2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Given the lack of common opponents, the limited number of games each of us has seen and the general lack of comparables, how can anyone have more than a vague opinion on rankings?

Do you think Minnesota is better than Northeastern?
Do you think BC is better than St. Cloud?

Easy questions, sure.

Do you think Minnesota is better than BC?

Tougher question, but one that still has an answer. You either think Minnesota would beat BC more often than not or you don't, whatever rationale you use. It's all about your opinion based on what you know and what you value in a team.

When you combine a dozen or so polls of public opinion you end up getting a good idea of how good everyone collectively thinks each team is.

Just because there are gray areas doesn't mean it's a worthless exercise. If it was easy to tell who was better than who we wouldn't be watching the sport.

Not that it isn't a fun topic to argue about...

That, I think, is all anyone sees in any poll, really.

...but I'd love to hear a few of you describe how you come to the conclusions you do. I am not agreeing or disagreeing with anyone just courious how you make your choices.

Same, I try and include some commentary in mine because I like seeing it in others'. Seeing what other people think of teams in their region also helps those of us far away who don't see those games.

EDIT: on the subject of ranking, I noticed PWR asterisks some teams with the note "Team's RPI has been adjusted to remove negative effect from defeating weak opponent." yet some teams (e.g. UND and NU) are not so noted. I assume both have beaten weak teams so what makes the difference.

The question is how weak those teams are relative to how strong the teams are that beat them.

Think of every game as having a "Game RPI." Take the average of all of those "Game RPIs" and it equals a team's total RPI.

If any Game RPI in a win is lower than a team's total RPI, then that means it would unfairly lower that average despite being a win, so it's thrown out.

For example, BC's RPI is .7252. Look at BC's "Game RPI" against Cornell, which is calculated as

[BC's Win% x 0.3] + [Cornell's Win% x .24] + [Cornell's Opponents' Win% x .46]
= [1.000 x 0.3] + [0.600* x 0.24] + [.5765 x 0.46]
= 0.3 + .144 + .2652
= .7092

*you have to remove the BC vs. Cornell games from this otherwise it's being double counted

That .7092 is lower than BC's RPI of .7252 --which means that it's dragging down BC's average. So the wins against Cornell are ignored.

If you look at North Dakota, as was in your example, North Dakota's RPI is .5574. If you look at all of the wins North Dakota has, none of them have a "Game RPI" of under .5574. The "worst" win is against Minnesota State, with a Game RPI of .5699. So while that's a "bad win," removing it would actually hurt North Dakota's RPI. So it's kept in there.

Lots of math, but hope that helps.

 

[PuckRush]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Also, you could say that about like four teams.

I think it's the ECAC that is boggling everyone's minds.

To unravel the puzzle, start with the the ECAC conference rankings: 1) Quinnipiac, 2) Harvard, 3) Dartmouth, 4) SLU, 5) Princeton, 6) Clarkson, 7) RPI, and so on. Now, it's early, so let's try to put them in the "right" order.

1) QU - In the right spot. Their only conference loss was to Yale, but I believe QU has a 2-1 record vs Yale this year.
2) Harvard - In the right spot. They only had one hiccup in first game of year vs Dartmouth (2-1 loss), who may be a very good team (need some more data).
3) Clarkson - Their overall record puts them here, but their conference record of 2-2-2 shows vulnerability. They got blown out by #1 QU and had a head-scratching loss to #7 RPI. Their tie with Harvard and beating the lower ranked teams is what keeps them here, but they are in a precarious position.

SLU, Dartmouth and Princeton have better ECAC records than Clarkson and are nipping at their heels.
Based on the Harvard experience out west this weekend, I'd venture to say that if Bemidji, Minn-Duluth and No Dak were in this conference, they'd likely beat up on Clarkson.

So again, I don't get why Clarkson is getting #5 (USCHO poll) or #6-8 (this poll) kind of respect. Seems like Harvard is the better team, and the WCHA, beyond Minn and Wisc, has at least one, if not all three teams mentioned above that are better.

 

[Eeyore]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Based on the Harvard experience out west this weekend, I'd venture to say that if Bemidji, Minn-Duluth and No Dak were in this conference, they'd likely beat up on Clarkson.

So again, I don't get why Clarkson is getting #5 (USCHO poll) or #6-8 (this poll) kind of respect. Seems like Harvard is the better team, and the WCHA, beyond Minn and Wisc, has at least one, if not all three teams mentioned above that are better.

Bemidji is a straightforward team: they beat the teams that they are better than, and they lose to the teams they aren't better than. The only question is figuring out whether they are better than Clarkson. To date, I think they are, and I have them ranked higher.

Based upon the split with Harvard, I think UMD is about as good as Harvard right now, which means that they may be better than Clarkson. However, I don't discard games from the beginning of the season, and so I don't rank the Bulldogs higher than Clarkson at this point. If each team keeps playing like they have the last several weeks, UMD would eventually pass Clarkson.

North Dakota is the opposite of Bemidji; they can beat teams that are better than they are, but they can also lose to pretty much anyone. They have losses to Syracuse and Ohio State, and a tie with St. Cloud, on their record, none of whom are as good as Clarkson. So I can't say with confidence that they would win a head-to-head matchup. Indeed, their bad losses now significantly outnumber their good wins, and I was close to dropping them from my top ten altogether.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Based on the Harvard experience out west this weekend, I'd venture to say that if Bemidji, Minn-Duluth and No Dak were in this conference, they'd likely beat up on Clarkson.

What about the Syracuse experience?

So again, I don't get why Clarkson is getting #5 (USCHO poll) or #6-8 (this poll) kind of respect. Seems like Harvard is the better team, and the WCHA, beyond Minn and Wisc, has at least one, if not all three teams mentioned above that are better.

I think it has more to do with the fact that so many people (at least in the poster's poll) don't know what to make of 4-9 right now that it's all a jumbled mess and they're all close enough to be a virtual tie mathematically. Also people are still giving some teams some expectation bias based on who returned a lot (i.e. Clarkson) and who graduated a lot (i.e. Harvard and UMD) because it's still the first half. That'll fade.

Also 14-2-2 is a mighty impressive record. People like to look at records, for better or for worse.

 

[FiveHoleFrenzy]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1. Wisconsin - "overwhelming" favorites in the upcoming series with their evil neighbor to the west.
2. BC - They are headed to unprecedented "heights" and will likely match up with powerhouse Wisconsin for the title.
3. Minnesota - Like Bobby Boucher's momma says..."They are the Devil." Stashing players and hindering the growth of women's hockey to name a couple of their evils.
4. Quinnipiac - This spot seems very transient but I guess it's the Bobcats turn at it.
5. Bemidji - They are who they are. What you see is what you get.
6. Harvard - Loss to UMD is a bump in the road but they still seem to have the most potential to make the top 4 by the end of the season.
7. Northeastern - Seems like they have turned into a cupcake like so many others in Hockey East for BC.
8. Clarkson - The talent is there to move up but will they?
9. UND - Unlike Bemidji, they don't seem to be who they are. What you see is not always what you get.
10. UMD - Harvard win puts them here but only by the slimmest margin over others.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

North Dakota ... a tie with St. Cloud, on their record.

Even UND's tie with SCSU was some sort of a miracle (or a steal) that required playing without a goalie for long stretches. In recent years, UND is the master of the swoon.

 

[ne7minder]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

.

Thanks, particularly the explanation about the weak team beats.

As for the rest, I think I can rank WCHA teams because I have seen them all play but after that it is all opinion which I think in my case is not particularly valuable.

 

[PuckRush]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Bemidji is a straightforward team: they beat the teams that they are better than, and they lose to the teams they aren't better than. The only question is figuring out whether they are better than Clarkson. To date, I think they are, and I have them ranked higher.

Based upon the split with Harvard, I think UMD is about as good as Harvard right now, which means that they may be better than Clarkson. However, I don't discard games from the beginning of the season, and so I don't rank the Bulldogs higher than Clarkson at this point. If each team keeps playing like they have the last several weeks, UMD would eventually pass Clarkson.

North Dakota is the opposite of Bemidji; they can beat teams that are better than they are, but they can also lose to pretty much anyone. They have losses to Syracuse and Ohio State, and a tie with St. Cloud, on their record, none of whom are as good as Clarkson. So I can't say with confidence that they would win a head-to-head matchup. Indeed, their bad losses now significantly outnumber their good wins, and I was close to dropping them from my top ten altogether.

Really good insights and a big help in understanding how to think about the clutter in #5-#10. I didn't drill down enough on ND and MD's schedule to see that they had some questionable results, especially ND. I suppose I could agree on MD, Clarkson, ND in that order.

 

[PuckRush]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

What about the Syracuse experience?

Also 14-2-2 is a mighty impressive record. People like to look at records, for better or for worse.

You are correct about ND splitting with Syracuse.
Re Clarkson: I believe that roughly 10 of those 14 wins are against teams with a losing record.

 

[PuckRush]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1. Wisconsin - "overwhelming" favorites in the upcoming series with their evil neighbor to the west.
2. BC - They are headed to unprecedented "heights" and will likely match up with powerhouse Wisconsin for the title.
3. Minnesota - Like Bobby Boucher's momma says..."They are the Devil." Stashing players and hindering the growth of women's hockey to name a couple of their evils.
4. Quinnipiac - This spot seems very transient but I guess it's the Bobcats turn at it.
5. Bemidji - They are who they are. What you see is what you get.
6. Harvard - Loss to UMD is a bump in the road but they still seem to have the most potential to make the top 4 by the end of the season.
7. Northeastern - Seems like they have turned into a cupcake like so many others in Hockey East for BC.
8. Clarkson - The talent is there to move up but will they?
9. UND - Unlike Bemidji, they don't seem to be who they are. What you see is not always what you get.
10. UMD - Harvard win puts them here but only by the slimmest margin over others.

Really like this ranking, especially the sneaky suspicion that Harvard is going to climb the rankings. Big game vs Quinnipiac on Sat.

 

[wwhyte]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

BrickALick, Cava, and Stalder

Cava was their standout player both games against BC, even though I think she ended the second one pointless. Wonder where U Conn would be in the conversation if she'd stayed there.

 

[wwhyte]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1 Boston College
2 Wisconsin
3 Minnesota
4 Clarkson
5 Quinnipiac
6 Bemidji State
7 Harvard
8 Northeastern
9 Colgate
10 Princeton

I'm going purely on WINP and OPWP for this week. Wisco look better than BC but their opposition has a much lower WINP. Colgate have a WINP higher than Northeastern on an OPWP of .44, the same as BC's. Princeton have a .625 WINP with an OPWP higher than everyone in the top ten bar Northeastern and Bemidji, and higher than NoDak who are one place below them. Spare a thought for UMD and Yale with OPWP of 68% and 76% respectively, no-one else has over 60%.

 

[FiveHoleFrenzy]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1 Boston College
2 Wisconsin
3 Minnesota
4 Clarkson
5 Quinnipiac
6 Bemidji State
7 Harvard
8 Northeastern
9 Colgate
10 Princeton

I'm going purely on WINP and OPWP for this week. Wisco look better than BC but their opposition has a much lower WINP. Colgate have a WINP higher than Northeastern on an OPWP of .44, the same as BC's. Princeton have a .625 WINP with an OPWP higher than everyone in the top ten bar Northeastern and Bemidji, and higher than NoDak who are one place below them. Spare a thought for UMD and Yale with OPWP of 68% and 76% respectively, no-one else has over 60%.

As of now, barring what occurs between Wisconsin and Minnesota this weekend, I think 1 and 2 (in whatever order you put them) are the best two teams and there is a bit of separation above Minnesota with them. Minnesota has shown some small cracks in the foundation (penalty kill and goaltending) and we will see if those become bigger issues against Wisconsin or if they can overcome those issues.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Last call, poll will be compiled tonight

 

[PuckRush]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1 Boston College
2 Wisconsin
3 Minnesota
4 Clarkson
5 Quinnipiac

Clarkson being ranked at #4. Even though they lost 5-0 to Quinnipiac... well, I surrender. (If you read my posts below, you'll see my problem with Clarkson)

 

[wwhyte]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Clarkson being ranked at #4. Even though they lost 5-0 to Quinnipiac... well, I surrender. (If you read my posts below, you'll see my problem with Clarkson)

Right, but overall Clarkson have the same record as Quinni and a slightly better OPWP. Over the season as a whole they've been better; looking forward I would fancy Clarkson to do better at the end of the season than Quinni given Quinni's track record; Quinni look stronger over the recent past. Close call.

 

[ne7minder]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

As of now, barring what occurs between Wisconsin and Minnesota this weekend, I think 1 and 2 (in whatever order you put them) are the best two teams and there is a bit of separation above Minnesota with them. Minnesota has shown some small cracks in the foundation (penalty kill and goaltending) and we will see if those become bigger issues against Wisconsin or if they can overcome those issues.

Given that BC as to face the oh so formidable Maine this weekend my guess is you will have an excuse come Monday for you opinion. If they split that just 'proves' unbeaten BC is better, If Wisconsin sweeps well, MN is weak and if MN sweeps Wisc is over rated.

 

[Eeyore]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

You are correct about ND splitting with Syracuse.
Re Clarkson: I believe that roughly 10 of those 14 wins are against teams with a losing record.

This is not correct. When you do this, you really need to subtract the games Clarkson played against them to determine whether a team has a winning or losing record for the purposes of determining Clarkson's strength of schedule, but even without that adjustment, this is wrong. Clarkson has:

1) Two wins over 9-7-1 St. Lawrence (9-5-1 in other games);
2) Two wins over 11-7-0 BU (11-5-0 in other games);
3) Two wins over 7-9-1 Syracuse (7-7-1 in other games);
4) Two wins over 7-7-2 Connecticut (7-5-2 in other games);
5) One win over 7-4-1 Princeton (7-3-1 in other games).

The only wins that are unarguably against teams with losing records are the five against UNH, Union, and Vermont.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Week X Posters Poll

[U][B]Rank Votes  Team (1st place votes)  [I]Range (Mode)[/I]  Last week (change)[/B][/U]
  1.   119  Wisconsin (11)          [I]1-2   (1)[/I]     1
  2.   104  Minnesota               [I]2-3   (2)[/I]     2 
  3.   101  Boston College (1)      [I]1-3   (3)[/I]     3 
  4.    81  Quinnipiac              [I]4-5   (4)[/I]     4  
  5.    71  Bemidji State           [I]4-6   (5)[/I]     6 (+1)
  6.    56  Harvard                 [I]5-8   (6)[/I]     7 (+1)
  7.    50  Clarkson                [I]4-10  (7)[/I]     8 (+1)
  8.    40  Northeastern            [I]7-8   (8)[/I]     5 (-3)
  9.    18  Minnesota-Duluth        [I]8-NR  (9)[/I]     ARV (+2)
 10.    16  North Dakota            [I]9-NR  (10)[/I]    9 (-1) 
 
[U][B]Also Receiving Votes:[/B][/U]
         2  Colgate                 [I]9-NR  (9)[/I]     ARV
         1  Boston University       [I]10-NR (10)[/I]    10 (-1)
         1  Princeton               [I]10-NR (10)[/I]    ARV
             
[U][B]Dropped Out:[/B][/U]
            Dartmouth
            St. Lawrence

Week X chart: http://i.imgur.com/R4vomF8.jpg

 

[PuckRush]

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

This is not correct. When you do this, you really need to subtract the games Clarkson played against them to determine whether a team has a winning or losing record for the purposes of determining Clarkson's strength of schedule, but even without that adjustment, this is wrong. Clarkson has:

1) Two wins over 9-7-1 St. Lawrence (9-5-1 in other games);
2) Two wins over 11-7-0 BU (11-5-0 in other games);
3) Two wins over 7-9-1 Syracuse (7-7-1 in other games);
4) Two wins over 7-7-2 Connecticut (7-5-2 in other games);
5) One win over 7-4-1 Princeton (7-3-1 in other games).

The only wins that are unarguably against teams with losing records are the five against UNH, Union, and Vermont.

Good work and thank you. I stand corrected and sorry for my sloppy math (I just scanned their schedule and guessed who had losing record).

How's this? Based on your data, and not subtracting losses to Clarkson, of their 14 wins, 9 are against teams with .500 winning percentage or less. And of their 2 losses, one is to a team with a losing record. I just don't think that's enough to put them ahead of QU, Harvard, Bemidji, or Northeastern. If I'm right, that puts them at #8 best case.