2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

[OnMAA]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

You guys do know that the NCAA doesn't set up the Frozen Four semis right? It's entirely based on PWR, being 1v4 2v3.

Had BC won Hockey East we would be playing Wisconsin on Friday.

And Therein lies the irony of defeat. Look how BU helped the Eagles not once, not twice, but potentially three times:
1 - BU beats BC for the HE title, dropping BC to number two, a home date with Clarkson, and an eastern based bracket to the final.
2 - BU heads west to lose to Wisco, giving Minny a harder road to the Final
3 - Wisco and Minny wear each other down, and the winner will have little left to give against an eager eagle team in the final.

Maybe you should thank those Terriers.!!!

 

[Watson Rink]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Wisco and Minny wear each other down, and the winner will have little left to give against an eager eagle team in the final.

Better keep a close eye on the players who show up wearing Harvard jerseys...just as Harvard hired an impersonator band at Wisconsin last year, this year they might, as part of the vast Right-Coast Conspiracy, hire the Union team to show up and give BC an easier path to the title game! (LOL)

 

[ARM]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

And Therein lies the irony of defeat. Look how BU helped the Eagles not once, not twice, but potentially three times:
1 - BU beats BC for the HE title, dropping BC to number two, a home date with Clarkson, and an eastern based bracket to the final.
2 - BU heads west to lose to Wisco, giving Minny a harder road to the Final
3 - Wisco and Minny wear each other down, and the winner will have little left to give against an eager eagle team in the final.

Maybe you should thank those Terriers.!!!

The real problem here is Wisconsin. Two years in a row, Bucky has swooned and fallen from third down to fourth by losing to teams it shouldn't late in the year. Apparently UW likes being on Minnesota's side of the bracket. So be it.

As for the NCAA being responsible for the bracket or not, who picked the system? The NCAA. So yes, if we don't like the way the bracket gets populated year after year, I'm going to feel free to blame the coaches and administrators who are supposed to go to annual meetings and represent the sport but are too dim to come up with an improved system. I'll do this no matter how many times you shrug and say, "It's just fate; nobody is at fault." I realize that nobody from the East is going to want to improve the process, because it is currently valuing your teams more highly than alternative systems would. Once the situation changes, and the PWR clearly hurts the East for a few years, then I anticipate change will be forthcoming.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

ARM, whether KRACH or PWR picks the top 8, it will always be 1v4 and 2v3 in the semifinals lol

 

[ARM]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

ARM, whether KRACH or PWR picks the top 8, it will always be 1v4 and 2v3 in the semifinals lol

Sure, but don't talk to me about "bracket integrity" when the method used to populate the bracket is lacking integrity. Given 1 vs 2 and 3 vs 4 were both one-game swings, it wouldn't have taken much interpretation to arrive at a better bracket. Supposedly, the current system doesn't allow that -- except for the years when it does. If we were using KRACH, you'd be playing Wisconsin on Friday.

 

[Watson Rink]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

ARM, whether KRACH or PWR picks the top 8, it will always be 1v4 and 2v3 in the semifinals lol

Yes, using KRACH or Rutter would have resulted in a Frozen Four semi-final bracket with reversed pairings and more piquancy:

KRACH: Division I and II Women

1 Minnesota 1452. .9171 2 32-3-4 0.8718 6.800 2 231.4
2 Boston College 1426. .9158 1 34-2-2 0.9211 11.667 15 140.6
3 Wisconsin 896.7 .8756 4 29-6-4 0.7949 3.875 1 242.0
4 Harvard 732.6 .8540 3 26-5-3 0.8088 4.231 7 183.1


Final Rutter Rankings for 2014-15

Rank Seed Team Rating Last Week P(Top 8)
1 1 Minnesota 1.86 1 100.0
2 2 Boston College 1.65 2 99.8
3 4 Wisconsin 1.51 3 99.8
4 3 Harvard 1.25 4 94.6

 

[ne7minder]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

The real problem here is Wisconsin. Two years in a row, Bucky has swooned and fallen from third down to fourth by losing to teams it shouldn't late in the year. Apparently UW likes being on Minnesota's side of the bracket. So be it.

As for the NCAA being responsible for the bracket or not, who picked the system? The NCAA. So yes, if we don't like the way the bracket gets populated year after year, I'm going to feel free to blame the coaches and administrators who are supposed to go to annual meetings and represent the sport but are too dim to come up with an improved system. I'll do this no matter how many times you shrug and say, "It's just fate; nobody is at fault." I realize that nobody from the East is going to want to improve the process, because it is currently valuing your teams more highly than alternative systems would. Once the situation changes, and the PWR clearly hurts the East for a few years, then I anticipate change will be forthcoming.

We can solve all of this by simply changing the playoffs. The top 16 are seeded into 4 groups of 4 that play round-robin, the top 2 teams in each group advance to the second round of round-robin play then the top 2 teams in each group play with the team with the best record playing the team with the worst of the four and 2 playing 3, winners play for the the championship and losers play for 3rd. The championship games could be held on the 4th of July weekend which would be perfect!

Except for the team seeded 17th would would be sure to complain about getting shafted because of something or other.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Given 1 vs 2 and 3 vs 4 were both one-game swings, it wouldn't have taken much interpretation to arrive at a better bracket. Supposedly, the current system doesn't allow that -- except for the years when it does. If we were using KRACH, you'd be playing Wisconsin on Friday.

You're creating an argument where there isn't one and arguing a whole bunch of different things at the same time.

PWR is probably a pretty poor way to select the tournament. I don't think many people would disagree with you.

Is KRACH a better way? Probably. Again, I think most people are on your side here.

However you seem to be arguing that KRACH will put western teams on opposite sides of the bracket more than PWR will. This is kind of a silly argument. It would have happened this year, yeah, but that's just how things fell.

Sure, but don't talk to me about "bracket integrity" when the method used to populate the bracket is lacking integrity.

I think you're just making pithy commentary about how you don't like how the tournament field is selected, but "bracket integrity" is a thing that has a specific definition that isn't really up for debate -- matching up the strongest against the weakest according to the criteria given to it. Again you're talking about two different problems, both of which people agree with you about.

--"Bracket integrity" as we talk about it now has to do with the committee shifting teams to stay east or west in the quarterfinals to minimize flights.
--The method of populating the bracket but PWR stinks, but has nothing to do with minimizing flights.

This season is a PERFECT illustration of what I mean. In your opinion, the teams selected for the tournament this year were selected poorly and could have been done better using KRACH.

The tournament as selected by PWR this year had perfect bracket integrity in that it was 1v8 2v7 3v6 4v5 -- according to the selection criteria given to them, bracket integrity was maintained just by how the teams were placed according to PWR.

If we went by KRACH, bracket integrity would have been absolutely massacred... You would have had:

1 UM
2 BC
3 UW
4 HU
5 ND
6 BU
7 QU
8 RIT

The tournament you would have would be:

5 ND @ 1 UM eek
8 RIT @ 2 BC
7 QU @ 3 UW
6 BU @ 4 HU

So to conclude here, you don't like PWR, but you also don't like the rule minimizing flights. Those are two problems things that have nothing to do with each other.

And lastly,

Supposedly, the current system doesn't allow that -- except for the years when it does.

I don't know what this means. The committee takes the top 4 and seeds them. There's never, ever, ever been any adjustment to the top 4 seeds as seeded by the PWR to make for a "better" semifinal.

They adjust the bottom four to minimize flights, yes, but there is never any changes done to the seeding of the top four, regardless of who it helps.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

You're creating an argument where there isn't one and arguing a whole bunch of different things at the same time.

People (not me in this case) said they didn't like the bracket. TTT said, you can't blame the NCAA. I say, yes, it's the NCAA's system. I blame the NCAA. I'm not really sure where you stand. Not wanting to argue; stating my position.

However you seem to be arguing that KRACH will put western teams on opposite sides of the bracket more than PWR will.

It would have last year and it would have this year, but that doesn't mean it would as a general rule. I know it wouldn't have given an undefeated UM a first-round match with UND two years ago, that's for sure. IIRC, UND would have hosted. Anyway, I never made the statement that you claim I am arguing, so knock yourself out shooting down "my" argument that I didn't make.

I haven't said anything about flights here, so I'm not going there now. Not really wanting to argue, just saying that I don't like it, and if the NCAA isn't responsible for the system, then who is?

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

So to conclude here, you don't like PWR, but you also don't like the rule minimizing flights. Those are two problems things that have nothing to do with each other.

To clarify, you can't fix the problem just by fixing one of these things. Both need to be fixed, otherwise you will either have 1) a tournament field of "deserving" participants that is given a bullcrap first round matchup to reduce flights, or 2) a poorly selected tournament field that keeps perfect bracket integrity.

And -- again -- I think we all agree here.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

To clarify, you can't fix the problem just by fixing one of these things.

I agree. But fixing the flights issue requires money that fixing the other problem does not. I was already accused of bringing up too many things, so I don't want to be "blamed" for other issues as well.

And bottom line, I get that this is how it's going to be at this point. The whole thing to me is like being served a wonderful piece of steak that looks just perfect, but before I can take a bite, somebody dumps steak sauce all over it. Yeah, I can still eat it, but it could have been so much better -- IMO. And I realize that it is only my opinion.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

TTT said, you can't blame the NCAA. I say, yes, it's the NCAA's system. I blame the NCAA.

No I totally agree, but every tournament in men's *and* women's hockey has always set up its bracket so that if all the top seeds win, 1 will play 4 and 2 will play 3. There isn't a problem with this.

I think we're both arguing two sides of the same coin here -- we have the same opinion on just about all this except that I think it is a fallacy to say that KRACH will have more semifinals over the long run that are set up east vs. west than PWR would.

Since the tournament was selected by PWR, not region (2003), these are the years that exactly two WCHA teams made the Frozen Four:

2015: Was east/east vs. west/west
2014: Was east/east vs. west/west
2012: Was east/west vs. east/west
2010: Was east/east vs. west/west
2008: Was east/west vs. east/west
2007: Was east/west vs. east/west
2006: Was east/west vs. east/west
2003: Was east/west vs. east/west

So methinks you have a bit of recency bias going on... PWR is no more likely to set up a regional semifinal than KRACH is.

 

[Eeyore]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

They could use the original men's system of having a 1 & 2 seed for both east and west and then have a 1/2 matchup in each semi, assuming that the seeds win their quarterfinal. Since there's an upset most years it's hardly an infallible system for producing interregional semis, but it's a start.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

-- we have the same opinion on just about all this except that I think it is a fallacy to say that KRACH will have more semifinals over the long run that are set up east vs. west than PWR would.

Exactly. The statement I never made, but you somehow made on my behalf.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Exactly. The statement I never made, but you somehow made on my behalf.

This post...

Sure, but don't talk to me about "bracket integrity" when the method used to populate the bracket is lacking integrity. Given 1 vs 2 and 3 vs 4 were both one-game swings, it wouldn't have taken much interpretation to arrive at a better bracket. Supposedly, the current system doesn't allow that -- except for the years when it does. If we were using KRACH, you'd be playing Wisconsin on Friday.

...seemed to imply it.

Anyway yay I'm glad we're all on the same page lol

 

[Timothy A]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

We can solve all of this by simply changing the playoffs. The top 16 are seeded into 4 groups of 4 that play round-robin, the top 2 teams in each group advance to the second round of round-robin play then the top 2 teams in each group play with the team with the best record playing the team with the worst of the four and 2 playing 3, winners play for the the championship and losers play for 3rd. The championship games could be held on the 4th of July weekend which would be perfect!

Except for the team seeded 17th would would be sure to complain about getting shafted because of something or other.

I don't generally support increasing the number of teams in the tourney, but I love this idea.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

I am firmly against expanding the tournament field past 8, personally.

 

[D2D]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

I am firmly against expanding the tournament field past 8, personally.

Agreed. The men have 16, about 27% of their total number of teams (59). That same percentage equates to 9 (of 34) teams for the women.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

I don't have all the numbers, but it is somewhat more likely KRACH would yield East West semifinals when the WCHA team is #1 because it's much harder for the 2nd best WCHA team to make the top 3 under the PWR. You have a bias to conference parity in the PWR so it is very common for the top 3 teams to be from different conferences.

I think this recency bias is more of a stable pattern now that Hockey East and ECAC consistently produce a champ with good overall results and WCHA teams have regularly been top seeds, and Mercyhurst is no longer elite.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

And I actually generally agree with the broad NCAA policy to avoid intra conference in Round 1 but not worry so much about round 2. There's generally not so much you can do. The west-west injustice is really only when the teams aren't seeded right, I agree Wisconsin deserved to be 3 this year.