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2012 Presidential Election Part 4

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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

I don't see that Silver is predicting a "near landslide" for Obama. His current prediction is 288 to 250 for Obama in the electoral college and 50.0 to 48.9 for Obama in the popular vote--nothing near a landslide at all.

68.1% likelihood of winning does not mean he is predicting a landslide--just the opposite in fact; he is stating that the election is still in doubt. For comparison purposes, if the home team leads a baseball game 4-3 through 6 innings, they have a 68.3 percent chance of winning. Silver is saying that Obama has a 1-run lead going into the top of the 7th.

OK, "Landslide" was overly dramatic. But there are two main points I wanted to make: First that his movement is in the opposite direction of the others, which show Romney gaining (somebody's got to be wrong on that). Second, that he already has Obama winning far more comfortably, 70% chance vs. a 55% chance. Fivethirtyeight is either way ahead of the curve again, or falling behind it.
 
Is that worse than lying? For two weeks? Repeatedly?

Yes its far worse to issue a bogus press release while the attack is happening slandering the staff under attack then taking two weeks to clarify what happened after conducting an investigation in a lawless land.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

It's called the religion's spin. The devout ones here want everyone to believe that any person other than the messiah dictator doesn't have a chance in hell to win, and make a Middle Eastern "election" look competitive.

I'm not one of those "devout ones". My vote is actually not set in stone yet, especially if "Mitt" promises to fire Bernanke, I might be inclined to let him do it.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

I'm not one of those "devout ones". My vote is actually not set in stone yet, especially if "Mitt" promises to fire Bernanke, I might be inclined to let him do it.
I can't imagine Mitt would keep Bernanke around, given Bernanke's role in helping Obama juice the economy and all.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Your little feelings hurt? Give it up, dear. Everyone understood the concept of your varying standards of outrage at dodging the draft, except you.
And those perplexing varied standards of accountability in the political arena? Is everyone up to speed?
 
And those perplexing varied standards of accountability in the political arena? Is everyone up to speed?

Opie's just being a good little conservative. Clearly what happened 4 years ago (Bush II era) is totally irrelavent, but what happened 32 years ago (Reagan election) is the driving force behind this election.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Opie's just being a good little conservative. Clearly what happened 4 years ago (Bush II era) is totally irrelavent, but what happened 32 years ago (Reagan election) is the driving force behind this election.

Given knucks are calling this Jimmy Carter's second term, why not?
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

* the latest conspiracy theory is that if Obama loses a close election, he will have armies of attorneys ready to keep the results tied up in court indefinitely. During the process, more and more "overlooked" votes will continue to be "discovered."

Which orifice did you pull this one out of? I think it is time to get back on your meds the voices are taking over again Fishy.

Of course I am sure if Romney loses a close one he will step down and make no challenge. and I am sure when he doesnt do that and does challenge you will not be here trumpeting your support for it like the fraud you are :D
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

OK, "Landslide" was overly dramatic. But there are two main points I wanted to make: First that his movement is in the opposite direction of the others, which show Romney gaining (somebody's got to be wrong on that). Second, that he already has Obama winning far more comfortably, 70% chance vs. a 55% chance. Fivethirtyeight is either way ahead of the curve again, or falling behind it.


I kind of suspect that a decent chunk of Silver's movement at this point is likely that we're down to 13 days, and every day where polls have it at 50-48 and the swing states similar adds a point to Obama's %. That would put it around ~80% on election day, and if one guy has been consistently down 1.5-2 points, that's pretty reasonable.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

I'm sure both sides have armies of attorneys on hand for any close races or other issues that come up. Such is the world we live in.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

And those perplexing varied standards of accountability in the political arena? Is everyone up to speed?

I'd say your more than just a littlle obsessive here. Let me try explaining it to you, using simple words. I'd recommend taking notes. You profess to be outraged that Romney took advantage of the law, which permitted religious deferrments. My belief is you had no such qualms about Bill Clinton, who got a student deferrment based on his representations to Colonel Holmes that he would attend the University of Arkansas law school and enroll in ROTC. He did neither. Now, if I'm wrong, and you cricized Clinton for his far more outrageous manipulation of the Selective Service System, then I will apologize. Otherwise, why not just admit what a phony you are on this issue and move on?

Not just a troll, but a retarded troll.
 
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

From the Associated Press:

Two hours after the U.S. Consulate came under attack in Benghazi, Libya, the White House was told that a militant group was claiming responsibility for the violence that killed the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans.

A State Department email sent to intelligence officials and the White House situation room said the Islamist group Ansar al-Sharia claimed responsibility on Facebook and Twitter, and also called for an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

So I was driving home yesterday listening the the radio, and someone starts interviewing this Virgil Goode fellow who is running for President. When I got home I googled him and he's in line with my views and is similar to Ron Paul, who also falls more in line with my view than Obama and Romney. What other 3rd party candidates are out there?
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Yes its far worse to issue a bogus press release while the attack is happening slandering the staff under attack then taking two weeks to clarify what happened after conducting an investigation in a lawless land.

". . .demonstration." Ladies and gentlemen, the last person in America who thinks what happened in Benghazi was in any way related to a demonstration (over a video, free rubbers or anything else). "'Tis but a scratch."
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4

Opie's just being a good little conservative. Clearly what happened 4 years ago (Bush II era) is totally irrelavent, but what happened 32 years ago (Reagan election) is the driving force behind this election.

Says the person who earlier today defended His Truthlessness' lying about Benghazi by bringing up Reagan.
 
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