2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

BU wins:
1 BC (.6975)
2 UM (.6718)
3 UW (.6244)
4 QU (.6121)
5 HU (.5816)
6 BU (.5791)
7 MD (.5773)
8 CU (.5632)

Told ya #humblebrag

 

[ARM]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

This is the current PWR:

Rank Team
1 Boston College
2 Minnesota
3 Wisconsin
4 Quinnipiac
5 Harvard
6 Minnesota-Duluth
7 Boston University
8 Clarkson

It's looking more and more like the No. 8 spot won't be any good, because no CHA team will be in the top 8. The current bracket would look rather hideous: two ECAC teams meeting in the first round and on the same side of the bracket as BC and likely BU; three WCHA teams on the other side with either the CHA winner or BU. If they try to break up the intraconference games in the East, that means the undefeated team gets the fifth-best team. Yuck.

 

[wwhyte]

This is the current PWR:

Rank Team
1 Boston College
2 Minnesota
3 Wisconsin
4 Quinnipiac
5 Harvard
6 Minnesota-Duluth
7 Boston University
8 Clarkson

It's looking more and more like the No. 8 spot won't be any good, because no CHA team will be in the top 8. The current bracket would look rather hideous: two ECAC teams meeting in the first round and on the same side of the bracket as BC and likely BU; three WCHA teams on the other side with either the CHA winner or BU. If they try to break up the intraconference games in the East, that means the undefeated team gets the fifth-best team. Yuck.

Avoiding intraconference games is not one of the criteria any more, if I understand correctly. Flights, then bracket integrity. So the current bracket would have Minny versus the CHA champ and BC v BU. Which I agree would be terrible.

 

[CrankIt]

Avoiding intraconference games is not one of the criteria any more, if I understand correctly. Flights, then bracket integrity.

I believe you are correct. Flights/travel definitely are priority number one for the selection committee. Not just for D1 hockey but for all sports in all divisions. But can you clarify what you mean when you say bracket integrity?

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

It means keeping 1v8, 2v7 etc. as much as possible

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Speaking of rankings, I have a surprise for y'all today...

 

[ARM]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

I believe you are correct. Flights/travel definitely are priority number one for the selection committee. Not just for D1 hockey but for all sports in all divisions.

That is not true. D-I men's hockey has a top priority of avoiding conference pairings in the first round unless the representation from one or more conferences is so great that there is no way to do so and still retain some semblance of bracket integrity. For D-I men's basketball, you never see teams from the same league matched in the first round, and rather than limiting travel, the emphasis is on creating regional brackets that will be attended well. Yes, I realize that there are huge differences in that tourney and NC women's hockey, in size, interest, and budget.

 

[CrankIt]

That is not true. D-I men's hockey has a top priority of avoiding conference pairings in the first round unless the representation from one or more conferences is so great that there is no way to do so and still retain some semblance of bracket integrity. For D-I men's basketball, you never see teams from the same league matched in the first round, and rather than limiting travel, the emphasis is on creating regional brackets that will be attended well. Yes, I realize that there are huge differences in that tourney and NC women's hockey, in size, interest, and budget.

Let me clarify, basketball, volleyball, softball, soccer, etc. are all broken down into regions. Now if you look at the region in which UMD plays for their D2 sports, it's quite a large area spanning Minnesota, The Dakotas, Iowa, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Missouri, and Arkansas. Often when they set up the first round of games in the Regionals, the opponents are geographically closer than Minnesota to Oklahoma. They tend to make all the More northern teams play each other first to cut down on travel. Even if that means it's not necessarily following bracket integrity.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Let me clarify, basketball, volleyball, softball, soccer, etc. are all broken down into regions. Now if you look at the region in which UMD plays for their D2 sports, it's quite a large area spanning Minnesota, The Dakotas, Iowa, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Missouri, and Arkansas. Often when they set up the first round of games in the Regionals, the opponents are geographically closer than Minnesota to Oklahoma. They tend to make all the More northern teams play each other first to cut down on travel. Even if that means it's not necessarily following bracket integrity.

I agree that it is true in D-II, D-III, and most D-I tournaments. It is not the case for every D-I tournament, and that was the only piece I was disputing. Duke or North Carolina may be placed as the top seed in the West regional in NCAA men's basketball.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Here is your Pairwise through all of tonight's games. Harvard up to home ice.

Rank Team Comparisons Won RPI
1 Boston College 15 0.7035
2 Minnesota 14 0.6623
3 Wisconsin 13 0.6223
4 Harvard 12 0.6008
5 Quinnipiac 11 0.5934
6 Boston University 10 0.5691
7 Minnesota-Duluth 9 0.5685
8 St. Lawrence 8 0.5556
9 Clarkson 7 0.5518
10 North Dakota 6 0.5481
11 Cornell 5 0.5503
12 Ohio State 4 0.5445
13 Mercyhurst 3 0.5407
14 Bemidji State 2 0.5236
15 Dartmouth 1 0.5137
16 Princeton 0 0.5065

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Updated Pairwise with Minny's loss and Wisco's tie:

Rank Team Comparisons Won RPI
1 Boston College 16 0.7007
2 Minnesota 15 0.6522
3 Wisconsin 14 0.6197
4 Harvard 13 0.5977
5 Quinnipiac 12 0.5894
6 Minnesota-Duluth 11 0.5678
7 Boston University 10 0.5641
8 Cornell 8 0.5600
9 Clarkson 8 0.5580
10 North Dakota 8 0.5549
11 St. Lawrence 6 0.5483
12 Ohio State 5 0.5424
13 Mercyhurst 3 0.5349
14 Bemidji State 3 0.5277
15 Princeton 3 0.5193
16 Penn State 1 0.5048
17 Dartmouth 0 0.5123

 

[brookyone]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Updated Pairwise with Minny's loss and Wisco's tie:

Rank Team Comparisons Won RPI
1 Boston College 16 0.7007
2 Minnesota 15 0.6522
3 Wisconsin 14 0.6197
4 Harvard 13 0.5977
5 Quinnipiac 12 0.5894
6 Minnesota-Duluth 11 0.5678
7 Boston University 10 0.5641
8 Cornell 8 0.5600
9 Clarkson 8 0.5580
10 North Dakota 8 0.5549
11 St. Lawrence 6 0.5483
12 Ohio State 5 0.5424
13 Mercyhurst 3 0.5349
14 Bemidji State 3 0.5277
15 Princeton 3 0.5193
16 Penn State 1 0.5048
17 Dartmouth 0 0.5123

Regular season winding down. The CHA auto-bid has to be making a few teams uncomfortable and potentially landing them in must win conference tournament predicament.

I wouldn't think it possible for NoDak to climb sufficiently per avoiding that same predicament. Any scenario enthusiasts care to expand on any possibilities as they see 'em?

 

[ARM]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Any scenario enthusiasts care to expand on any possibilities as they see 'em?

Here are the current PairWise after Sat/Sun:

Women’s Division I PairWise Rankings
Switch to Pairwise Rankings Comparison Grid »Click on a column header to sort by that column.
Rank	Team	PWR	W-L-T	Win %	Win % Rank	RPI	RPI Rank
1	Boston College	15	27-0-1	.9821	1	.6969*	1
2	Minnesota	14	25-2-4	.8710	2	.6560*	2
3	Wisconsin	13	22-4-4	.8000	3	.6235*	3
4	Harvard	12	18-4-2	.7917	4	.5972*	4
5	Quinnipiac	11	22-5-3	.7833	5	.5878*	5
6	Boston University	10	18-7-2	.7037	7	.5659	6
7	Minnesota-Duluth	9	17-8-5	.6500	9	.5630	7
8	Clarkson	8	19-8-3	.6833	8	.5592	8
9	North Dakota	7	16-11-3	.5833	12t	.5517	10
10	Cornell	6	14-8-3	.6200	11	.5531	9
11	St. Lawrence	5	17-9-4	.6333	10	.5494	11
12	Ohio State	4	16-11-3	.5833	12t	.5437	12
13	Mercyhurst	3	20-7-3	.7167	6	.5372	13
14	Bemidji State	2	16-13-1	.5500	17	.5305	14
15	Princeton	1	13-10-2	.5600	16	.5269	15
16	Dartmouth	0	11-11-2	.5000	18	.5049	16

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-women/#ixzz3RHTz1jLJ

 

[robertearle]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

I wouldn't think it possible for NoDak to climb sufficiently per avoiding that same predicament. Any scenario enthusiasts care to expand on any possibilities as they see 'em?

The ray of hope for Cornell/Clarkson/North Dakota is that BU has two (and maybe three) games against BC yet to come, while UMD has two (and maybe three) games against Minnesota coming. Win one and BU/UMD can solidify their position, but lose all three and they're looking over the shoulders...

 

[wwhyte]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Question -- if the Beanpot final goes to a shootout, will it count as a tie for Pairwise purposes even though one team goes home with the trophy and one team doesn't?

 

[ARM]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Question -- if the Beanpot final goes to a shootout, will it count as a tie for Pairwise purposes even though one team goes home with the trophy and one team doesn't?

All games decided by a shootout are considered ties by the NCAA. My understanding is that the final will not use a shootout.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Bit of a shakeup last night.

1 BC
2 UM
3 UW
4 HU
5 QU
6 BU
7 CU
8 CHA/MU

If the CHA champion is Syracuse you can keep bracket integrity perfectly and minimize flights. If it's not, and it's, say, Mercyhurst:

1 BC vs. 7 CU
2 UM vs. 8 MU
3 UW vs. 6 BU
4 HU vs. 5 QU

That bottom 4 is far from settled.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

If the CHA champion is Syracuse ...

Through half of the game in Syracuse last night, it looked like the probability of that happening was fairly decent. Over the final 30 minutes + OT, maybe not.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Through half of the game in Syracuse last night, it looked like the probability of that happening was fairly decent. Over the final 30 minutes + OT, maybe not.

Yeah I saw that box score, yikes... talk about a collapse.

 

[ne7minder]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Bit of a shakeup last night.

1 BC
2 UM
3 UW
4 HU
5 QU
6 BU
7 CU
8 CHA/MU
. . .
That bottom 4 is far from settled.

Agreed it is way too soon yet to call the 8 but I'd be happy to see Clarkson in our house, something about an old wound But either way I am really looking forward to playing BC some Sunday in March.