2012 Elections in 3-D!

[geezer]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

"Widows"? Was that just a really fortunate typo?

never mind - just general confusion. I don't even know what we're discussing any more.
How about those Bears?

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Huh, I haven't seen anything that actually made this sound like bad news for the Dems, not so much because Kerrey is a powerhouse, but because there was no other Dem candidate with a hope in Hades.

The prairie is getting a lot like the south for Dems, and the northeast for Repubs: nobody in the pipeline. This is another bad consequence of the alignment of ideology and regional tribalism: the polarization is self-reinforcing. It used to be that a strong up and coming pol with no ideological convictions would look at the field above him and pick the party that was thinned out. Now that everything is being cast as angels and demons, you don't see that as much. Hopefully the social issues fart bubble will burst and it will start to happen again.

Don't get me wrong, this is a good thing for the Dems. All I'm saying is whether he gets over the top or not is going to depend significantly on his opponent. It would be tough for him to beat a real popular GOP candidate.

Dems have gotten a few breaks in this cycle. I'd rate the Kerrey bid after the Snowe retirement and the idiotic decision by the GOP Senate to block Warren's appointment. People don't seem to realize how much trouble Brownie is in here in Massachusetts. I know polls have fluctuated but come election time he's going to need a huge crossover vote from Obama to him to keep his seat. When Obama wins with 60% of the vote, that means 10% of that total 60% has to vote for him (and he can't lose anybody who's voting for say Romney). That's a lot to ask. I picture him in a situation like Weld vs Kerry in '96. People really liked Weld, but what doomed him was the idea that he'd be carrying the water for Bob Dole in the Senate. Similarly, Brown is going to get linked with the far more odious Mitch McConnell and has the voting record that backs that charge up.

I suppose also on the list of breaks would be the ex-Sen Allen trying to get his seat back in VA. I'm a bit surprised the state GOP didn't offer him a clear shot at governor next time around in exchange for sitting this one out.

 

[pirate]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Guess that kills Emily Cain's bid for the House and opens the door for Chellie Pingree to be the next senator. It also means his seat should be relatively safe, while a Democrat is almost guaranteed to win her seat in CD-1. Now if we can just get rid of Collins...

Angus King, Independent, for Senate.

Last I heard he was at least thinking about it.

I was fortunate to have met Snowe on a few occasions and found her to be one of the more genuine politicians I've met. I respect her decision to change although the timing is unfortunate...not sure it helps the cause if the next senator is the person with the best political machine vs. most qualified.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Don't get me wrong, this is a good thing for the Dems. All I'm saying is whether he gets over the top or not is going to depend significantly on his opponent. It would be tough for him to beat a real popular GOP candidate.

Dems have gotten a few breaks in this cycle. I'd rate the Kerrey bid after the Snowe retirement and the idiotic decision by the GOP Senate to block Warren's appointment. People don't seem to realize how much trouble Brownie is in here in Massachusetts. I know polls have fluctuated but come election time he's going to need a huge crossover vote from Obama to him to keep his seat. When Obama wins with 60% of the vote, that means 10% of that total 60% has to vote for him (and he can't lose anybody who's voting for say Romney). That's a lot to ask. I picture him in a situation like Weld vs Kerry in '96. People really liked Weld, but what doomed him was the idea that he'd be carrying the water for Bob Dole in the Senate. Similarly, Brown is going to get linked with the far more odious Mitch McConnell and has the voting record that backs that charge up.

I suppose also on the list of breaks would be the ex-Sen Allen trying to get his seat back in VA. I'm a bit surprised the state GOP didn't offer him a clear shot at governor next time around in exchange for sitting this one out.

Good points all the way through.

The Dems have lucked into this position, true, but now if they have tidal pressure from a growing economy they can really start pounding home the message that the country needs to break the deadlock in Congress by expelling the TPers and replacing them either with Dems or at least rational Republicans willing to make deals. The number of seats they have to defend is still a killer, but I did not expect NE, ME, and VA to be on the board (I did assume MA would flip, particularly since the GOP hates Senator Underpants even more than the Dems do).

If the Dems did somehow manage to hold serve in the Senate and pick up the House, that would be an incredible turnaround. In a lot of ways, though, this election is not as much about the D/R split as about the composition within the R's between the Know Nothings and the rest.

 

[AMC]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

I listen to Emily Cain on the radio all the time, she doesn't impress me. She is a hockey fan and the sings the Anthem at Alfond once and awhile so she has that going for her.
I hear Bruce on the radio some also, seems smart but talks to fast for me

So it's looking like the real candidates for Senate will be Chellie Pingree v. Baldacci for the Democrats, and still who knows on the Republican side. Pingree should waltz through the primary. I like her more than Michaud, but I am not really representative of your standard CD2 voter. She could have some trouble in the general, especially if King jumps in. (Angus might actually be a favorite, it would be interesting to hear who he would caucus with). Charlie Webster is making noise that if King is in, the Republicans should run someone that would "differentiate" him/herself from King. I think that means, tack to the right. In other words, hope to win that 39-33-26 three way race like LePage did, with King grabbing the middle and Pingree the left.

CD2 goes back to its Michaud vs. Raye battle, I think Michaud has to be a moderate favorite there.

CD1 will be decided in the Democratic primary. No official word that Hannah Pingree is in, but if she does jump in she should be a shoo-in.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

The maximum contribution allowable by law is $2500 per election. You can use Paypal to send me your contribution and I'll consider running.

Why would I pay you to run?

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Why would I pay you to run?

He would probably have to stop posting here...

 

[walrus]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

So it's looking like the real candidates for Senate will be Chellie Pingree v. Baldacci for the Democrats, and still who knows on the Republican side. Pingree should waltz through the primary. I like her more than Michaud, but I am not really representative of your standard CD2 voter. She could have some trouble in the general, especially if King jumps in. (Angus might actually be a favorite, it would be interesting to hear who he would caucus with). Charlie Webster is making noise that if King is in, the Republicans should run someone that would "differentiate" him/herself from King. I think that means, tack to the right. In other words, hope to win that 39-33-26 three way race like LePage did, with King grabbing the middle and Pingree the left.

CD2 goes back to its Michaud vs. Raye battle, I think Michaud has to be a moderate favorite there.

CD1 will be decided in the Democratic primary. No official word that Hannah Pingree is in, but if she does jump in she should be a shoo-in.

REally Hannah Pingree? What the heck is with voters love for trust fund babies anyway?

As long as Chellie loses and is gone form Maine politics I'll be happy. I'm kind of shocked Michaud pulled out, I could vote for him, especially if the repubs put in a tea party joker. Angus King, I don't know, I'd have to hear what he says, same with Cutler. Baldy can kiss my ***

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

He would probably have to stop posting here...

Now there's a return on investment!

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

One more thought on the Senate. Before the Snowe announcement it was easy to see a situation where Obama gets re-elected but still loses the Senate with ND, NE, MT, & MO going heavily against him and the Dems running there while Brown hangs on in MA. Now though I think control of the Senate is strongly correlated with Obama winning or losing the election. If he wins, I find it likely he pulls the seats in WI, NV, MA, and FL with him. If he loses you could be looking at VA, WI, FL, NV going GOP which would net at least 6 seats (ND, NE, MT, MO, VA, FL, WI minus ME and possibly MA as Obama should win both those regardless).

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

One more thought on the Senate. Before the Snowe announcement it was easy to see a situation where Obama gets re-elected but still loses the Senate with ND, NE, MT, & MO going heavily against him and the Dems running there while Brown hangs on in MA. Now though I think control of the Senate is strongly correlated with Obama winning or losing the election. If he wins, I find it likely he pulls the seats in WI, NV, MA, and FL with him. If he loses you could be looking at VA, WI, FL, NV going GOP which would net at least 6 seats (ND, NE, MT, MO, VA, FL, WI minus ME and possibly MA as Obama should win both those regardless).

That will depend on whether Obama really has "coattails," or maybe more correctly whether the GOP nominee is such a dud that the Republicans have down-ticket problems. The Clintonistas were always accused of playing the angles for their own re-election and failing to consider party issues. In contrast, Republican incumbents have tended to be very good about accommodating state party strategies most of the time (the place they failed miserably was the northeast, which is how it became such a wasteland for them). We'll see whether Obama can figure out how to improve his own chances and also bring along some marginal Dems.

 

[AMC]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

REally Hannah Pingree? What the heck is with voters love for trust fund babies anyway?

As long as Chellie loses and is gone form Maine politics I'll be happy. I'm kind of shocked Michaud pulled out, I could vote for him, especially if the repubs put in a tea party joker. Angus King, I don't know, I'd have to hear what he says, same with Cutler. Baldy can kiss my ***

Hannah will be walking into that primary with the biggest name, unless someone surprising gets involved. And I think you will agree that the winner of the Democratic primary would have to commit a murder between then and the general election to lose CD1. Even then, as long as it wasn't a child murder, I think the Republican still loses that election.

I think if the independents stay out, Chellie wins that general election.

 

[walrus]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Hannah will be walking into that primary with the biggest name,.

Probably true but hardly a reason for joe blow to vote for her but..

Chellie has an edge for sure

Both have Mega bucks

Without knowing has Hannah ever had a private sector job? I'd guess not

 

[AMC]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Probably true but hardly a reason for joe blow to vote for her but..

Chellie has an edge for sure

Both have Mega bucks

Without knowing has Hannah ever had a private sector job? I'd guess not

You just need name recognition to win a primary- look at Libby Mitchell. There were any number of Dems in that primary who were better candidates, but everyone knew who Libby was. As soon as you win the Democratic Primary in CD1, you're the winner. The Republican who would win in that district would make Olympia look like an archconservative.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

(For the record, I understand he had a bad heart but) There's enough weirdness about Breitbart's death to keep conspiracy theorists busy for years. Here's the latest coincidence to emerge. It also doesn't help that a bomb squad was called to Rush Limbaugh's house later that same day to check out a suspicious delivery (As far as I know, it just turned out to be his March drop of oxycontin).
You could feel Matt Drudge sweating bullets when he posted that story.

Nutbar Central seems to be all atwitter.

I'm sure by next week it will be common knowledge among the righties that Michelle Obama murdered Breitbart because he had discovered startling new revelations about Vince Foster.

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

You just need name recognition to win a primary- look at Libby Mitchell.

Linda (LL) Bean begs to differ.

Not that name recognition is a bad thing, by any means...

 

[French Rage]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Nutbar Central seems to be all atwitter.

I'm sure by next week it will be common knowledge among the righties that Michelle Obama murdered Breitbart because he had discovered startling new revelations about Vince Foster.

Oooh, can they release a double feature of this college footage and Michelle's whitey rant. They can sell it for the price that she spent on room service that one time.

 

[joecct]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Interesting article in this afternoon's WaPo on health care costs. http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...cing/2012/02/28/gIQAtbhimR_story.html?hpid=z2

Think they'll do anything about it? Unless we fly to India for our surgeries (which I understand is a burgeoning business), forget about it.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

The GOP field starts to take shape

Maine Secretary of State Charles Summers, State Treasurer Bruce Poliquin and ex-Maine Senate President Rick Bennett each took out papers early Friday afternoon, said Megan Sanborn, a spokeswoman for the secretary of state's office.

Assistant Maine Senate Majority Leader Deb Plowman, another Republican, said Friday she is also thinking about jumping into the race.

Plowman had already taken out papers to run against U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud, D-Maine, in the 2nd District. But she appears to be reconsidering after Maine Senate President Kevin Raye opted against a Senate run to also try to win the 2nd District.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Interesting article in this afternoon's WaPo on health care costs. http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...cing/2012/02/28/gIQAtbhimR_story.html?hpid=z2

Think they'll do anything about it? Unless we fly to India for our surgeries (which I understand is a burgeoning business), forget about it.

Who is "they"? The way the other countries hold health care prices down is they are set by, or at least overseen by, the government. We can't do that here because OMGTEHSOCIALISM!!!!11!!!1!

Now if "they" means "we," and voters work together to regulate the HC industry, then, yeah, we'll do something about it. But at the moment the people in control of the narrative aint exactly letting that message get out.