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2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather

I'm all of a sudden getting extremely anxious about my trip. I leave on September 8. Why do I feel that there will be storm that will delay/cancel my flight??? Siiiigh.
 
ScottK said:
No, not really. Franklin will cross Hispaniola and then head north, maybe impacting Nova Scotia as it starts to turn northeastward, but for the US, just some rough surf a week from now, nothing to worry about. The one near Africa, if it even develops, will likely not amount to much and be a fish storm.
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I guess those governors won't need their Sharpies. ;-) (24 seems like a lot in any case.)
 
My boss lives in Tampa (or near enough for that to be a generally accurate statement). Ocean temp where she is... over 90 degrees.
 
Swansong said:
My boss lives in Tampa (or near enough for that to be a generally accurate statement). Ocean temp where she is... over 90 degrees.
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That's just so difficult for me to wrap my head around.

how deep is that slug of 90? Like five feet? 20?
 
Kepler said:
Is there a linear relationship between water temp and energy and wind speed, or does it attenuate?
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A ton of other factors come into play - biggest one being wind shear (differing wind speeds at different altitudes). That tends to keep conditions "mixed up" (homogeneous). You only get the really nasty effects when there are big gradients - i.e. areas of high and low pressure, high and low density, etc.

Which doesn't mean that the contribution of water temperature might not be linear (or worse), but you can't definitively say that a storm with 90 deg water temperature is certain to be X times worse than one with 85 deg water.
 
LynahFan said:
A ton of other factors come into play - biggest one being wind shear (differing wind speeds at different altitudes). That tends to keep conditions "mixed up" (homogeneous). You only get the really nasty effects when there are big gradients - i.e. areas of high and low pressure, high and low density, etc.

Which doesn't mean that the contribution of water temperature might not be linear (or worse), but you can't definitively say that a storm with 90 deg water temperature is certain to be X times worse than one with 85 deg water.
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Most energy transfer is some sort of exponential though right? Kinetic is the square of velocity. Newton's law of cooling is inverse. Gravity is inverse square. Etc

I'm trying to think of energy transfer that isn't. Perfectly elastic collisions?
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Most energy transfer is some sort of exponential though right? Kinetic is the square of velocity. Newton's law of cooling is inverse. Gravity is inverse square. Etc

I'm trying to think of energy transfer that isn't. Perfectly elastic collisions?
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It’s also energy transfer that is important. So if the upper atmosphere is warm, the warm surface temp is muted due to the lower potential change.

The key start is the delta of potential energy, not just the energy of one component.
 
MichVandal said:
It’s also energy transfer that is important. So if the upper atmosphere is warm, the warm surface temp is muted due to the lower potential change.

The key start is the delta of potential energy, not just the energy of one component.
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Huh. TIL. So what you want is a huge pressure/temp differential to really crank the winds up? Cold AF upper atmosphere and warm water?
 
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Kepler said:
Huh. TIL. So what you want is a huge pressure/temp differential to really crank the winds up? Cold AF upper atmosphere and warm water?
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Yea, keep the physics simple- the storms are transferring energy from the water to the atmosphere so the higher the difference, the more energy tries to move. And that movement is the storm.

That’s why tornados are in central NA instead of southern FL where it’s much warmer and more humid.
 
MichVandal said:
Yea, keep the physics simple- the storms are transferring energy from the water to the atmosphere so the higher the difference, the more energy tries to move. And that movement is the storm.

That’s why tornados are in central NA instead of southern FL where it’s much warmer and more humid.
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If you had a temperature inversion where a cold front smashed against a warm front and dove under it, would you get an upside-down funnel?
 
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