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2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

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Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Bakunin said:
If the stock market is up through the end of May, Obama wins.
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If Occupy Whatever comes back strong after the cold weather passes, that will boost him too, especially if he can get them to occupy a voting booth (pretty easy, that SOTU was basically their entire platform minus the smelly hippies. It made Triforce and Pac-Man references for fark's sake.)

The things I see that could really slay him are if gas prices skyrocket this summer and the Republicans manage to pin the blame on him, the Euro collapses and takes our economy with it, an Occupier does something grievously outrageous like shoot a cop, or he's strong-armed into passing something nutty like SOPA/PIPA and his youth/techie base loses faith in him.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

WeWantMore said:
Rubio has made clear he's not endorsing anyone. He's defended Romney, but hasn't endorsed him.

Romney isn't winning Michigan, but it's not like that's a big strategic loss. It would be gravy, but is hardly essential.

As for Flordia, it has yet to show the antipathy to Mitt that Priceless predicts. Yet, of course, being an important word there.
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If Rubio endorses Romney he's the biggest flip flopper of them all. Including Gingrich. And I thought the Tea Party Platorm was the antithesis of the Flip Flop Platform.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Twitch Boy said:
If Occupy Whatever comes back strong after the cold weather passes, that will boost him too, especially if he can get them to occupy a voting booth (pretty easy, that SOTU was basically their entire platform minus the smelly hippies. It made Triforce and Pac-Man references for fark's sake.)

The things I see that could really slay him are if gas prices skyrocket this summer and the Republicans manage to pin the blame on him, the Euro collapses and takes our economy with it, an Occupier does something grievously outrageous like shoot a cop, or he's strong-armed into passing something nutty like SOPA/PIPA and his youth/techie base loses faith in him.
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Didn't an Occupier take a pot shot at the White House?
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Kepler said:
5 months is a long time in politics.
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4 years ago, many on this board still thought the current Secretary of State would be the Democrat nominee.

And going back a few years, didn't Churchill have high negatives among the party elites prior to May 1940? He had more resurrections than anyone.
 
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Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

A few points:

Rubio: He's already taken himself out of the running for VP, which I didn't get as since there is no "next in line" for the GOP as either Gingrich or Romney, whichever finished with the second most delegates, has run their last race thus setting up the VP nominee for the next election (or to run 8 years if they win). I did see recently FWIW that he has some large personal financial problems however, and in this current climate, it might be tough to run as the "Fixers of the economy" when you yourself are swimming in debt. After watching Palin get picked clean last time around by media buzzards, he may want to take some time to clean up those issues before launching himself on the national stage.

Michigan: Look, Michigan doesn't matter because by the time that state would be called for Romney, he would have already won Ohio and Pennsylvania and the race will be over. Having said that, Michigan is the state that every year is talked about flipping to the GOP, yet its voted Dem consistantly since 1992. Much like talk of Arizona for the Dems, I'll believe it when I see it (although it should be noted Dems have won AZ more recently than GOP winning MI - Clinton in '96).

Obama's chances: What I see as the deciding factor in this election but what is little talked about is generational shift. Millenials who continue to join the pool of voters have little to no memory of Ronald Reagan. In fact you could be born in 1994 and still be eligible to vote in the next election. However, a good many of them have memories of the prosperity of the Clinton years, followed by the doom of the Bush years. Given the unfortunate reality that many a McCain voter is no longer with us, the overriding dynamic of this race with the exception of the economy (and lets assume we're in a slow upward trajectory as we have been for the past 8 months) is whether these people stay home or not. By nominating the uninspiring Romney or downright unlikeable Gingrich, the GOP really needs these voters to not participate or vote Ron Paul. Its one thing for that to happen in a mid term election but something else for a general election.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

joecct said:
Didn't an Occupier take a pot shot at the White House?
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If you watch Fox "News" he did. For those of us who live in a reality-based world, no.

Mr. Ortega is a Mexican-American whose family knows the sound of ethnic slurs and worries mostly about its restaurant business, not politics. People here say that the only thing that could have motivated Mr. Ortega was mental illness — but that they did not realize the severity of it until it was too late.

“I kind of thought we should sit down and talk with him,” said Mr. Ortega’s sister, Yesenia Hernandez, “but then he was already gone.”

The family reported Mr. Ortega missing on Oct. 31, eight days after he left on what he said was a vacation to Utah; instead, it was a trip to the East Coast. His family never heard from him, and still has not.

Family members and others said that while Mr. Ortega was behaving increasingly strangely — he read a 45-minute speech at his 21st birthday party in October that veered from supporting marijuana legalization to detailing the threat of secret societies to expressing frustration with American foreign policy in oil-producing countries — he never seemed violent.

They said that he could not have truly wanted to kill the president, but that he may have wanted a larger audience. He read his speech to anyone who would listen. In September, Mr. Ortega made a video in which he asked Oprah Winfrey to let him appear on television with her.

“You see, Oprah, there is still so much more that God needs me to express to the world,” he says. “It’s not just a coincidence that I look like Jesus. I am the modern-day Jesus Christ that you all have been waiting for.”

--

Jake Chapman is also scheduled to make the trip to Washington. The AK-47 that Mr. Ortega is accused of using to fire on the White House was registered to Mr. Chapman, who said in an interview that he is known to friends as “the gun guy.” He said that he sold the gun to Mr. Ortega in March for $550 and that he believed it was the first gun Mr. Ortega owned.

Mr. Chapman, 21, said he had not heard Mr. Ortega talk of taking violent action. But more than a year ago, he recalled, Mr. Ortega and others watched an antigovernment film on the Internet called “The Obama Deception,” which was written, directed and produced by Alex Jones, a Texas-based conservative talk show host who has espoused a number of conspiracy theories involving the federal government.
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Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Rover said:
What I see as the deciding factor in this election but what is little talked about is generational shift.
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This is a good point. One of the factors leading to the Republican re-emergence in the 1980's and 1990's was the passing away of many people whose basic political identity was loving FDR. There are still Reaganites around but the next twenty years will see them dropping in droves. The Dems have renewed their ranks twice since then, with a Clinton wave and an Obama wave. The Republicans have put forward nothing during that time except for the failed Bush legacy which they won't even mention in their speeches. They are in the same position as Dems were in the 80's, looking backwards to JFK and trying hard to forget Carter. It took them 14 years (1978 - 1992) to recover from that. The GOP is currently in year 6 and still in complete denial. See you in 2020.

BTW, Michigan gets mentioned as forever being about to tip to the GOP because the term "Reagan Democrats" was coined to describe a Michigan constituency.
 
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Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Bakunin said:
If the stock market is up through the end of May, Obama wins.
Click to expand...

Was thinking about this. The markets are what maybe 15% below its all time high...at a healthy level. Frankly from a business standpoint the economy is pretty good. There have been consistent threats since the crisis of a double dip or another recession. Every time the stock markets shrug it off and keep going up...and not without good reason. GDP is up and the economy is slowly beginning to get cooking. There would normally be a threat of a bit of overheating but relatively high unemployment means there's a lot of headroom to go...and the stock market is not likely to get too overheated as Europe continues to temper things. Excepting unemployment (which is a US structural issue), things are looking pretty good for the economy as it continues to roll.

At the end of the day though...its all about the buzz on unemployment that will influence voters minds. And that still has a ways to go.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Ron Paul said:
black teenagers can be "unbelievably fleet of foot."
"If you try to catch someone that has stolen a purse from you, there is no chance to catch them,"
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this isn't news, unless there was still someone around who believed Paul saying he wasn't aware of his own newsletters. What's interesting is not that there was a market for racist material in Texas 30 years ago, but that Barack Obama is now more popular statewide than Rick Perry, according to a headline I saw this morning.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Rover said:
For anybody still carrying some man-love for Ron Paul, check it out:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-502223_162-57367601/sources-paul-signed-off-on-racist-90s-newsletters/

Is publishing racist articles that you don't believe just to make money any less despicable than actual racism?
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It's despicable. Hopefully someone on the Republican side will come along with his foreign policy, but without his baggage.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

ScoobyDoo said:
Sure, cause we all know with all the Reagan talk going on that both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are the second coming.
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Which coming is Santorum?

(rim job, er, shot)
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

5mn_Major said:
Was thinking about this. The markets are what maybe 15% below its all time high...at a healthy level. Frankly from a business standpoint the economy is pretty good. There have been consistent threats since the crisis of a double dip or another recession. Every time the stock markets shrug it off and keep going up...and not without good reason. GDP is up and the economy is slowly beginning to get cooking. There would normally be a threat of a bit of overheating but relatively high unemployment means there's a lot of headroom to go...and the stock market is not likely to get too overheated as Europe continues to temper things. Excepting unemployment (which is a US structural issue), things are looking pretty good for the economy as it continues to roll.

At the end of the day though...its all about the buzz on unemployment that will influence voters minds. And that still has a ways to go.
Click to expand...

As long as you're whistling past a grave yard, may I request "Happy Wanderer?"
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Ron Paul said:
If you have to use a gun on a youth, you should leave the scene immediately, disposing of the wiped off gun as soon as possible.
Click to expand...

Come on, that's just sound legal advice.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

News? What news?

Fox is has moved into full campaigning mode...with its top 'news' headline:

013012_obamadebtceiling2_20120130_134744.jpg


Never mind that saving the country from the worst crisis since the depression is not cheap.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

5mn_Major said:
News? What news?

Fox is has moved into full campaigning mode...with its top 'news' headline:

013012_obamadebtceiling2_20120130_134744.jpg


Never mind that saving the country from the worst crisis since the depression is not cheap.
Click to expand...
They already admitted that what they broadcast isn't news. Hell, they went to court to argue that what they broadcast as "news" doesn't even have to be true. They're not a news network, they're a propaganda machine.
 
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