Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina are all, IMHO, going to fall the other way this time around. Indiana might as well be Kentucky and the other two states will swoon for that accent. I don't get it either, but twangers stick together.
The bigger thing about the next general election is the shoe will be on the other foot re: playing defense on the cruddy economy. If every state swings just 5% from last time, I suspect the GOP would be close to winning back the White House. Add in there's a small EV shift to the GOP states and the possibility that the GOP will be playing EV footsie in states like PA, and Obama's best bet might be a Perry nomination and then some combination of gaffes and extreme policy positions.
Some thoughts:
Indiana: Yes. North Carolina: Yes if Perry is nominee, 50/50 if its Romney. Virginia: 50/50 if its Perry, No if its Romney.
Simply put once this primary is over Romney will have zero appeal down South. Hard core christian conservatives aren't going to vote for him. They'd just as soon stay home. That's not going to matter in Texas and Arkansas, but he can't afford to lose those people in Florida or Virginia. On the flip side, Perry will do very well in those states, but his hard right social conservatism appeals to about 30% of the population which is killer in places like Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, etc.
As an aside, the press and perhaps yourself are getting way too worked up over this Pennsylvania thing. Its one of the stupidest ideas I've seen come down the pike in a long time, and I wouldn't recommend it if the Dems were trying to pull that in a swing state either (Say Virginia or North Carolina for example). Consider this: Any party seeking to win the Presidency has to appeal to the Rust Belt states. Halving their electoral bounty no matter which way the state votes does several things:
1) it screws your nominee if he's doing well there.
2) it makes the state irrelevant to the candidates as no matter what happens the payoff will be winning no more net electoral votes than winning New Hampshire - a far cheaper state to advertise in.
3) it nationalizes not only congressional races, but state house races also. Right now Pennsylvania voters seem comfortable with ticket splitting if they've elected Dems as President the last 5 elections but have voted GOP on occasion statewide. With this plan you force voters to vote one party down the line. Again, do you really want to do that?
4) Voters have a good sense of fairness and will see right through this, especially swing voters.
This whole thing reeks of the Gephardt/Daschle/Kerry/Shrum approach to elections that killed the Dems in the 2000's. Its the notion that to win elections you should cut corners to win the bare minimum of votes to get elected. If I'm the Republicans, my plan is win ALL of Pennsylvania's votes a well as Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, etc. They may not get there, but that's a better goal than transparent electoral shennanigans.