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2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Hockey East Quarterfinals

Providence @ Boston College - Game 2:
BC advances to the Hockey East Semifinals with a 6-3 win over the Friars.

Connecticut @ Maine - Game 2:
Maine wins an overtime thriller over the Huskies to bring the Black Bears back to Boston, 3-2 in OT.

Northeastern @ Massachusetts - Game 2:
The Huskies stay alive with a 4-1 win over the Minutemen.

Boston University @ Massachusetts Lowell - Game 2:
Lowell's Tyler Wall stonewalls the Terriers with a 22-save shutout in game 2 to extend the series to a game 3 tomorrow night.

Wow, had tickets to Maine game but something came up and couldn't make it, must have been great to see. No doubt a packed energized house.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Wow, had tickets to Maine game but something came up and couldn't make it, must have been great to see. No doubt a packed energized house.

Only ones who got to see it were a bunch of viruses. :D
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Somehow this made me smile even in a make believe pretend world. So now I have to ask, what is this simulation based on? Is it merely hard statistics?Are there points for grit? A bonus for getting to hard ice? Truculence? How the heck does it make the prediction?? Is there operator nuance?

The CHW simulator uses KRACH as a starting point, and then factors in the teams' respective strengths and weaknesses (looking at various stats from each team) and generates a series of 100 plays (i.e. Faceoff won - Team X; Shot Attempt - Team X (wide, on goal - save, on goal - goal); Penalty - Team X (minor (slashing), major (checking from behind))). Whoever is winning at the end of those 100 plays is declared the winner. If it ends tied, then the simulation is run again, and whoever scores the first goal wins (in OT of course). I use those 100 plays to craft a narrative. Otherwise it would look something like this:

Play 1: Faceoff
Result - Rensselaer Possession
Faceoff Win - Linden

Play 2: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Rensselaer (1)
Result - Save - Gibson (1)
Shooter - Burgess

Play 3: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Rensselaer (2)
Result - Save - Gibson (2)
Shooter - Babichuk

Play 4: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Harvard (1)
Result - Save - Savory (1)
Shooter - Rathbone

Play 5: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Rensselaer (3)
Result - Goal Rensselaer - Gornall
Result - Assist - Polino
Result - Assist - Klee

Play 6: Faceoff
Result - Harvard Possession
Faceoff Win - Drury

Play 7: Shot Attempt
Result - Wide - Rensselaer (1)
Shooter - Kjellberg

So, I use a bit of creativity to craft a narrative. For example, for Play 7, I could go "and moments after RPI took a 1-0 lead, the Engineers nearly added another on Kjellberg's blast from the top of the far circle, which beat Gibson's glove, but rang off the crossbar." Or, I could simply ignore it and move on to the next play.

Dammit. I was afraid of this going into the weekend. Northeastern May very well be the best 7th seed in Hockey East history. Who was in net for UMass?

Probably Lindberg since Murray played game 1. I bet Tyler Madden returns tomorrow if he didn't return tonight.

Correct. The simulator had Lindberg starting for Massachusetts.

Wow, had tickets to Maine game but something came up and couldn't make it, must have been great to see. No doubt a packed energized house.

Sold out crowd, for certain! :)

Are you saying that there are viruses on Fighting Sioux 23's computer? ;)

As of this morning, my computer was coronavirus free. :)
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Today's Simulated Games:

AHA Tournament
Robert Morris @ Sacred Heart - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)
Air Force @ RIT - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)

ECAC Tournament
Yale @ Quinnipiac - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)

Hockey East Tournament
Northeastern @ Massachusetts - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)
Boston University @ Massachusetts Lowell - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)

WCHA Tournament
Michigan Tech @ Minnesota State - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)
Bowling Green @ Bemidji State - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)

NCHC Tournament
St. Cloud State @ Western Michigan - Game 3 (Series Tied 1-1)
Nebraska Omaha @ Denver - Game 3 (Series Tied 1-1)

B1G Tournament:
Michigan @ Ohio State
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

The CHW simulator uses KRACH as a starting point, and then factors in the teams' respective strengths and weaknesses (looking at various stats from each team) and generates a series of 100 plays (i.e. Faceoff won - Team X; Shot Attempt - Team X (wide, on goal - save, on goal - goal); Penalty - Team X (minor (slashing), major (checking from behind))). Whoever is winning at the end of those 100 plays is declared the winner. If it ends tied, then the simulation is run again, and whoever scores the first goal wins (in OT of course). I use those 100 plays to craft a narrative. Otherwise it would look something like this:

Play 1: Faceoff
Result - Rensselaer Possession
Faceoff Win - Linden

Play 2: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Rensselaer (1)
Result - Save - Gibson (1)
Shooter - Burgess

Play 3: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Rensselaer (2)
Result - Save - Gibson (2)
Shooter - Babichuk

Play 4: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Harvard (1)
Result - Save - Savory (1)
Shooter - Rathbone

Play 5: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Rensselaer (3)
Result - Goal Rensselaer - Gornall
Result - Assist - Polino
Result - Assist - Klee

Play 6: Faceoff
Result - Harvard Possession
Faceoff Win - Drury

Play 7: Shot Attempt
Result - Wide - Rensselaer (1)
Shooter - Kjellberg

So, I use a bit of creativity to craft a narrative. For example, for Play 7, I could go "and moments after RPI took a 1-0 lead, the Engineers nearly added another on Kjellberg's blast from the top of the far circle, which beat Gibson's glove, but rang off the crossbar." Or, I could simply ignore it and move on to the next play.





Correct. The simulator had Lindberg starting for Massachusetts.



Sold out crowd, for certain! :)



As of this morning, my computer was coronavirus free. :)

So if you use KRACH as the starting point I guess you don't use autobids into the regionals? Autobids being used in conjunction with Pairwise to determine regionals seeding. Or do you somehow then convert the KRACH conference championships back into Pairwise to get the proper seeding?
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Thanks for the great explanation. Now if MTU could beat the purple cow, that’d be great.....let me know where to send the Monopoly money 😁
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Here’s hoping Murray plays tonight for UMass.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Thanks for the great explanation. Now if MTU could beat the purple cow, that’d be great.....let me know where to send the Monopoly money 😁
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Thanks for the great explanation. Now if MTU could beat the purple cow, that’d be great.....let me know where to send the Monopoly money ��

I have an awful lot of different Monopoly sets. I will send more than Scrum Bucket.

Go Mavs!
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

And scores from out east are starting to come in...

AHA Quarterfinals

Robert Morris @ Sacred Heart - Game 3:
The Sacred Heart Pioneers hosted the Robert Morris Colonials in a winner-take-all Game 3 of their Atlantic Hockey Quarterfinal series. The Pioneers' Josh Benson played exceptional in the first period, stopping all 11 shots he faced. Meanwhile, the Colonials Justin Kapelmaster was equally up to the task, thwarting each of the 8 shots on goal mustered by SHU in the opening frame. Both goaltenders continued their strong play into the second period, but Sacred Heart broke the stalemate late in the middle stanza on a powerplay goal by Matt Tugnutt. The Pioneers doubled their advantage just before the second intermission when Mike Lee bombed a slapshot past Kapelmaster's blocker to give SHU a 2-0 advantage after 40 minutes. Robert Morris pulled back within one just over four minutes into the third period on Nick Jenny's wrister from the point. Robert Morris had a golden opportunity to level the score midway through the final period after Sacred Heart's Alex Bates was called for roughing. Unfortunately for RMU, Benson stopped each of their three chances on the powerplay. As the clock ticked to zero, Sacred Heart fended off a late Colonial-charge, and when the final horn sounded, it was Sacred Heart winning the game and the series 2-1.

Air Force @ RIT - Game 3:
While it appeared that the Falcons and the Tigers were set to engage in a classic do-or-die battle, it would not be. The RIT Tigers dominated from the opening faceoff, scoring three first period goals, by Jake Hamacher, Caleb Moretz, and Dan Willett. At the other end of the ice, RIT netminder Logan Drackett saw only 6 shots on net, stopping them all, giving RIT a 3-0 cushion after one. Drackett stymied Air Force in the second period as well, stopping all 8 shots on goal, while Shawn Cameron tallied the fourth goal of the night for the Tigers. Air Force had a chance to get back in the game early in the third period following a bench minor for too many men, but instead of a Falcons goal, it would be Alden Dupuis scoring shorthanded to give the Tigers a commanding 5-0 advantage. That is how the game would end, with RIT punching its ticket to the Atlantic Hockey Semifinals.

ECAC Quarterfinals

Yale @ Quinnipiac - Game 3:
Game 3 of the Battle for Connecticut saw the Yale Bulldogs and the Quinnipiac Bobcats skate to an entertaining match with a spot in Lake Placid on the line. The Bobcats struck first midway through the opening stanza on Wyatt Bongiovanni's wrister from the slot the beat Yale goalie Corbin Kaczperski stick-side. Yale responded, and with just over a minute left in the first period knotted the game on Curtis Hall's one-timer from the near circle. Hall gave the Bulldogs the lead early in the second period on another beautiful one-timer from the bottom of the far circle that just beat Bobcat goaltender Keith Petruzzelli's outstretched glove. However, the Bobcats would respond, and midway through the game William Fallstrom slammed home a rebound to knot the score at 2-2. The game remained tied until just six minutes left in the third, when Nick Jermain grabbed a loose puck out of the corner and fed Karlis Cuskte for a howitzer from the point that didn't give Kaczperski a chance. The goal gave Quinnipiac a 3-2 lead heading into the final minutes of regulation. The Bulldogs ferociously fought to level the score, but Petruzzelli held off their charge, and when the horn sounded to end the game, Quinnipiac edged out Yale 3-2 to advance to the ECAC Semifinals.

Hockey East Quarterfinals

Northeastern @ Massachusetts - Game 3:
This Battle in the Bay State (commonwealth?) held not only bragging rights, but a spot in the Hockey East Semifinals at the Garden for the winner. Massachusetts started off strong, taking a 2-0 lead midway through the first period on goals by John Leonard and Bobby Trivigno. Northeastern would come back strong however, getting a late goal in the first by Tyler Madden and an early second period powerplay goal by Grant Jozefek to tie the game at 2-2. The netminders took over at that point, as Northeastern's Craig Pantano and Massachusetts' Matt Murray traded save-after-save to keep the game tied at 2 heading into the third. The final frame was one to remember for the home crowd, as John Leonard continued his tremendous season with his second goal of the game early in the period to give the Minutemen a 3-2 advantage. UMASS added to their lead minutes later on Matthew Kessel's blast from the near boards that beat a screened Pantano and gave Massachusetts a 4-2 lead. Murray continued his strong play from the second, and stopped each of Northeastern's 12 shots on goal in the last twenty, and the Minutemen held on for a 4-2 victory and a 2-1 series win.

Boston University @ Massachusetts Lowell - Game 3:
Another all-Massachusetts showdown in Hockey East this evening in the pivotal game 3 of the Terriers' and Riverhawks' Hockey East Quarterfinal series. Lowell's Matt Brown put the Riverhawks ahead early on a wraparound goal that snuck through BU's Senior netminder Sam Tucker's five-hole. UML continued its strong start notching two more goals in the first period, by Chase Blakmun and Andre Lee, to take a 3-0 advantage. However, the game was not over. BU capitalized on an early powerplay opportunity in the second period when Patrick Harper's wrister found the back of the net. Harper added his second goal of the night midway through the game to pull the Terriers within a goal at 3-2. The key point in the game occurred just before the end of the second period. Harper had a partial breakaway and his wrister beat Tyler Wall, but rang off the goal post. The Riverhawks then gained possession, and with just over ten seconds left in the period, Colin O'Neill launched a wrister from the bottom of the near circle that trickled over Tucker's shoulder and into the net to give Lowell a 4-2 lead. Lowell seized on that momentum shift and came out flying to start the third, and on the period's first shot, Brown lit the lamp with his second goal of the game to give UML a 5-2 advantage. BU continued to fight on, and a late goal by Patrick Curry pulled the Terriers within two with just over two minutes to play. BU notched another tally with just over thirty seconds to play when David Farrance's wrister from the blueline weaved its way through bodies to find the net and the Lowell crowd held their breaths. Fortunately for the Riverhawks, BU was unable to muster another opportunity to tie the game, and when the final horn buzzed, it was Massachusetts Lowell advancing to the Hockey East Semifinals with a 5-4 win.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

And scores from out east are starting to come in...

ECAC Quarterfinals

Yale @ Quinnipiac - Game 3:
Game 3 of the Battle for Connecticut saw the Yale Bulldogs and the Quinnipiac Bobcats skate to an entertaining match with a spot in Lake Placid on the line. The Bobcats struck first midway through the opening stanza on Wyatt Bongiovanni's wrister from the slot the beat Yale goalie Corbin Kaczperski stick-side. Yale responded, and with just over a minute left in the first period knotted the game on Curtis Hall's one-timer from the near circle. Hall gave the Bulldogs the lead early in the second period on another beautiful one-timer from the bottom of the far circle that just beat Bobcat goaltender Keith Petruzzelli's outstretched glove. However, the Bobcats would respond, and midway through the game William Fallstrom slammed home a rebound to knot the score at 2-2. The game remained tied until just six minutes left in the third, when Nick Jermain grabbed a loose puck out of the corner and fed Karlis Cuskte for a howitzer from the point that didn't give Kaczperski a chance. The goal gave Quinnipiac a 3-2 lead heading into the final minutes of regulation. The Bulldogs ferociously fought to level the score, but Petruzzelli held off their charge, and when the horn sounded to end the game, Quinnipiac edged out Yale 3-2 to advance to the ECAC Semifinals.

Thanks for doing this. This is fun.

Next stop: "Fake" Placid! (credit French Rage for coming up with this clever name)
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

And here are the results from the western games...

WCHA Semifinals

Michigan Tech @ Minnesota State - Game 3:
Minnesota State and Michigan Tech squared off this evening in Mankato in a must-win for both teams in their quest to advance to the WCHA Championship. Both Minnesota State's goaltender Dryden McKay, and Michigan Tech's netminder Matt Jurusik put on a show in the first thirty minutes of action, with McKay keeping all 16 of the Huskies shots from crossing the goal line, and Jurusik stopping all 18 Maverick shots on goal. However, shortly after halftime, Minnesota State's Marc Michaelis found the back of the net to give the Mavericks a 1-0 advantage. Mankato added a second goal just before the second intermission on Jake Jeremko's powerplay tally, which gave Minnesota State a 2-0 lead through forty minutes. The Huskies responded early in the third on Raymond Brice's laser from the top of the slot that cut the Mavericks' lead to one. However, McKay would not allow another goal the rest of the evening, and Dallas Gerads added an insurance goal late to seal the deal, giving Minnesota State a 3-1 victory, and a 2-1 series win.

Bowling Green @ Bemidji State - Game 3:
With both teams' seasons likely on the line the Falcons and the Beavers squared off in Bemidji to decide who would take this WCHA Semifinals series. Once again, the goalkeepers stole the show. Bemidji's Zach Driscoll and Bowling Green's Eric Dop combined to stop all 31 shots on net in the first two periods, leading to a tense final stanza. After forty minutes of scoreless hockey, Bemidji struck first six minutes into the third period, when Charlie Combs corralled a rebound and lifted a backhander over Dop's leg to put the Beavers ahead 1-0. The two sides exchanged powerplay opportunities in the middle of the period, to no avail, but with just over five-and-a-half minutes to play, Bowling Green's T.J. Lloyd ripped a slapshot from the point that beat a screened Driscoll to tie the game at 1-1. It appeared the game was headed for overtime, but with just under a minute to play, Bemidji's Elias Rosen found a streaking Adam Brady with a beautiful feed through the neutral zone. Brady split the Falcons' defenders and lifted a wrister over Dop's glove and into the back of the net to give Bemidji State a 2-1 lead. That would be all Driscoll would need, and the Beavers advanced to the WCHA Championship.

NCHC Quarterfinals

St. Cloud State @ Western Michigan - Game 3:
In a series notable for piling up the goals, the Huskies and the Broncos did not disappoint this evening. SCSU jumped out to a 1-0 advantage early on Easton Brodzinski's powerplay goal. Western responded shortly after when Wade Allison lit the lamp to tie the game at 1, and after twenty minutes, the sides remained all square. The Broncos took the initiative in the second period, scoring back-to-back goals from DiPietro and Drew Worrad to take a 3-1 lead. The Huskies would respond late in the second to pull back within a goal, this time thanks to another powerplay tally rom Brodzinski. SCSU then knotted the action at 3-3 early in the third when Nick Perbix's wrister from the blueline deflected off a Western defender and trickled past Brandon Bussi. Western then regained the lead midway through the period on Jason Polin's wrister, which put the Broncos up 4-3. The Huskies rallied ferociously, and with just over three minutes to play, SCSU's Micah Miller slammed home a rebound to tie the game at 4 apiece. The score remained 4-4 after sixty minutes, requiring overtime. The Broncos would not need long in the extra frame to send the Lawson Lunatics home happy, as Wade Allison scored his second tally on a wrister from just below the far circle which snuck past David Hrenak to give Western a 5-4 win, and a 2-1 series win to advance to the NCHC Frozen Faceoff.

Nebraska Omaha @ Denver - Game 3:
The Pioneers and Mavericks met in the Mile High City to decide who would advance to the NCHC Frozen Faceoff next weekend. DU, aided by three first-period powerplays, stormed Omaha in the first twenty minutes, launching 14 shots on Isaiah Saville, but the Freshman goaltender was up to the task, keeping the Pioneers off the scoreboard. The game remained scoreless until midway through the second, when Denver's Ian Mitchell's stick broke in the neutral zone, leading to a breakaway for Taylor Ward, who roofed a backhand over Magnus Chrona's glove to give Omaha a 1-0 lead. However, that would be the end of the highlights for the Mavericks on this weekend, as Denver dominated the last half of the game. DU tied the score with just over six minutes to play in the second period on Tyler Ward's wrister, and Mitchell enacted some revenge for the earlier miscue by ripping a one-timer past Saville to give the Pioneers a 2-1 lead heading into the third. DU scored two more goals in the third period, by Brett Stapley and Hank Crone respectively, and the Pioneers advanced to St. Paul next weekend with a 4-1 victory.

B1G Semifinal:

Michigan @ Ohio State:
This classic Big Ten rivalry renewed this evening, as the Wolverines and Buckeyes met for the right to advance to the B1G Championship next weekend. Ohio State's Quinn Preston struck first midway through the opening frame to give the Buckeyes a 1-0 lead. That lead held until minutes into the second period when Michigan's Jack Becker lit the lamp on a wrister from the slot to tie the score at 1-1. UM took a 2-1 lead minutes later on Nick Blankenburg's slapper that blew past OSU's Tommy Nappier. Nappier got his revenge moments later when he robbed Jake Slaker's breakaway attempt, which gave the Buckeyes a shot of momentum at just the right time. Seconds before the second intermission, the Buckeyes knotted the score at 2-2 on Matt Miller's powerplay goal. OSU took a short-lived 3-2 lead early in the third on Ronnie Hein's one-timer from the near circle; however, the Wolverines tied things up again on the next shift when Jacob Hayhurst slammed home a rebound. Both sides traded opportunities throughout the rest of the third, but after sixty minutes of play, the game remained tied at 3. In overtime, Michigan drew a controversial slashing call, but the Wolverines were unable to capitalize with the man advantage. As the first overtime period drew to an end, it looked like another twenty minutes might be necessary. However, with just seconds remaining in the extra frame, Cam York launched a slap shot from the point that missed the net on the far side, but ricocheted out on the other side to a wide open Luke Morgan who quickly snapped a wrister into a gaping net to give Michigan a 4-3 win, and a birth in the B1G Championship game.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

The bubble shrinks...

1 North Dakota
2 Mankato
3 Cornell
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota-Duluth
6 Denver
7 Penn State
8 Clarkson
9 Massachusetts
10 Ohio State
11 Michigan
12 Maine
13 Mass.-Lowell
14 Arizona State
15 Bemidji State
===
AQ AIC
===
16 Western Michigan
17 Quinnipiac
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

The bubble shrinks...

1 North Dakota
2 Mankato
3 Cornell
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota-Duluth
6 Denver
7 Penn State
8 Clarkson
9 Massachusetts
10 Ohio State
11 Michigan
12 Maine
13 Mass.-Lowell
14 Arizona State
15 Bemidji State
===
AQ AIC
===
16 Western Michigan
17 Quinnipiac
really? BSU wins and they don't move?
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Great stuff.
 
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