2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

No, no, no. This has all the makings of a National Derp Off. Gotta keep it going deep into the primaries for the pure comedic value.

No, the fun starts when Michele Bachmann pushes Romney out of the race. All she needs is Perry and Palin to stay out and so far so good.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

No, the fun starts when Michele Bachmann pushes Romney out of the race. All she needs is Perry and Palin to stay out and so far so good.

You have creepy fantasies.

Bachmann can't push Romney out, they're opposites. Pawlenty and Romney are competing in one semifinal. Bachmann and Palin are competing in the other. If it looks like the TPaw-Romney winner will lose the final, Perry will waltz in and steal the nomination.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

You have creepy fantasies.

Bachmann can't push Romney out, they're opposites. Pawlenty and Romney are competing in one semifinal. Bachmann and Palin are competing in the other. If it looks like the TPaw-Romney winner will lose the final, Perry will waltz in and steal the nomination.

She can when she takes second in New Hampshire and slaughters him in Iowa and South Carolina. I'm betting without Perry and Palin she can wrap it up by then and he'll bow out.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

She can when she takes second in New Hampshire and slaughters him in Iowa and South Carolina.

Primary momentum is only as strong as The Money. I don't think the donors are going to line up behind Bachmann. There are a few nutbars like the Kochs, but in the main we're talking about cool-headed cynics who would just as soon give Obama his $1B, ensure split government for another few years, and clean up in the absence of real oversight or regulation.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Primary momentum is only as strong as The Money. I don't think the donors are going to line up behind Bachmann. There are a few nutbars like the Kochs, but in the main we're talking about cool-headed cynics who would just as soon give Obama his $1B, ensure split government for another few years, and clean up in the absence of real oversight or regulation.

One of her strengths is raising money. You're underestimating her, and the disdain the Republican party has for Romney. As long as her only conservative competition is Santorum she's got a clear field.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

One of her strengths is raising money. You're underestimating her, and the disdain the Republican party has for Romney.

Have you got numbers to back that up? I have... well, I have Daily India. But it was the only data on fundraising I could find.

At this point:

Obama: $60-80M
Romney: $18M
All Other Republicans Combined: $17M

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Have you got numbers to back that up? I have... well, I have Daily India. But it was the only data on fundraising I could find.

At this point:

Obama: $60-80M
Romney: $18M
All Other Republicans Combined: $17M

We'll find out in four days.

The only other major candidate who has not reported fundraising totals is Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.). Bachmann shined in a New Hampshire presidential debate last month and was in a statistical dead heat with Romney in a recent Des Moines Register poll in Iowa — two development that should have helped her raise major money.

The Bachmann campaign says she will not announce her fundraising totals until July 15, the day the reports of contributions and expenditures over the last three months are due at the Federal Election Commission.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-1825-million/2011/07/05/gIQAw4RzzH_blog.html

She won the first quarter.

The first quarter of 2011 has concluded and the top Republican fundraiser these first 3 months of the year was Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann.

http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2011/04/bachman-tops-gop-fundraising-in-first-quarter/

 

[unofan]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Primary momentum is only as strong as The Money.

Iowa is hers barring a catastrophe, and I think she's definitely the favorite in South Carolina at this point. If she were to somehow win NH, then the race is over before it ever starts.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Iowa is hers barring a catastrophe, and I think she's definitely the favorite in South Carolina at this point. If she were to somehow win NH, then the race is over before it ever starts.

But why? IA, SC and NH together are probably about 3% of the total delegates the Republican nominee would need. I think if Bachmann won all three of those states, what it would indicate is how irrelevant early / small states have become to nominations. Ten million pundits repeating the same conventional wisdom doesn't make it any less empty.

Early, trivial results drive large contributions and thus later results only in a field where they are few discriminators (all the candidates are essentially the same). This year's GOP field is weird in that there are several really off the rails candidates -- Paul, Santorum and Bachmann are boutique candidates like Jesse Jackson and Dennis Kucinich were in prior years. The only boutique candidates to ever win a nomination were Goldwater (before primaries had become powerful) and McGovern (just on the cusp of the Great Stupification of American Politics). It's possible, but highly unlikely.

 

[unofan]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

But why? IA, SC and NH together are probably about 3% of the total delegates the Republican nominee would need.

But all 3 represent different wings. Iowa is the really, really religious right + farming; New Hampshire is the New England libertarian wing, and South Carolina is the Southern wing. All you're really missing is some representative of the "lone gunman mountain man" from west of the Rockies, but if you lock up the first three groups, you don't really need the fourth, anyway.

While the individual states are tiny, the fact is that they can show how various ideaologies within the proverbial "big tent" will vote. The Republicans from Steve King's district are not markedly different from those in Nebraska, Kansas, or the Dakotas. Someone who can win over New Hampshire will likely do the same in Maine, Mass., and whatever remnants of the GOP remain in Vermont.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

But why? IA, SC and NH together are probably about 3% of the total delegates the Republican nominee would need. I think if Bachmann won all three of those states, what it would indicate is how irrelevant early / small states have become to nominations. Ten million pundits repeating the same conventional wisdom doesn't make it any less empty.

Early, trivial results drive large contributions and thus later results only in a field where they are few discriminators (all the candidates are essentially the same). This year's GOP field is weird in that there are several really off the rails candidates -- Paul, Santorum and Bachmann are boutique candidates like Jesse Jackson and Dennis Kucinich were in prior years. The only boutique candidates to ever win a nomination were Goldwater (before primaries had become powerful) and McGovern (just on the cusp of the Great Stupification of American Politics). It's possible, but highly unlikely.

This is a different atmosphere and a different electorate. Just like in '08 with the Democrats the Republicans will throw the rulebook out the window. Bank on it.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

unofan, I suspect you're missing the Country Club Conservatives that loathe the TPers, like Fairfax County VA, Orange County CA, Nassau County NY, and Anywhere White, CT. That's where the money comes from, and it's where the purple appeal is. Without them, not only do you not raise any money, but you lose all those marginal states you need to flip to have a shot in the general.

We'll see. It's certainly true that a candidate who sweeps those three regions will have a stranglehold on Hate Radio, and that probably counts for something.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

If it was any other candidate I would say she has no shot, but everyone knows the GOP does not want Romney going for the presidency. He has too much baggage, the Tpers hate him and plus he is not a god fearing christian. He would not even be in the Top 5 of a decent field. Christ he couldnt beat out a batchit crazy McCain in the last election and John by then was unelectable.

Just keep doubting Bachmann...she will laugh herself into the nomination while the Kos and the Dems are banking on Mitt or Perry. I dont know why but the dumber she acts and the more mistakes she makes the more popular she is...and unlike Palin who was a nothing and couldnt win an argument with her reflection Bachmann knows the talking points, she knows what to say to who and when. If she gets an early bump in the primaries she will walk away with the nomination.

Read the article about her in Rolling Stone from last month...Taibbi nails it perfectly.

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

If it was any other candidate I would say she has no shot, but everyone knows the GOP does not want Romney going for the presidency. He has too much baggage, the Tpers hate him and plus he is not a god fearing christian. He would not even be in the Top 5 of a decent field. Christ he couldnt beat out a batchit crazy McCain in the last election and John by then was unelectable.

Just keep doubting Bachmann...she will laugh herself into the nomination while the Kos and the Dems are banking on Mitt or Perry. I dont know why but the dumber she acts and the more mistakes she makes the more popular she is...and unlike Palin who was a nothing and couldnt win an argument with her reflection Bachmann knows the talking points, she knows what to say to who and when. If she gets an early bump in the primaries she will walk away with the nomination.

Read the article about her in Rolling Stone from last month...Taibbi nails it perfectly.

Comparing Palin and Bachmann, I get the impression that Palin is simply a bumbling idiot where everything with Bachmann is calculated. Yes, she says stupid stuff, but for some reason it seems like she knows she is saying something dumb, because she knows that the benefits outweigh the risks in saying it. Right now she knows that if she wants the nomination, this bat**** crazy stuff is what will get her there.

 

[Foxton]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Right now she knows that if she wants the nomination, this bat**** crazy stuff is what will get her there.

Such a sad state of affairs.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

I dont know why but the dumber she acts and the more mistakes she makes the more popular she is

You don't know why? Have you followed conservative politics since Dan Quayle?

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

If you think it is just conservatives you have your head in the sand even more than I thought. She isnt just winning over the 28%ers.

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Is this a brief episode of semi-sanity from a politician?

http://www.startribune.com/politics/blogs/125501843.html

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Is this a brief episode of semi-sanity from a politician?

http://www.startribune.com/politics/blogs/125501843.html

It was a political calculation. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[Foxton]

Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Hey Boner, where are all the jobs since we had to have those tax cuts extended? Exactly what bull**** reasoning are you working off?

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