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2012 Presidential Election Part 4

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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Rover said:
Big batch of swing state polls:

Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (OnSight Public Affairs)

Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46% (Sunshine State News)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Gravis)

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Gravis)

New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (New England College)

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

Colorado: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Colorado: Obama 46%, Romney 43% (Project New America)

Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49% (Gravis)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Project New America)

Iowa:: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Michigan: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Foster McCollum)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist)

North Carolina: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling)

Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Rasmussen)

Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Virginia: Romney 47%, Obama 45% (Fox News)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)


My thoughts: I think its problematic for Mittens when GOP pollsters themselves have him losing or tied. For example, its highly unlikely Romney ends up outperforming a Rasmussen or Gravis poll. Its more likely he underperforms it, which why if I were his campaign I'd be on the phone to Razzy telling him to give me an outside the margin of error result dammit!!! ;)
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I am highly skeptical of polls only based on a miniscule sample size (and those not polling actual voters). Michigan being tied? No way. But that goes back to Scooby's snappy "moron" tag. They'd elect the likes of Saddam Hussein if he ran on the Democrat ticket. Granholm was so bad pandering to the unions etc.for 8 years that a moderate Republican Gov. was elected. That was a miracle. But no, not the presidency....
 
streaker said:
I am highly skeptical of polls only based on a miniscule sample size (and those not polling actual voters). Michigan being tied? No way. But that goes back to Scooby's snappy "moron" tag. They'd elect the likes of Saddam Hussein if he ran on the Democrat ticket. Granholm was so bad pandering to the unions etc.for 8 years that a moderate Republican Gov. was elected. That was a miracle. But no, not the presidency....
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I didn't want to cherry pick polls, but rather post them all and let people sort through it. I've never heard of that pollster before FWIW.

However, as an Obama supporter, I am worried about the Meat Loaf endorsement of Romney! This has the potential to be game changer, especially amongst the "old people with bad taste in music" demographic!!!
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

5mn_Major said:
Who is the grown up in the room?

Texas? Attorney General Greg Abbott is now threatening to prosecute any observer who breaks state law by getting too close to any polling site. "Failure to comply with these requirements could subject the OSCE's representatives to criminal prosecution for violating state law," he wrote.

South Carolina? "Whoever wants to come observe South Carolina elections, we welcome them," he told FoxNews.com. "We want our election to be as open as possible."
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Greg Abbott. Who just insured he'll be re-elected AG as long as he wants. Only a libstain would think it's appropriate or necessary for some European a*sholes to "monitor" elections in the United States. I woudn't want those pr*cks monitoring the student council elections at my high school. Is there nothing libstains won't endorse to belittle, criticize, condemn or put down America? Incomplete returns indicate "no."
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Rover said:
I didn't want to cherry pick polls, but rather post them all and let people sort through it. I've never heard of that pollster before FWIW.

However, as an Obama supporter, I am worried about the Meat Loaf endorsement of Romney! This has the potential to be game changer, especially amongst the "old people with bad taste in music" demographic!!!
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And that is a significant demographic that could tip the scales! But I'm sure the Dems could roll out a few musical folks that would appeal to the same demographic. There's no shortage of bad music out there.
 
Old Pio said:
Greg Abbott. Who just insured he'll be re-elected AG as long as he wants. Only a libstain would think it's appropriate or necessary for some European a*sholes to "monitor" elections in the United States. I woudn't want those pr*cks monitoring the student council elections at my high school. Is there nothing libstains won't endorse to belittle, criticize, condemn or put down America? Incomplete returns indicate "no."
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You seem angry, Opie. Any correlation to Mittens' trouble in the latest polling?
 
Bob Gray said:
And that is a significant demographic that could tip the scales! But I'm sure the Dems could roll out a few musical folks that would appeal to the same demographic. There's no shortage of bad music out there.
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Hey I hear ya. Our only hope is that these people are already accounted for in either one's coalition, because if they truly are a swing vote we're all screwed!!!
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Well, most Deadheads are now about 60 and are part of the Boomer generation, which is going to bankrupt the country with their entitlements, so it makes sense.
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And there is that chance they could write in Humphrey during flashback mode.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
the Boomer generation, ... is going to bankrupt the country with their entitlements.
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Isn't that "blaming the victim" so to speak? shouldn't the people who promised the entitlements get the blame instead? and not the people who dutifully coughed up semi-monthly or weekly paycheck deductions for their entire working lives as their part of the bargain?
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

FreshFish said:
Isn't that "blaming the victim" so to speak? shouldn't the people who promised the entitlements get the blame instead? and not the people who dutifully coughed up semi-monthly or weekly paycheck deductions for their entire working lives as their part of the bargain?
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There is blame for people who created the entitlements. But, there's also blame for people who subsequently kept expanding entitlements and promising more and more benefits (and the people who kept demanding such expansions). For something like Social Security, the typical person takes out far beyond what they put in.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Bob Gray said:
For something like Social Security, the typical person takes out far beyond what they put in.
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Isn't that how compound interest is supposed to work?

For the typical IRA or 401k you also are supposed to take out much more than you put in as well, no??
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

FreshFish said:
Isn't that how compound interest is supposed to work?

For the typical IRA or 401k you also are supposed to take out much more than you put in as well, no??
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Yes and no. It's not strictly compound interest that's of interest. When the SSA was setup, not only was there about 29 people paying in for every one person collecting, the eligibility age for benefits was set to be roughly a year prior to the average age of death for a US citizen. So now that we're living so much longer, having fewer children as a society and haven't extended the benefits age proportionately, we're seeing the program's insolvency. Add to that, there weren't all of the tag-on programs such SSI.

Besides that, the effective interest rate for the SSA benefit is about 2% per beneficiary. So the compounding effect is minimized compared to historic inflation rates.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

FreshFish said:
Isn't that how compound interest is supposed to work?

For the typical IRA or 401k you also are supposed to take out much more than you put in as well, no??
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But, taking into account compound interest, they still take out a lot more than they put in. We've been borrowing against future generations and their benefits to pay current benefits for a long time.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Bob Gray said:
And that is a significant demographic that could tip the scales! But I'm sure the Dems could roll out a few musical folks that would appeal to the same demographic. There's no shortage of bad music out there.
Click to expand...
Neil Young vs. Kid Rock throwdown!
 
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