2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

It seems logical to me. Good enough for something we can't control.

earle -- Nice work on taking a look at how much they lost. I wish there was some way to archive each day's PWR for that very reason.

So given what you said, you're absolutely right, and furthermore I actually think Wisconsin would lose a bit more than North Dakota lost, since a loss for Wisconsin would result in a bigger RPI hit.

North Dakota's winning percentage went from .729 to .673, a loss of .056. The winning percentage piece of the RPI calculation is about 25% (from what I remember), and 25% of .056 is, you guessed it, 0.140.

Wisconsin's winning percentage with two losses would go from .846 to .785, a loss of .061. 25% of that .0152 -- which would bring their RPI down to just a smidge above Cornell's. Not even accounting for Cornell winning their games and improving their own RPI.

So -- quality sleuthing there.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Newest bracketology is an easy one:

#8 North Dakota @ #1 Minnesota (no flight)
#7 Boston College @ #2 Wisconsin (ugh) (flight)
#6 Robert Morris @ #3 Cornell (no flight)
#5 Harvard @ #4 Clarkson (no flight)

I believe if BC flipped the comparison with RMU (I think this will necessarily happen this weekend with RMU playing Cuse -- either RMU will sweep and knock Cuse out of TUC status [or close to it] or Cuse will take one of the games and give RMU an extra TUC and CoOp loss) then you would see RMU go to Wisconsin (flight) and BC to Cornell (not a flight).

Me thinks there is still a few more variables to consider. There is a possibility Harvard is not in this list.

The way I see it right now, Minny and Wisco will host for sure, along with one team from the ECAC, Cornell or Clarkson and BC.

So with the hosts being Minny, Wisco, Cornell/Clarkson and BC you'll end up with the following as road teams:

Cornell/Clarkson, UND, RMU/MU, Havard/NU/BU/Quinny.

So they will either send the 8th team from the East to Minny or Wisco and let UND visit the other west team.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

you're absolutely right, and furthermore I actually think Wisconsin would lose a bit more than North Dakota lost, since a loss for Wisconsin would result in a bigger RPI hit.

North Dakota's winning percentage went from .729 to .673, a loss of .056. The winning percentage piece of the RPI calculation is about 25% (from what I remember), and 25% of .056 is, you guessed it, 0.140.

Wisconsin's winning percentage with two losses would go from .846 to .785, a loss of .061. 25% of that .0152 -- which would bring their RPI down to just a smidge above Cornell's. Not even accounting for Cornell winning their games and improving their own RPI.

So -- quality sleuthing there.

So will you create a graphical projection a la Rutter on this as well. (Re Graphical promise you made in Poll thread. ). I mean your are into it, might as well go the whole nine yards.

 

[robertearle]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

I wish there was some way to archive each day's PWR for that very reason....

... which would bring their RPI down to just a smidge above Cornell's. Not even accounting for Cornell winning their games and improving their own RPI.

I've been printing out the RPI list once a week for pretty much just this reason, and then writing the week-to-week 'deltas' by hand. The old-fashioned way!

Re: winning and improving RPI - while winning is obviously going to be preferable, (for example) this week Clarkson's wins over Union and Rensselaer netted them a gain of exactly .0001. A couple weeks ago, Wisconsin swept Bemidji, yet their RPI went DOWN .0008. Obviously because of the 'opponent' and 'opponent's opponents' pieces of RPI.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

The way I see it right now, Minny and Wisco will host for sure, along with one team from the ECAC, Cornell or Clarkson and BC.

Man, I'm as high on BC right now as almost anyone, but it's pretty ballsy to expect them to climb up to 4th! haha

It's not out of the realm of possibility, but they would basically need to win out (not unlikely), and have the winner of the Harvard/Clarkson game lose another game (not extremely likely), and hope Cornell wins the ECAC (not unlikely). Just a lot of pieces need to fall together.

So will you create a graphical projection a la Rutter on this as well. (Re Graphical promise you made in Poll thread. ). I mean your are into it, might as well go the whole nine yards.

I would LOVE to do this except I don't have access to the weekly RPI...

I've been printing out the RPI list once a week for pretty much just this reason, and then writing the week-to-week 'deltas' by hand. The old-fashioned way!

WHAT?? Could you scan and send that to me? I'd love to graph these over the course of the season...

I just now (literally 5 minutes ago) set up a task on my computer to have it pull the daily RPI and save the webpage on my computer. Assuming it works the way I want it to, I should be able to do it from here on now.

Re: winning and improving RPI - while winning is obviously going to be preferable, (for example) this week Clarkson's wins over Union and Rensselaer netted them a gain of exactly .0001. A couple weeks ago, Wisconsin swept Bemidji, yet their RPI went DOWN .0008. Obviously because of the 'opponent' and 'opponent's opponents' pieces of RPI.

Indeed, though their RPI would have gone down by that additional .0008 whether they won or not.

 

[robertearle]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

I would LOVE to do this except I don't have access to the weekly RPI...WHAT?? Could you scan and send that to me? I'd love to graph these over the course of the season...

Well, in keeping with my 'old fashioned way' theme of the day (I'm not a luddite, really!) I don't have a scanner. Probably the easiest way would be for me to make photocopies (at the local library, eg.) and "snail-mail" them to you.

Your profile here apparently provides a way to send you an email; I'll try to do that straight away, and we'll go from there.

 

[northhockey]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Eeyore is correct regarding the meaning of my original post. I did, however, fail to start it with "In the past …" to make the meaning crystal clear. After the comment about Minnesota not being ranked No. 1 again for a long time prior to UND's visit to Minneapolis in November, I'm surprised that northhockey is now so anxious to play the "disrespect" card. I guess we hold others to higher standards. But just to dispel any remaining reading comprehension issues, I think that the outcome of any possible WCHA or NCAA meeting between North Dakota and Minnesota is still in doubt.

I think pokechecker hacked my account......

Actually, I misread your post. No disrespect was meant. I thought you were taking a playful jab at UND so I was playing along!

 

[northhockey]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

You funny. Are you being just as Confident, or are you talking about future years ?

I see that being the scenario the next few years, if its ncaa quarters, semis, or final.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Man, I'm as high on BC right now as almost anyone, but it's pretty ballsy to expect them to climb up to 4th! haha

It's not out of the realm of possibility, but they would basically need to win out (not unlikely), and have the winner of the Harvard/Clarkson game lose another game (not extremely likely), and hope Cornell wins the ECAC (not unlikely). Just a lot of pieces need to fall together.

Actually believe that BC can run the table from here on in and that the top 3 in the ECAC will squander points against each other and possibly vs Quinny. Therefore fairly confident that the 3/4 spots will be occupied by the strongest ECAC team and BC when it is all said and done.

 

[ARM]

Actually believe that BC can run the table from here on in ...

That sounds reasonable. I've expected the same from the Eagles the previous three years, but it never happened, and all those teams reached the Frozen Four. MacSorley of Northeastern said that Boston teams put so much into the Beanpot that it can sometimes hurt in the games that follow. I don't know if that is what has gotten BC in other years, but you are right, on paper, the Eagles should run.

 

[wwhyte]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

That sounds reasonable. I've expected the same from the Eagles the previous three years, but it never happened, and all those teams reached the Frozen Four. MacSorley of Northeastern said that Boston teams put so much into the Beanpot that it can sometimes hurt in the games that follow. I don't know if that is what has gotten BC in other years, but you are right, on paper, the Eagles should run.

I would be surprised if BU let us get the series sweep TBH. Pre-Christmas BU has to show up at some point.

 

[pokechecker]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

so does the ranking scheme make a difference?
it does if you aren't MN or WI
the pairings for the NCAA touranament:

According to KRACH:
Robert Morris would be at MN
BC would be at WI
Harvard would be at UND
Clarkson would be at Cornell

with the coaches (USA), the only change is the home teams for #3 & #4:
same
same
Cornell at Clarkson
UND at Harvard

acccording to Rutter, not that different:
same
same
Clarkson would be at UND
Cornell would be at Harvard


but for US Hockey Poll:
Robert Morris is out
Quinipiac at MN
BC still at WI
Harvard at Clarkson
Cornell at UND


but things start to get crazy with RPI:
Robert Morris at MN
UND at WI (opponents for the 6th time this year)
BC at Cornell
Harvard at Clarkson

it really gets weird with Pairwise
UND might be out
UND or Mercyhurst at MN
BC at WI (like KRACH, USA/Today, & Rutter)
Robert Morris at Cornell
Harvard at Clarkson

the ranking system that is the outlier, that is to say, the most different from the rest, some would say the least accurate is....
the system actually used to rank the teams for the tournament
so... will it ever change?
not likely,
the teams with the most to lose by a change comprise over 75% of the vote
the teams with the most to gain by a change comprise less than 25%

democracy, ... and you thought it was fair form of governance

 

[Skate79]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Actually believe that BC can run the table from here on in and that the top 3 in the ECAC will squander points against each other and possibly vs Quinny. Therefore fairly confident that the 3/4 spots will be occupied by the strongest ECAC team and BC when it is all said and done.

Too early to tell. A lot depends on the outcome of Harvard-Clarkson and if both teams win out apart from that game. If Harvard wins, they will be undefeated against both Cornell and Clarkson. And if they win the ECAC tournament, they are a lock for a top 4. In fact, I would go so far as to say that the loser of the tournament finale (if it is Clarkson or Cornell) may also get a top 4 seed.

 

[ARM]

Pre-Christmas BU has to show up at some point.

I'm trying to decide if the first-half BU was overachieving. It won a number of games that could have easily gone either way. Then it lost Tutino, and when I watch the Terriers now, only Lefort and Warren look capable of making plays to decide games in their favor. If BC has truly found its groove, then those are games that the Eagles should be able to control.

 

[whoop87]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

My take on the situation is that BU definitely overachieved in the 1st half. Their schedule was not that difficult either and they eked out a few wins over lower tiered teams. Their defense is suspect and with the season ending injury to Tutino, their offense took a hit as well. I think the team you're seeing now is the real BU - more of a .500 club. They were ranked too high from the get go, IMHO.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

The RPI is starting to resemble a ten car pileup behind Wisconsin.

After this weekend, the Ten Car Pile-up is even more messy.

 

[Eeyore]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

After this weekend, the Ten Car Pile-up is even more messy.

I was leaning towards a train derailment as my metaphor of choice.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

I haven't followed the PWR week-in and week-out so far this season, but I've always thought the biggest problem with the NCAA selection criteria is that when it comes to picking the marginal teams, it's somewhat random whether you pick the teams that have the best chance of making the tournament competitive. By that I mean the criteria should value proven ability to beat the best teams above all else. My passion on that issues goes back to the 2000 national tourney selections, when Harvard was 2-0-1 against the top 3 seeds, Dartmouth was winless, but Dartmouth got the nod because they'd beaten Harvard 3 times (granted, this was an entirely different selection regime). Today the NCAA selection criteria don't even overweight the ability to beat the best -- if anything, they underweight it.

Today you have a situation where UND's win over Minnesota should clearly be what let's them stand out against the rest of the at-large field -- certainly voters feel that way, and KRACH/Rutter give UND appropriate credit -- but the current selection criteria does not. The problems with the criteria become more apparent every season.

 

[FiveHoleFrenzy]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

UND has the win over Minnesota that stands out, however they have 3 losses that were not close. Speculation for sure, but if BC, Clarkson, Cornell, or Harvard had 4 cracks at Minnesota during the regular season, I'd like their odds to win ONE game as well.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

UND has the win over Minnesota that stands out, however they have 3 losses that were not close. Speculation for sure, but if BC, Clarkson, Cornell, or Harvard had 4 cracks at Minnesota during the regular season, I'd like their odds to win ONE game as well.

Fair point to discuss: I agree you can't give too much credit to UND for doing something other teams could've easily done anyway if they had the same schedule.

But here's what KRACH says is the probability (out of 100) of each team taking 2 or more points out of 8 from Minnesota:
Wisco 73, UND 41, Cornell 30, Harvard 26, Clarkson 25, BC 15.

So UND overperformed relative to its other results in beating Minnesota, and it's a far better performance than we would've expected for any of the other teams.

And to be clear, I'm bringing this up more to suggest that UND should be at least a clear solid #7 in the nation now (rather than better than the other teams you named, for which you can make an argument), but UND can't even say that right now under the current criteria.