And you’d better believe I’m sitting on a Marco Estrada fun fact. We’ve got split data going back to 2002, and since 2002, 401 pitchers have thrown at least 200 innings with the bases empty and also with the bases not empty. Between the splits, the average pitcher has an FIP 14 points lower with the bases empty. Estrada? 160 points lower. It’s the greatest gap out of the entire pool. With no one on, his career FIP is 3.49, and with someone or someones on, his career FIP is 5.09. Last year, 4.20 and 6.08. When pitching from the stretch, Estrada has generated fewer strikeouts while seeing more walks and dingers.
That’s a bad thing, obviously, because it means he pitches worse in more threatening situations. It’s also something the Blue Jays might feel they could be able to fix, but it’s just another of the issues with a pitcher who might not be worth the hassle. At his best, Estrada looks something like a No. 3 or a No. 4 starter, but the Jays have to figure out if they want to pay this guy upwards of $4 million. That’s a decision they don’t have to make for a handful of weeks.