FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4
I almost missed putting you on ignore. You make internet trolls look civilised.
I almost missed putting you on ignore. You make internet trolls look civilised.
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2012 Presidential Election Part 4
- Thread starter ericredaxe
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4
Well, now we have a much better idea of what His Truthlessness knew and when he knew it. And we also know he's a lying sack of sh*t on the subject of what "caused" the Benghazi massacre and who was responsible for it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/24/us-usa-benghazi-emails-idUSBRE89N02C20121024
Well, now we have a much better idea of what His Truthlessness knew and when he knew it. And we also know he's a lying sack of sh*t on the subject of what "caused" the Benghazi massacre and who was responsible for it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/24/us-usa-benghazi-emails-idUSBRE89N02C20121024
Foxton
Banned
Old PO'd, once again you're so full of s h it that your stench is extending all the way to Texas. A guy as old as you should know that a Facebook posting taking credit for an attack two hours later isn't "proof" of anything. Are you really this dumb? How many times during the Reagan admin did an attack happen in say Lebanon and 3 different groups took credit for it?
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4
Interesting that real clear politics (average of current polls) has Romney actually ahead by a whisker at this point, Intrade has him tightening the gap at 45% likelihood of being elected, and yet fivethirtyeight.com reverses this trend with Obama pulling away and widening his lead into a near landslide win (70% likelihood, umpteen zillion electoral votes, etc).
After this election, Nate Silver will either be re-crowned as a genius above all others (as in the accuracy of his predictions in 2008, which could not then be counted as lucky), or be disgraced and working at Burger King. He is stepping further away from conventional wisdom every day.
I suspect he'll be more right than wrong, as in Obama still wins by a fairly comfortable margin but probably not the landslide Nate is hoping for. We shall see.
EDIT: sorry, my mistake. Real Clear Politics also still has Obama ahead, when "leaners" are plugged in. So they're fairly close to agreeing, except that RCP has Romney winning the pop vote while losing the election.
Interesting that real clear politics (average of current polls) has Romney actually ahead by a whisker at this point, Intrade has him tightening the gap at 45% likelihood of being elected, and yet fivethirtyeight.com reverses this trend with Obama pulling away and widening his lead into a near landslide win (70% likelihood, umpteen zillion electoral votes, etc).
After this election, Nate Silver will either be re-crowned as a genius above all others (as in the accuracy of his predictions in 2008, which could not then be counted as lucky), or be disgraced and working at Burger King. He is stepping further away from conventional wisdom every day.
I suspect he'll be more right than wrong, as in Obama still wins by a fairly comfortable margin but probably not the landslide Nate is hoping for. We shall see.
EDIT: sorry, my mistake. Real Clear Politics also still has Obama ahead, when "leaners" are plugged in. So they're fairly close to agreeing, except that RCP has Romney winning the pop vote while losing the election.
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Rimbaud
New member
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com has Obama's polling average at 51.1 to 42.8 in MN, with a 97% chance of Obama winning. It'd be a pretty big surprise if MN went to Romney.
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com has Obama's polling average at 51.1 to 42.8 in MN, with a 97% chance of Obama winning. It'd be a pretty big surprise if MN went to Romney.
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4
This ought to be fun! Quoting you in case my good friend Old Pio has you on ignore.
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4
Yup, what Reagan did or did not do or knew or didn't know is certainly relevant now, arsewipe. What's the matter, Bunky, do you feel it slipping away?
Yup, what Reagan did or did not do or knew or didn't know is certainly relevant now, arsewipe. What's the matter, Bunky, do you feel it slipping away?
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4
I don't see that Silver is predicting a "near landslide" for Obama. His current prediction is 288 to 250 for Obama in the electoral college and 50.0 to 48.9 for Obama in the popular vote--nothing near a landslide at all.
68.1% likelihood of winning does not mean he is predicting a landslide--just the opposite in fact; he is stating that the election is still in doubt. For comparison purposes, if the home team leads a baseball game 4-3 through 6 innings, they have a 68.3 percent chance of winning. Silver is saying that Obama has a 1-run lead going into the top of the 7th.
I don't see that Silver is predicting a "near landslide" for Obama. His current prediction is 288 to 250 for Obama in the electoral college and 50.0 to 48.9 for Obama in the popular vote--nothing near a landslide at all.
68.1% likelihood of winning does not mean he is predicting a landslide--just the opposite in fact; he is stating that the election is still in doubt. For comparison purposes, if the home team leads a baseball game 4-3 through 6 innings, they have a 68.3 percent chance of winning. Silver is saying that Obama has a 1-run lead going into the top of the 7th.
Slipping away? You gotta be kidding. With Nevada moving into the O's camp he's at about 243 electoral votes counting all the states Mittens isn't even contesting. That's not even including Wisconsin. With a nice lead in early voting the vice is tightening day after day on the Mittens campaign.
Isn't it funny how all the stories about Obama pulling out of FL, VA, and NC while the Mittwit going into MI and PA turned out to be false, just like his supposed leads in all those places? Not a good sign that a campaign has to resort to fake news stories to try to create the impression of winning instead of having some, you know, actual hard data to that effect...
FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4
It's called the religion's spin. The devout ones here want everyone to believe that any person other than the messiah dictator doesn't have a chance in hell to win, and make a Middle Eastern "election" look competitive.
It's called the religion's spin. The devout ones here want everyone to believe that any person other than the messiah dictator doesn't have a chance in hell to win, and make a Middle Eastern "election" look competitive.
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4
Or were you suggesting that Bush 41 should get credit for ending the Cold War?
At least when he gets credit for something, it happened AFTER he was in office, so there's an actual possibility for cause-and-effect, unlike say, someone winning a Nobel Peace Prize just for being on the ballot.
Or were you suggesting that Bush 41 should get credit for ending the Cold War?
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
ScoobyDoo
NPC
At least when he gets credit for something, it happened AFTER he was in office, so there's an actual possibility for cause-and-effect, unlike say, someone winning a Nobel Peace Prize just for being on the ballot.
Or were you suggesting that Bush 41 should get credit for ending the Cold War?
Hey Bush I did a good job on foreign policy too. Winning the Cold War was a colletive effort from Truman to Bush I (although I'm not sure what Carter or Ford did to advance the cause). Where Reagan (and to some extent Bush) deserve the most credit is knowing when to pivot from blood adversaries to partners when the Soviet Union started opening up. That IMHO sped up the demise of the corrupt old system but is a historical fact that tends to get overlooked. Perhaps its because arms limitations treaties are now a partisan issue for some strange reason and proponents of them (Lugar) get turfed in primaries for being too liberal.
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4
https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/260755924493418496
Shoot, that might be a better investment then ads at this point if you get CNN/FOX/MSNBC talking about Intrade calling it a 50/50 race.
Edit: If it's only $1250 in loss, it's easily a better expenditure of money.
https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/260755924493418496
Shoot, that might be a better investment then ads at this point if you get CNN/FOX/MSNBC talking about Intrade calling it a 50/50 race.
Edit: If it's only $1250 in loss, it's easily a better expenditure of money.
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4
Naw, he's saying that in his world, Reagan never deserves "credit" for anything. A few bored construction workers just happened to be out for a stroll after work one evening in East Berlin, and on a lark, they decided to climb up on the Berlin Wall and start whacking away, and the East German Stasi all just happened to be on break at the time, and suddenly the wall came down! It was a "spontaneous demonstration" no doubt.
The fact that Reagan said "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" and then the wall did come down is merely coincidence.
At least when he gets credit for something, it happened AFTER he was in office, so there's an actual possibility for cause-and-effect, unlike say, someone winning a Nobel Peace Prize just for being on the ballot.
Or were you suggesting that Bush 41 should get credit for ending the Cold War?
Naw, he's saying that in his world, Reagan never deserves "credit" for anything. A few bored construction workers just happened to be out for a stroll after work one evening in East Berlin, and on a lark, they decided to climb up on the Berlin Wall and start whacking away, and the East German Stasi all just happened to be on break at the time, and suddenly the wall came down! It was a "spontaneous demonstration" no doubt.
The fact that Reagan said "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" and then the wall did come down is merely coincidence.
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part 4
Okay, so we rule out hysteria about the election. I guess the only conclusion that leaves is that you're just a natural jerk. We got it. No question, lying about whether you're moving campaign resources from one state to another could be construed as "politics." And what is it when POTUS dissembles for a couple of weeks about a non-existant video? Isn't that "politics" as well? Only in this case, you've got four dead Americans whose deaths, evidently, aren't nearly so important as getting that jumped up cheap sh*t Chicago pol re-elected. Yup, you're on the side of the angels.
Okay, so we rule out hysteria about the election. I guess the only conclusion that leaves is that you're just a natural jerk. We got it. No question, lying about whether you're moving campaign resources from one state to another could be construed as "politics." And what is it when POTUS dissembles for a couple of weeks about a non-existant video? Isn't that "politics" as well? Only in this case, you've got four dead Americans whose deaths, evidently, aren't nearly so important as getting that jumped up cheap sh*t Chicago pol re-elected. Yup, you're on the side of the angels.
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