for fifteen minutes."

 

[Kepler]

NH was last night. I had no idea.

Haley got 43%. Next is NV / VI and then SC where she should do as well as she will any other place. Then comes MI and, I guess, that's her big chance -- beat him in a purple state to demonstrate she's the best chance in the general.

My dream scenario is Haley has a long winning streak of 55/45s. That maximizes the danger to the GOP for an all-out schism of the MAGAts that could outlast Dump.

 

[Handyman]

NH was last night. I had no idea.

Haley got 43%. Next is NV / VI and then SC where she should do as well as she will any other place. Then comes MI and, I guess, that's her big chance -- beat him in a purple state to demonstrate she's the best chance in the general.

My dream scenario is Haley has a long winning streak of 55/45s. That maximizes the danger to the GOP for an all-out schism of the MAGAts that could outlast Dump.

Haley isn't making it to Michigan. If SC wasn't so close she would be dead after Nevada. She lost by double digits in a heads up race in a state she had a major endorsement from and who seems to not be leaning MAGAt on many issues. (like abortion) This after a pretty mediocre showing in Iowa where again she got pimpslapped and should have been able to make major inroads. She spent way too long waiting to rip Trump and by the time she did he had already started calling her Nimrata and her inability to even handle basic questioning had sunk her. If DeSantis had defragged his programming to be more human he would have made mincemeat out of her and he friggin sucks.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Even if Haley made it to Michigan, she would be destroyed here. The Michigan GOP leadership is currently broke and in schism, and most of their voters are all-in on Dump.

 

[Handyman]

The 7 of 10 R voters checking Hailey won't hold, but if Dump pulls 6 of 10 "R-Leaning" independents, he simply doesn't have enough overall to win. How is he gonna win over true independents if he can't even get 85% of his own party to go for him?

No matter how they want to twist it, that math aint gonna math.

As a cynic and a fatalist it is hard for me to not feel like I am jinxing it but the math is not mathing in any way. If Trump didn't have "Yes Men" surrounding him they would be worried to high heaven with what they are seeing. A lot can (and will happen) between now and November but as long as Trump is the face of Dobbs he is in all sorts of trouble...and he lost last time bigly without that albatross. And we know not all GOP voters are as hardcore anti women as the MAGAts are. (as seen in Kansas, Ohio, Kentucky...etc) Trump needs about 90% buy in from all right leaning voters in all of the right states to even have a chance to match his 2020 total and that was good enough to lose by a lot. Biden just needs to hold the Blue Wall he had states to spare last time. And the Blue Wall States are not trending better for Donnie...even Sconnie.

The GOP has one issue...Immigration and they are futzing that one up live on TV right now. Their attempted impeachment of Mayorkas is going about as well as the Hunter Biden hearing did. I mean it is so bad they had to bring in AGs from non border states to testify. Meanwhile all it is turning into is a 4 hour reminder (to non-MAGAts) that the GOP vetoed Immigration reform which included more money for border security and ways to streamline the process so asylum was easier to accept or deny.

Not to mention that Trump can't even read a teleprompter anymore. Ronald Reagan in his second term didn't sound this loony and he had friggin dementia!

 

[Handyman]

Even if Haley made it to Michigan, she would be destroyed here. The Michigan GOP leadership is currently broke and in schism, and most of their voters are all-in on Dump.

Yup.