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2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1) UW
2) BC
3) UM
4) QU

I would really love to hear anyone's reasoning for putting anything other than this top 4 in this order.

Now it gets a little trickier though.

5) Bemidji State -- wwhyte is in the process of developing a women's hockey ranking system. He showed me the model and I've been trying to improve it (but struggling). One of the methods he/we are looking at uses goal differential which seems to give a ranking that passes the smell test but I hate using goal differential. It penalizes a team like BSU. Look no further than this weekend's 1-0, 0-1 series against NoDak which was PEAK BEMIDJI, other than the fact that they lost one of them.

No one really did anything worthy of jumping Bemidji for this weekend so I'm pretty sure they have to stay in 5th.

6) Clarkson -- Now it gets really tough for 6 through 9. Harvard has to go ahead of NU for now IMO but they had an 0-fer weekend. NoDak split with a team ahead of them but I don't think that's enough to jump them up this high. Clarkson had a split weekend too but I don't think should fall particularly low. They still only have 3 losses. Given the quality of the teams Harvard has faced in these last couple losses I can't drop them too low, but Clarkson didn't get swept and played a couple decent opponents too. So Clarkson gets this spot.

7) Harvard -- We really want to give Harvard the benefit of the doubt, but they're making it hard. Two good opponents but you would think they would pull out at least a point.

8) Northeastern -- Behind Harvard for now, but WHEA sweep was a good way to get back on their feet.

9) North Dakota -- I hate putting them 9th, because I'm impressed with the Bemidji split, but I didn't think it was good enough to actually jump anyone in front of them who had similar weekends.

10) Princeton -- Last week I had UMD in 10th. It was a tough choice between them, SLU, and Princeton. SLU is obviously no longer in the discussion but Princeton is quietly working their way into the picture. Don't look now, but if the season were to end today, Princeton would be in the national tournament over Northeastern, Harvard, AND NoDak.
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

TonyTheTiger20 said:
5) Bemidji State -- wwhyte is in the process of developing a women's hockey ranking system. He showed me the model and I've been trying to improve it (but struggling). One of the methods he/we are looking at uses goal differential which seems to give a ranking that passes the smell test but I hate using goal differential. It penalizes a team like BSU. Look no further than this weekend's 1-0, 0-1 series against NoDak which was PEAK BEMIDJI, other than the fact that they lost one of them.
Click to expand...

Ratio of (Goals For)/(Goals Against) is a better approach than the difference of (Goals For) - (Goals Against) if women's college hockey is like any other sport studied like this. Depending upon what you're trying to do, it might be even better to put an exponent other than 1 on that ratio. I did some eyeballing of the data a couple of years ago, and my first guess is that an exponent in the neighborhood of 1.8 looked like it might fit, but that was some really crude analysis and shouldn't be anything more than a starting point, particularly since I found it counterintuitive that it was that low.

All of this follows on from the work of Clay Davenport in improving the Pythagorean formula Bill James came up with.
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

TonyTheTiger20 said:
6) Clarkson -- Now it gets really tough for 6 through 9. Harvard has to go ahead of NU for now IMO but they had an 0-fer weekend. NoDak split with a team ahead of them but I don't think that's enough to jump them up this high. Clarkson had a split weekend too but I don't think should fall particularly low. They still only have 3 losses. Given the quality of the teams Harvard has faced in these last couple losses I can't drop them too low, but Clarkson didn't get swept and played a couple decent opponents too. So Clarkson gets this spot.

7) Harvard -- We really want to give Harvard the benefit of the doubt, but they're making it hard. Two good opponents but you would think they would pull out at least a point.

8) Northeastern -- Behind Harvard for now, but WHEA sweep was a good way to get back on their feet.

9) North Dakota -- I hate putting them 9th, because I'm impressed with the Bemidji split, but I didn't think it was good enough to actually jump anyone in front of them who had similar weekends.

10) Princeton -- Last week I had UMD in 10th. It was a tough choice between them, SLU, and Princeton. SLU is obviously no longer in the discussion but Princeton is quietly working their way into the picture. Don't look now, but if the season were to end today, Princeton would be in the national tournament over Northeastern, Harvard, AND NoDak.
Click to expand...

I can see from your comment you are questioning your NoDak ranking. NoDak splits with the 5th ranked team. Harvard loses to the 4 and 10. That's why you're in doubt.

And Clarkson at 6? They lost to an unranked this weekend. Combine that with some other questionable losses and ties, and well... 6 is just too much.
 
PuckRush said:
I can see from your comment you are questioning your NoDak ranking. NoDak splits with the 5th ranked team. Harvard loses to the 4 and 10. That's why you're in doubt.

And Clarkson at 6? They lost to an unranked this weekend. Combine that with some other questionable losses and ties, and well... 6 is just too much.
Click to expand...
Yeah it's really tough in that cluster. I'm trying to mesh recent results with the body of work over the course of the season and it's just such a flustercuck
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1) Wisconsin
2) Boston College
3) Minnesota
4) Quinnipiac
5) Bemidji State
6) Northeastern
7) North Dakota
8) Colgate
9) Clarkson
10) Harvard

Tough 8-10 as Princeton and UMD could be in there too.

I have had a chance to watch Northeastern, Quinny, Princeton, and Colgate. I was most impressed with Colgate, but the QU games I watched were opening weekened. QU gets my top vote out of the four mentioned based on record, opponents and solid D and goaltending. Northeastern has been a little suspect in the defensive department, but they (KC) certainly can score. Colgate looked great, certainly not the Colgate teams of the last few years. Princeton impressed too, just not as much as the others - but great goaltending on that team too.
 
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Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

bc6696 said:
I have had a chance to watch Northeastern, Quinny, Princeton, and Colgate. I was most impressed with Colgate, but the QU games I watched were opening weekened. QU gets my top vote out of the four mentioned based on record, opponents and solid D and goaltending. Northeastern has been a little suspect in the defensive department, but they (KC) certainly can score. Colgate looked great, certainly not the Colgate teams of the last few years. Princeton impressed too, just not as much as the others - but great goaltending on that team too.
Click to expand...

Good overview of your rationale. Couple of things I think based on your observations:
1. Northeastern's starting goaltender is a freshman. They get flashes of brilliance and some frustrating inconsistency. I expect more brilliance and consistency as she acclimates to the college game.
2. Further on that thought, Northeastern did lose to Harvard by a score of 3-0. I know it's just one data point, but what we saw was more even play than showed up on the scoreboard, and the difference I think was that Northeastern couldn't solve Maschmeyer. I put Harvard and Northeastern much closer together in the poll based on that information.
3. Colgate is difficult to gauge. Ties with Union, RPI, Connecticut and Cornell, along with a loss to upstart Merrimack biases me to keep them out of the Top 10 for now. They've showed significant improvement over last year, but I think Clarkson, who's high ranking in recent polls I am critical of, has the better resume.
4. I think Princeton may be a better team than Colgate. They are a tough out and just beat Harvard. Other than a loss to Cornell early on, I don't see any head-scratching losses. They have tied QU, beat Harvard and Dartmouth, and beat Colgate head to head. They had a difficult lost weekend in upstate NY, where they lost to SLU and Clarkson back to back, but that is a conference rivalry and two pretty good road challenges.
5. I don't know exactly what to make of BSU, NoDak and MD. But I am biased toward the WCHA in terms of overall quality of play, so I have trouble keeping any of them out of the top 10. We do have the one data point of Harvard at MD, with a split of the weekend, so I'd say those three WCHA teams, plus Harvard and Northeastern are pretty darn close to each other in terms of ranking.
Thanks for your thoughts, lots of interesting things to think about, which evidently, you got me thinking about!
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1 UW
2 UM
3 BC
4 Q
5 BSU
6 UND
7 Clarkson
8 Harvatd
9 NE
10 Colgate

UM vs BC....BC played 4th/5th ranked NE evenly sog wise over their last 2 meetings, while UM totally dominated a 5th ranked BSU sog-wise. If you look at the UW/UM series, Friday UM and UW went to OT, UW scores a ppg to win in OT, otherwise that game was destined to be a tie. Saturday UW wins another tight game with an empty netter to make it 3-1, and UW was kinda hanging on for dear life in parts of that 3rd period. Yes overall UW was better than UM this weekend, but the margin was slim, so based on that slim margin and the fact that UM played better against an equally ranked opponent to BC (and let's face it, NE is not in the same league as BSU defensively), I give UM the nod.
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1) Wisconsin
2) Boston College
3) Minnesota
4) Quinnipiac
5) Bemidji State
6) Clarkson
7) North Dakota
8) Harvard
9) Princeton
10) Minnesota Duluth
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1. Wisconsin
2. Minnesota
3. BC
4. Quinnipiac
5. Bemidji State
6. Clarkson
7. Harvard
8. North Dakota
9. Northeastern
10. Princeton
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1) Wisconsin
2) Boston College
3) Minnesota
4) Quinnipiac
5) Bemidji State
6) Clarkson
7) North Dakota
8) Harvard
9) Princeton
10) Northeastern

5 thru 10 are just so difficult to judge where to slot them. They all have warts on their resume. Clarkson is the team that has baffled me the most out of this group. They have yet to be out shot in a game this year (including the Quinnipiac game) and if they had a statistic for time of possession in the games I have seen they have dominated that as well. They are a perfect 12-0-0 outside of the ECAC and while the teams they have beaten are not named Wisco, Minny or BC they still have managed to win all of these games. Took 2 from Syracuse who beat North Dakota. Took 2 from BU at BU (yes this team is another enigma but BU did take BC to OT and is in 2nd in HE). Their losses and ties in the ECAC they dominate time of possession and shots but they make a defensive mistake and the puck ends up in their net. Mean while I give credit to the other teams goalie for keeping their shots out of the net. I will say that the Colgate game this weekend was not one of Shea Tileys finest moments in the nets and neither was the defensive play in front of her on the Colgate goals. If anyone has not seen the hightlites of the game go to the ECAC web site (especially the game winning goal by Colgate, ugly). So I have put my green and gold colored glasses on and have slotted Clarkson at #6 :) but I could not argue much with anyone that slotted them as low as 10th. At this time I would argue with anyone who says they do not deserve to be in the top 10.
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1. Wisconsin
2. Boston College
3. Minnesota
4. Quinnipiac
5. Bemidji State
6. Northeastern
7. Clarkson
8. North Dakota
9. Harvard
10. Minnesota-Duluth

ARV: Princeton, Colgate
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Excuse...

Minnesota worked hard but got nothing to show for it because ARD played lights out.

1. Wisconsin
2. BC
3. Minnesota
4. Quinnipiac
5. Bemidji
6. Clarkson
7. Northeastern
8. North Dakota
9. Harvard
10. Princeton
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

NUWH DogHouse is away from his computer but wants his ballot included:

1) Wisconsin
2) bc
3) Minny
4) NU
5) Quinny
6) Harvard
7) Bemidji
8) Dakota
9) Clarkson
10) Colgate
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Week XI Posters Poll

Code: 
[U][B]Rank Votes  Team (1st place votes)  [I]Range (Mode)[/I]  Last week (change)[/B][/U]
  1.   110  Wisconsin (11)          [I]1-1   (1)[/I]     1
  2.    97  Boston College          [I]2-3   (2)[/I]     3 (+1)
  3.    90  Minnesota               [I]2-3   (3)[/I]     2 (-1) 
  4.    76  Quinnipiac              [I]4-5   (4)[/I]     4  
  5.    64  Bemidji State           [I]5-7   (5)[/I]     5
  6.    42  Clarkson                [I]6-10  (6)[/I]     6 (+1)
  7.    36  North Dakota            [I]6-10  (8)[/I]     8 (+3)
  8.    35  Harvard                 [I]6-10  (8)[/I]     8 (-2)
  9.    31  Northeastern            [I]4-NR  (9)[/I]     9 (-1)
 10.    10  Princeton               [I]8-NR  (10)[/I]    ARV (+1) 
 
[U][B]Also Receiving Votes:[/B][/U]
         7  Colgate                 [I]8-NR  (10)[/I]    ARV
         7  Minnesota-Duluth        [I]6-NR  (10)[/I]    9 (-2)
             
[U][B]Dropped Out:[/B][/U]
            Boston University

Week XI chart: http://i.imgur.com/aDRMfle.jpg

Some order in the top half. Not so much at the bottom.
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

Last ballot of 2015! Get those votes in.

1) Boston College
2) Wisconsin
3) Minnesota

4) Quinnipiac -- Chillin

Now wtf do I do... half these teams being idle does not help thanks to NoDak

5) Bemidji State -- I'll keep BSU here.
6) North Dakota -- Went 1-2-1 against Bemidji with one of those losses in OT and the other two games 1-0 scores. That's about as close as it gets.
7) Clarkson -- Idle, where I had them last week but dropped below NoDak.
8) Harvard -- Idle, where I had them last week but dropped below NoDak.
9) Northeastern -- Idle, where I had them last week but dropped below NoDak.
10) Princeton -- Not idle, two wins over a whatever team, but pretty damn close to the teams above them.

I feel dirty for putting 4 WCHA teams in the top 6 but here we are.
 
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Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1. BC - They just keep racking up impressive wins. Only way to gauge the East vs West strength is their 4-1 / 4-2 wins over MD.
2. Wisconsin - They just couldn't find the back of the net this weekend. A very good team that needs to come ready to play every night. When you're on top, everyone brings the "A" game. ND brought it.
3. Minnesota - St Cloud just another pin hit by a very big ball.
4. Quinnipiac - Not your grandfather's Quinny. Defense, goaltending and this new thing.. scoring.
5. Bemidji - Idle, but looking in rear-view mirror at ND.
6. North Dakota - If I told you 3-0, would anyone have guessed ND with the "3"? Congrats. How badly do they want to replay those Syracuse and Ohio State games?
7. Harvard - Idle, and someone convinced me they are better than UMD. Someone who actually saw the head-to-head games. So here they are.
8. UMD - Idle, but lost a spot because of someone being smarter than me.
9. Northeastern - A lot of good, but not great, teams in Hockey East at the moment. They've handled those and have a bunch more on the menu for January.
10. Clarkson - I've watched them play, I've looked at the box scores. I am the outlier voter who puts them here, which makes me nervous, but I don't know how to move them up. Maybe better than Northeastern? But I could argue Princeton here too.
 
Re: 2015-2016 USCHO Posters Poll

1) Boston College
2) Wisconsin
3) Minnesota
4) Quinnipiac
5) Bemidji State
6) North Dakota
7) Northeastern
8) Colgate
9) Clarkson
10) Harvard
 
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