2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

[Handyman]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Then why do people say pregnant women "glow"??

1) The same reason people with fevers glow...they are sweaty and disgusting
2) You say anything to not **** off the large hormonal woman

Here endeth the lesson

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Interesting poll about The Mittster sinking like a stone with independents:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...nts-continues/2012/02/13/gIQAYYqGBR_blog.html

Not sure I've ever seen a situation where a guy won the Presidency even though the more people saw of him, the less they liked him. The worst part in all of this if you're a Mittens man is that he's basically had all the adverstising to himself, as Obama hasn't gone up with ads yet and his GOP rivals are all broke. Makes you wonder what will happen when he's getting outspent...

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Not sure I've ever seen a situation where a guy won the Presidency even though the more people saw of him, the less they liked him.

Richard Nixon. And he did it twice.

Reagan was falling like a stone in October 1980, too. Another month and Carter would have probably beaten him.

You can win even with mounting negatives. You just need to time it right and run against the incumbent party during a national calamity. Or face George McGovern.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Richard Nixon. And he did it twice.

Reagan was falling like a stone in October 1980, too. Another month and Carter would have probably beaten him.

You can win even with mounting negatives. You just need to time it right and run against the incumbent party during a national calamity. Or face George McGovern.

Fair point about Nixon. I remember sorta the 1980 campaign and Carter did get a boost initially from the hostage situation (rally around the flag) until the disasterous rescue mission IIRC sometime in October. I think that was the only thing his campaign had going for him, and when that went sour it was blowout city come election night.

Don't think The Mittster is going to be so lucky. Really problematic that turnout is down in Florida and Nevada, and only hit prior levels in NH and Iowa due to the strong showing of the Paul cultists. I'm watching with great interest how he handles Sanitarium in the next couple of contests. He's already been warned point blank not to go postal with negative advertising by some influential cons.

 

[Twitch Boy]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

I'm watching with great interest how he handles Sanitarium in the next couple of contests. He's already been warned point blank not to go postal with negative advertising by some influential cons.

They probably want Frothy looking good so they can put him up for VP and get the fundies on board.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

My thought all along has been that Romney will eventually get the nod behind closed doors, provided he agrees to pick Santorum as his running mate.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Richard Nixon. And he did it twice.

Reagan was falling like a stone in October 1980, too. Another month and Carter would have probably beaten him.

You can win even with mounting negatives. You just need to time it right and run against the incumbent party during a national calamity. Or face George McGovern.

Yeah, Reagan was "falling like a stone," all right. That's why he won 44 states, against an incumbent, in a three man race. And helped win the Senate in the bargain. "There you go again, Mr. Kepler."

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

They probably want Frothy looking good so they can put him up for VP and get the fundies on board.

That's always a fine line to walk. Both Reagan-Bush and Clinton-Gore had to scale back their primary battles to swallow the ticket for the general. But, in both case, it worked.

That seems about as good a ticket as the GOP could come up with, electorally. The money will pour in for Mittens, and the rank and file will line up for Frothy Mix.

There will be an interesting disconnect in the rhetoric, though. Both of those guys are Big Government -- Mittens believes government is just another arm of big business, and FM believes in a Christian Sharia where government can force people to observe God's Law. Conservatives have been in automatic mode voting for the GOP for the last 3 decades, but there is nothing "conservative" about that ticket. (I suppose they still have nowhere to go.)

But if the economy continues to improve the GOP won't want to run on economics, anyway. Suddenly we will be back in 2004 mode with all the fringe social issues blaring on the TV. It's no coincidence that the birth control tantrums started the same week the good growth numbers came out.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Birth control is going to be a campaign issue? It's like Christmas everyday for Democrats.

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"You've confused a war on your religion with not always getting everything you want."

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Riding the social conservative tiger is tricky. There's some whacked out beliefs there, and the bishops not accepting Obama's deal plays into his hands. The hard core base doesn't want to give up an issue most people have already moved on from. Its one thing to take a stand against abortion as most people haven't had one. Its another thing entirely to go against a practice that 99% of the population engaged in at one point or another in their lives.

Regarding Romney-Santorum, that equals McCain-Palin. A mistrusted nominee needs a far right fundamentalist to shore up his base but who will cripple him in the general election. To me its a stop loss measure, as in it puts a floor on a defeat by getting evangelicals to come out on election day. However, this ticket will have little appeal to anyone under 50, Hispancis, or social moderates. In short, the very people who are critical to this election.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Regarding Romney-Santorum, that equals McCain-Palin. A mistrusted nominee needs a far right fundamentalist to shore up his base but who will cripple him in the general election. To me its a stop loss measure, as in it puts a floor on a defeat by getting evangelicals to come out on election day. However, this ticket will have little appeal to anyone under 50, Hispancis, or social moderates. In short, the very people who are critical to this election.

I'll bet rural whites will still turn out in droves for that ticket. Romney is mistrusted but Republicans have the sort of unquestioning zombie love for The Businessman they used to have for The Military Man, and remember once Romney sews up the nomination the entire battery of the right's media empire will turn on a dime and start talking about how Mittens is George Washington with nicer hair.

You're right though that the election is a replay of 2008, Dem vs Dem Hater. We've had 2 straight elections, 3 of 4, and 4 of 6 where one nominee was a zero and the election just came down to whether the other guy had more haters or supporters. In all 4 of those prior cases (Mondale vs Reagan; Dole vs Clinton; Kerry vs Dubya, McCain vs Obama) the zero lost. It's very hard to win a presidential election by just driving negatives while the other guy talks about the Promise of America. Unless something awful happens to the economy the haters are going to lose again.

 

[walrus]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

. Unless something awful happens to the economy the haters are going to lose again.

Price of gas is all it takes for the haters to win

 

[bronconick]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Romney's doubling down on opposing the auto bailout in a Detroit editorial today. He's already down 6 to Santorum in current polls.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Romney's doubling down on opposing the auto bailout in a Detroit editorial today. He's already down 6 to Santorum in current polls.

He decided to use that forum to slam the auto unions. I guess he figures that's smart party politics, but it sure seems like dumb general election politics.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Romney's doubling down on opposing the auto bailout in a Detroit editorial today. He's already down 6 to Santorum in current polls.

So, he's continuing his stance that the bailout was bad and he's doing it in Michigan? Doesn't he need to win Michigan to win the nomination and for that matter the election?

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/...-for-managed-bankruptcy-of-the-auto-industry/

Interesting article. It appears more and more that the central strategy of the GOP is to not give the Obama administration credit for anything. Heck, Hannity even came out a couple of weeks ago and said Obama had nothing to do with getting Osama Bin Laden.

 

[bronconick]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

So, he's continuing his stance that the bailout was bad and he's doing it in Michigan? Doesn't he need to win Michigan to win the nomination and for that matter the election?

It's making me wonder how much of his "business acumen" was nothing but buying bankrupt companies and selling them off. Doesn't seem to be aware of other business depending on the companies. Trashing the auto unions costs you nothing because they're overwhelming Democrat. What did he think was going to happen to the remaining parts manufacturers in business over here on the west side of the state that are a decent part of the business base to the Republican party in Michigan?

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

It's making me wonder how much of his "business acumen" was nothing but buying bankrupt companies and selling them off. Doesn't seem to be aware of other business depending on the companies. Trashing the auto unions costs you nothing because they're overwhelming Democrat. What did he think was going to happen to the remaining parts manufacturers in business over here on the west side of the state that are a decent part of the business base to the Republican party in Michigan?

The theme seems to be that the government needs businesses but businesses doesn't need the government. I find that concept more than laughable.

I see Obama's budget is getting the proper GOP reaction.

Republican Mitt Romney, who is campaigning for the GOP nomination to challenge Obama in the fall, called the budget Obama released Monday "an insult to the American taxpayer."

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/...-for-managed-bankruptcy-of-the-auto-industry/

Interesting article. It appears more and more that the central strategy of the GOP is to not give the Obama administration credit for anything.

Romney was for the bailout before he was against it.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

For all you Mainers out there, I saw an article that the state GOP is being pressured to recalculate the caucus votes, since they excluded a Ron Paul stronghold country from the final tally as well as some other places. This reminds me of something from back in 2004....

On the weekend before the election, I went up to a rally in Manchester, NH because I'd never been to one before. We got there and it was the most disorganized mess you can imagine. They had an event going on behind a large canvas that you could hear but not see, nobody would tell the crowd what was going, it was hours late and some shrill lady would scream at anybody who stood in the wrong place. We left long before it finally got started but I thought to myself if Kerry can't hold a rally 50 miles from his house without screwing up, what's going on in a place like Ohio?

Now, lets look at these primaries. Chaos. Iowa awards a victory, retracts it, says nobody won, then quietly changes the winner. Nevada takes days to count 32,000 votes. Maine is skipping counties where the establishment candidate isn't running well from the final tally. ***? Like it or not, to beat Obama the GOP is going to need to bring its A game. The notion (put forward by pundits like Rothenberg who I think has suffered a brain injury since the last election) that all will be well come general election time is ludicrious. The GOP in terms of organization looks like the Democrats from the early 2000's.