2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

[Bakunin]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Generally speaking, those who bring up grammar instead of the content of a post, are admitting that they have no other way to critique what was said.

What is there to critique? You called a politician's supporters idiots while making yourself look like a colossal one in the process.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

I liked Ron Paul four years ago, but the more I've listened to him lately, the more I realize that his ideas are too far 'out there'. America can't just suddenly declare neutrality, cut ourselves off from the outside world, and return to our pre-WWI foreign policy, which is basically what he supports.

It's true that would be too extreme, but of course it doesn't mean that scaling back gradually from some of our more outlandish commitments isn't a good idea. Klingon Neocon Empire and Switzerland are not the only two options.

Paul is the only GOP candidate who is a traditional conservative on defense, and given the extreme jihadism of the current right that takes political courage.

At the end of the day, the balance sheet dictates that the days of our sprawling military presence in every ocean and on every continent are going to be over soon. The question is whether we manage the withdrawal to a more modest (and less provocative) stance, or whether we collapse uncontrollably (and with much drama) like so many previous overextended empires.

The US can remain a world power, maybe even the most powerful world power, but only if we are no longer the world's policeman. Geography and economy seem to indicate that in a hundred years the global powers will be the Anglosphere (US, UK, Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand), China, India, the Continental EU, and maybe a resurgent Russia or a developed Brazil or Indonesia. We'll still be at or near the top of a multipolar league. But maybe we can help craft a world political system where it's not in the interests of the other power to align against us as too powerful.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_by_country

The US has as many carriers as the rest of the world combined. Last I checked, the Cold War ended twenty years ago, and even if it restarted, Russia isn't exactly sitting flush with aircraft carriers (or anything else for that matter).

To me, the obvious solution would be to cut our carrier force by at least 1/2. If we're worried about "projecting power", we can certainly do a fairly decent job of that with attack submarines at much lower cost. Plus, those boats are far less vulnerable than carriers.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_by_country

The US has as many carriers as the rest of the world combined. Last I checked, the Cold War ended twenty years ago, and even if it restarted, Russia isn't exactly sitting flush with aircraft carriers (or anything else for that matter).

To me, the obvious solution would be to cut our carrier force by at least 1/2. If we're worried about "projecting power", we can certainly do a fairly decent job of that with attack submarines at much lower cost. Plus, those boats are far less vulnerable than carriers.

I read somewhere that in a shooting war every carrier in every engaged navy would be sunk in the first 30 minutes. We always try to refight the last war. Carriers : 2011 :: Battleships : 1941 :: Cavalry : 1914

 

[Foxton]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

What is there to critique? You called a politician's supporters idiots while making yourself look like a colossal one in the process.

I called them idiots because of what bigblue said (which is the usual stuff you hear from Ron Paul supporters.) That you can point out however many faults with the guy you want, it doesn't matter to them. Because he's got the liberty wand and it's going to make everything good.

Whether or not bigblue holds that view or is just being his usual antagonistic self towards me is irrelevant because I don't care about whatever joke you think you made.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

PoliticalProf's summary of last night's debate:

Rick Perry: Texas is good. I like Texas.

Mitt Romney: Seriously, I have a plan. And I used to work in business.

Michele Bachmann: I have crazy eyes.

Ron Paul: I am a very cranky old man.

Jon Huntsman: You get that I’m the reasonable one, right?

Newt Gingrich: I am a lot smarter than these other folks. Not that you care.

Herman Cain: I speak in clear, plain sentences to convince you that the complex is simple.

Rick Santorum: I’m over here. Hi! Hello! Woo hoo!

 

[unofan]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Let's hear it for John Kyl (R.-AZ), who is threatening to take his ball and go home if the super committee pushes for defense cuts. Oh, he also wants to remove the trigger that would automatically cut defense and medicare, too.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63005.html

But again, both sides are bad. Or something...

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Let's hear it for John Kyl (R.-AZ), who is threatening to take his ball and go home if the super committee pushes for defense cuts. Oh, he also wants to remove the trigger that would automatically cut defense and medicare, too.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63005.html

But again, both sides are bad. Or something...

ROTFLMAO.

That's awesome. That's of the "you can't make it up" category. Wow. Congress has only been in session since Tuesday.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

I read somewhere that in a shooting war every carrier in every engaged navy would be sunk in the first 30 minutes. We always try to refight the last war. Carriers : 2011 :: Battleships : 1941 :: Cavalry : 1914

Carriers are extremely useful as long as your adversary is lacking quiet attack subs and/or a capable air force with anti-ship missiles.

The only potential adversaries that have/may develop the capability to sink our carriers would be Russia and China. In the latter case, they don't really have a navy to speak of, so their only option would be to hope they could sneak an aircraft close enough to the carrier strike force to launch their missiles - and even then, there's a possibility that the escort ships and/or the carrier's own close-in defense system could knock the incoming missile out of the sky. Plus I don't believe they have the necessary radar capability to even know where the **** our strike groups might be. They'd have to fly reconnaissance and hope they get lucky and detect them from a distance and don't get shot down by our interceptors in the process. The Russians certainly could do that, but the Chinese? Not likely.

My argument about having too many carriers isn't so much about their vulnerability, it's just the fact that it's overkill. I realize our military wants to have superiority when it comes to ... well, everything - but this superiority is so ridiculous that we could cut the force in half and still have more than twice as many carriers as any other country (and I am going on a hunch here, but I am guessing our carriers >>>> any other country's carriers).

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

I still don't see how The Mittster wrests the nomination from Perry. He's serving up exactly the kind of red meat the base wants. There's no way Romney can out crazy him or run to his right. Its just not in him to do so. That "career politician" schtick won't work. This is a party that's nominated McCain (in office for 22 years prior to nomination), Dole (in office since the dawn of time), Bush I (20 year career in govt) and Reagan (first elected 15 years before nomination). Bush II is the only sorta precedent for him, and few would argue that he was outside of government as the son of a President.

Romney's only prayer is to defeat Perry somewhere down South due to his Ron Paul like comments on something like Social Security (the Florida primary for example). That takes away the inevitability aura that Perry is starting to have right now. Bachmann is on her way to a nice prime time gig on Fox cable in time for the election.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Bachmann is on her way to a nice prime time gig on Fox cable in time for the election.

Preaching to the choir while collecting big paychecks without any accountability whatsoever seems like a better gig than being the actual nominee.

Plus the collective boner for her in derp land would be detectable by alien telescopes light years away from us.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Let's hear it for John Kyl (R.-AZ), who is threatening to take his ball and go home if the super committee pushes for defense cuts. Oh, he also wants to remove the trigger that would automatically cut defense and medicare, too.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63005.html

Is Politico sure that was meant as a factual statement?

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

I read somewhere that in a shooting war every carrier in every engaged navy would be sunk in the first 30 minutes. We always try to refight the last war. Carriers : 2011 :: Battleships : 1941 :: Cavalry : 1914

What's wrong with that analysis (apart from being way too facile) is that in 1941 and 1914 there were other systems already deployed that obsoleted the battleships and cavalry. Outdated British swordfish torpedo planes damaged the German battleship Bismarck so seriously that the rest of the British fleet was able to catch up to her and destroy her. And certainly in 1914 we had internal combustion engines that powered both ground vehicles (tanks) as well as airplanes. That hand writing was on the wall, so to speak. That's not the case with our modern nuclear powered aircraft carriers. There is nothing out there that clearly obsoletes those carriers.

Although on your point I remember the Tom Clancy column from several years ago. The Soviets were deploying a new, capable class of surface ships--the Kirov class. And this was causing considerable heartburn in western military circles. Clancy interviewed a Los Angeles class attack submarine skipper who said when he sees a Kirov class cruiser, he sees a Navy Cross waiting to happen. Think of Bart Mancuso in "Hunt for Red October."

 

[bueller]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

The only potential adversaries that have/may develop the capability to sink our carriers would be Russia and China. In the latter case, they don't really have a navy to speak of, so their only option would be to hope they could sneak an aircraft close enough to the carrier strike force to launch their missiles - and even then, there's a possibility that the escort ships and/or the carrier's own close-in defense system could knock the incoming missile out of the sky. Plus I don't believe they have the necessary radar capability to even know where the **** our strike groups might be. They'd have to fly reconnaissance and hope they get lucky and detect them from a distance and don't get shot down by our interceptors in the process.

I'm no expert and probably in over my head, but didn't you just describe Midway?

 

[bronconick]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

There's been a bunch of news stories over the last year or two about China's development of ballistic missiles that can sink a carrier.

The Defense Department's latest annual report to Congress on China's military and security developments, made public in August, said China is developing anti-ship ballistic missiles with a range of more than 900 miles that work with over-the-horizon radar and satellite targeting systems that could attack aircraft carriers and other ships.

But Willard said the missile system has now undergone "extensive testing," and while more testing will continue, it can be considered operational.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

There's been a bunch of news stories over the last year or two about China's development of ballistic missiles that can sink a carrier.

In which case it again comes down to whether our ships' defensive capabilities would be able to shoot them down, not to mention China's ability (or lack thereof) to find our carrier group(s) in the first place. It remains unlikely we'll ever have a conflict with them given the massive amount of trade that occurs between the two countries (plus they have roughly $2T parked in our treasuries - if the two countries go to war, they aren't getting a dime of that back).

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

The balance will gradually tip so that China isn't so far behind us and may at some point actually catch up with us. They are putting a good chunk of money into developing a navy of some significance, though not likely to rival ours in the foreseeable future. But, if we were ever to get in a fight with them, it'd likely be in/near their turf (Taiwan for example), given them some significant homefield advantages. The ability for us to clearly and effectively defend Taiwan will inevitably erode over time unless China somehow has a major economic/political meltdown.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

In which case it again comes down to whether our ships' defensive capabilities would be able to shoot them down, not to mention China's ability (or lack thereof) to find our carrier group(s) in the first place. It remains unlikely we'll ever have a conflict with them given the massive amount of trade that occurs between the two countries (plus they have roughly $2T parked in our treasuries - if the two countries go to war, they aren't getting a dime of that back).

Carriers don't have any defense that is effective against shore-launched ballistic missiles (Mach 12+ at impact). The NMD system in Alaska is designed to protect US territory against launches from Russia and China, but would do nothing to protect a carrier group in the South China Sea.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

China is trillions of dollars in military spending away from being on par with the US technologically, and once they get to that point, they will suffer the same problems that we are suffering: insane cost overruns to build their planes et al, and very costly maintenance to keep the high tech gizmos working.

Lynah, what about the AEGIS system? Isn't that designed to protect against such things? Or does that only work against non-ballistic missiles?

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

I'm no expert and probably in over my head, but didn't you just describe Midway?

Not really. Unlike Midway, we would never leave one of our carriers undefended the way the Japanese did. We would always have air assets in the air, to "sanitize" the airspace surrounding the carrier. Plus, our carriers are always escorted by vessels whose purpose it is to protect them. Equipped with the AEGIS system, those ships are capable of detecting and attacking 100 targets simultaneously. Our carriers also sail with nuclear submarine escort to provide additional protection from underwater attack. As to this Chinese "anti carrier" missile, I should think the greater threat would come from a system we didn't know anything about, rather than one whose development we're following. We learn the capabilities of this system and figure out a way to neutralize it.