2023 D3 Bracketology

[Pioneer247]

Yeah, sometimes I can be an idiot, but I was really looking for a rise out of you know who,

I hope you looking foolish by being wrong in an attempt to get a rise out of someone made you feel better I guess?

 

[Bartman]

Going into the last week of the regular season, here's what I think the bracket would look like

CCC: Endicott (1)
MASCAC: Plymouth State (6)
MIAC: St. Scholastica (T-26)
NCHA: Adrian (T-4)
NEHC: Hobart (T-2)
NESCAC: Trinity (11)
SUNYAC: Oswego (14)
UCHC: Utica (T-2*)
WIAC: Stevens Point (10)

At-Large:
Curry (T-4*)
Plattsburgh (7)
UNE (8)

First Round:

Oswego @ Endicott
Trinity @ Utica
UNE @ Curry
Plattsburgh @ Plymouth State

Quarterfinals:

Plattsburgh/Plymouth State @ Oswego/Endicott
UNE/Curry @ Trinity/Utica
Adrian @ Hobart
St. Scholastica @ Stevens Point

First, thank you for your efforts to do this, it entertains me, and I found myself waiting for the update. You may have covered this in a prior post, but why would Hobart and Stevens Point get a first round bye and Utica and Endicott not ? D3 Travel/geography issues, I assume.

 

[Tom Coughlin]

Ideally you would have CSS and UWSP play in the opening round, with the winner travelling to Adrian. This works mileage-wise for UWSP, but not CSS.

It stinks, but this is an issue whenever there are only 3 West teams and Adrian is one of them.

 

[Pioneer247]

First, thank you for your efforts to do this, it entertains me, and I found myself waiting for the update. You may have covered this in a prior post, but why would Hobart and Stevens Point get a first round bye and Utica and Endicott not ? D3 Travel/geography issues, I assume.

Yeah with the 3 teams being in the West, and St. Scholastica and Adrian being more than 500 miles apart, it makes the construction very tricky and someone is going to get screwed in that scenario. The only other change you could technically do is have Oswego go to Adrian in Round 1 (they are 490 miles apart), with the winner going to Hobart, which in that case, the matchups would look like:

First Round:

Oswego @ Adrian
Trinity @ Utica
Plattsburgh @ Curry
UNE @ Plymouth State

Quarterfinals:

UNE/Plymouth State @ Endicott
Plattsburgh/Curry @ Trinity/Utica
Oswego/Adrian @ Hobart
St. Scholastica @ Stevens Point

In my opinion, giving Hobart and Adrian the bye wouldn't be the worst thing in the world in terms of integrity, because they are two top teams, but ideally, it would only be Adrian getting a bye in the West. If St. Scholastica loses the MIAC and we get a team closer to Adrian in that spot, this changes entirely.

 

[Bartman]

Thanks for the explanation. Now I just hope Hobart can win the NEHC tournament to keep things simple. But if Norwich wins to get into the tournament, do you think Hobart still gets in without a bye? Sorry for the selfish homer hypothetical question. Three weeks to wait for an NEHC tournament outcome feels like forever so I need to occupy my mind.Thanks.

 

[Pioneer247]

Thanks for the explanation. Now I just hope Hobart can win the NEHC tournament to keep things simple. But if Norwich wins to get into the tournament, do you think Hobart still gets in without a bye? Sorry for the selfish homer hypothetical question. Three weeks to wait for an NEHC tournament outcome feels like forever so I need to occupy my mind.Thanks.

I think if Hobart makes it to the NEHC championship game (assuming that game is against Norwich), they're a lock to get in, because a loss to Norwich wouldn't be a killer in terms of RPI and they've got such a gap between them and Adrian, it'd be hard to close it this late in the season with one loss to a good team. If they stumble before that though, they could be leaving the door open to slide down, and that could be the difference between playing a QF at the Cooler or playing a QF in Michigan

 

[JSicedog]

Thanks for the explanation. Now I just hope Hobart can win the NEHC tournament to keep things simple. But if Norwich wins to get into the tournament, do you think Hobart still gets in without a bye? Sorry for the selfish homer hypothetical question. Three weeks to wait for an NEHC tournament outcome feels like forever so I need to occupy my mind.Thanks.

Hobart is practically locked into the tournament, even if theh were to lose early in playoffs.

FWIW Utica is atop the pairwise standings…

 

[Tom Coughlin]

If St. Scholastica loses the MIAC and we get a team closer to Adrian in that spot, this changes entirely.

I haven't tested all of the MIAC teams, but none are within 500 miles. UWSP is barely within 500 miles of Adrian at 490 per the NCAA mileage calculator. All MIAC schools are considerably further from Adrian than UWSP is.

 

[Tom Coughlin]

And on that same note...UW-Stevens Point is the only WIAC school within 500 miles of Adrian. So all but one potential AQ from the other two West conferences are more than 500 miles from Adrian.

 

[FrontRowBirds]

When do we get the first NCAA rankings?

 

[Tom Coughlin]

When do we get the first NCAA rankings?

The NCAA rankings are not relevant anymore. At large bids are determined using the Pairwise Rankings.

https://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-iii-men/

 

[dmac1103]

Where is the Frozen Four this year? I didn't see anything when I looked.

 

[spwood]

I took another shot at Bracketology heading into the weekend. I think having Utica move up to #1 in the Pairwise makes it harder to have them play a first round game, but it gives them a tougher QF matchup with Adrian in the QF. My bracket looks like this (after changing it to reflect that Utica is still NOT within 500 miles of Adrian):

First Round:
Oswego @ Utica
Trinity @ Endicott
U of New England @ Curry
Plattsburgh @ Plymouth State

Quarter Finals:
St. Scholastica @ UW Stevens Point (guaranteeing that one team ranked in double digits makes the Phinal Phour)
Adrian @ Hobart
Plattsburgh/Plymouth State vs. Trinity/Endicott (host would depend on highest team in matchup?)
UNE/Curry vs. Oswego/Utica (host would depend on highest team in matchup?

As for the Phinal Phour hosting, is it on campus this year? I thought we had a few of those years coming up...

 

[Pioneer247]

I took another shot at Bracketology heading into the weekend. I think having Utica move up to #1 in the Pairwise makes it harder to have them play a first round game, but it gives them a tougher QF matchup with Adrian in the QF. My bracket looks like this:

First Round:
Oswego @ Endicott
Trinity @ Hobart
U of New England @ Curry
Plattsburgh @ Plymouth State

Quarter Finals:
St. Scholastica @ UW Stevens Point (guaranteeing that one team ranked in double digits makes the Phinal Phour)
Adrian & Utica
Plattsburgh/Plymouth State vs. Oswego/Endicott (host would depend on highest team in matchup?)
UNE/Curry vs. Trinity/Hobart (host would depend on highest team in matchup?

As for the Phinal Phour hosting, is it on campus this year? I thought we had a few of those years coming up...

Utica cannot play Adrian before the Frozen Four, they are over 500 miles apart

As for the Frozen Four, it is a campus site in the East this year, so whoever the highest ranked East team who is suited to host will get it

EDIT:

You can just flip Endicott and Utica in my last projection, and the bracket still makes perfect sense. There is no way to avoid a potential CCC v. CCC quarterfinal if 3 teams are in it, so this is what it has to be:

First Round:

Oswego @ Adrian
Trinity @ Endicott
Plattsburgh @ Curry
UNE @ Plymouth State

Quarterfinals:

UNE/Plymouth State @ Utica
Plattsburgh/Curry @ Trinity/Endicott
Oswego/Adrian @ Hobart
St. Scholastica @ Stevens Point

 

[spwood]

Utica cannot play Adrian before the Frozen Four, they are over 500 miles apart

As for the Frozen Four, it is a campus site in the East this year, so whoever the highest ranked East team who is suited to host will get it

Damn it!!! I think I've made that mistake before. I didn't even look. Now I can't find the mileage calculator either. I'll just have to change my whole bracket if Utica has to play the first round...

 

[spwood]

EDIT:

You can just flip Endicott and Utica in my last projection, and the bracket still makes perfect sense. There is no way to avoid a potential CCC v. CCC quarterfinal if 3 teams are in it, so this is what it has to be:

First Round:

Oswego @ Adrian
Trinity @ Endicott
Plattsburgh @ Curry
UNE @ Plymouth State

Quarterfinals:

UNE/Plymouth State @ Utica
Plattsburgh/Curry @ Trinity/Endicott
Oswego/Adrian @ Hobart
St. Scholastica @ Stevens Point

I just noticed that Endicott and Utica are now tied for #1 in the Pairwise. I guess my only question would be how did you decide which #1 team had to play in the first round? I'd love to hear the NCAA's answer to that question if it becomes a real thing!

 

[Pioneer247]

I just noticed that Endicott and Utica are now tied for #1 in the Pairwise. I guess my only question would be how did you decide which #1 team had to play in the first round? I'd love to hear the NCAA's answer to that question if it becomes a real thing!

I've been using the RPI as a tiebreaker, which I believe is how the ties are broken via the rankings on the site.

 

[tony/troy]

Utica cannot play Adrian before the Frozen Four, they are over 500 miles apart

As for the Frozen Four, it is a campus site in the East this year, so whoever the highest ranked East team who is suited to host will get it

EDIT:

You can just flip Endicott and Utica in my last projection, and the bracket still makes perfect sense. There is no way to avoid a potential CCC v. CCC quarterfinal if 3 teams are in it, so this is what it has to be:

First Round:

Oswego @ Adrian
Trinity @ Endicott
Plattsburgh @ Curry
UNE @ Plymouth State

Quarterfinals:

UNE/Plymouth State @ Utica
Plattsburgh/Curry @ Trinity/Endicott
Oswego/Adrian @ Hobart
St. Scholastica @ Stevens Point

Operative statement above is in red. The Questions are:

1) #1 PWR Utica draws almost 3,000 a night but plays in a building that is not available either Friday or Saturday of frozen four weekend. It is booked for the pro team that plays there.
2) #2 PWR Endicott and #4 PWR Curry do not average 500 customers per game COMBINED!!!. Is the NC$$ going to let either of them host??? Don't think so.
3) #3 PWR Hobart appears to not even bother counting customers. Is the NC$$ going to let them host??? Don't think so.
4) #6 PWR Plymouth State and #8 PWR University of New England both average around 600 customers a night. Is the NC$$ going to let either of them host??? Don't think so.
5) #7 PWR Plattsburgh is a possibility at over 1,300 customers a night but they have to make it to the frozen four first.
6) #9 PWR Norwich is a possibility at over 1,100 customers a night but they have to make it to the frozen four first.
7) #11 PWR Trinity is all that is left in the east but they don't even draw 200 customers a night. Even if they work their way from #11 to the frozen four, is the NC$$ going to let them host??? Don't think so.

So if neither team (Plattsburgh or Norwich) with an available building that even remotely draws flies makes it to the frozen four, then just who in the hell is going to host???

Come to think of it, could it possibly be some centrally located D1 building in either New York State or New England whose occupants will no longer be engaged in hockey activities by March 24???

I can think of two in the Capital District of New York that you can bet the ranch will most definitely not be needed for hockey purposes by late March. Neither of their occupants is very good.

 

[JSicedog]

Operative statement above is in red. The Questions are:

1) #1 PWR Utica draws almost 3,000 a night but plays in a building that is not available either Friday or Saturday of frozen four weekend. It is booked for the pro team that plays there.
2) #2 PWR Endicott and #4 PWR Curry do not average 500 customers per game COMBINED!!!. Is the NC$$ going to let either of them host??? Don't think so.
3) #3 PWR Hobart appears to not even bother counting customers. Is the NC$$ going to let them host??? Don't think so.
4) #6 PWR Plymouth State and #8 PWR University of New England both average around 600 customers a night. Is the NC$$ going to let either of them host??? Don't think so.
5) #7 PWR Plattsburgh is a possibility at over 1,300 customers a night but they have to make it to the frozen four first.
6) #9 PWR Norwich is a possibility at over 1,100 customers a night but they have to make it to the frozen four first.
7) #11 PWR Trinity is all that is left in the east but they don't even draw 200 customers a night. Even if they work their way from #11 to the frozen four, is the NC$$ going to let them host??? Don't think so.

So if neither team (Plattsburgh or Norwich) with an available building that even remotely draws flies makes it to the frozen four, then just who in the hell is going to host???

Come to think of it, could it possibly be some centrally located D1 building in either New York State or New England whose occupants will no longer be engaged in hockey activities by March 24???

I can think of two in the Capital District of New York that you can bet the ranch will most definitely not be needed for hockey purposes by late March. Neither of their occupants is very good.

Final 4 is Friday/Sunday this year. Friday would be the only issue in Utica. I would be surprised if they didn’t find a way to work around it.

 

[tjoneslo]

So if neither team (Plattsburgh or Norwich) with an available building that even remotely draws flies makes it to the frozen four, then just who in the hell is going to host???

The NCAA policy has always been "you win, you host" assuming a minimum standard for the facility have been met.