2009-2010 Polls thread

[oldfan]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

The only sweeps all year have been over Minnesota on Halloween Weekend and Minnesota State to round out the first half. They split with RMU and went 2-2 on the year with North Dakota who each have only five wins all season.

They played hard this past weekend against UMD but once again the small mistakes were magnified in the end results. Injuries on almost a weekly basis have really killed any attempts at building momentum from the constant change in lines due to a player or more change to the lineup nearly every game.

In addition to injuries, any insight why Ms. Windmeirer (sp) is no longer on team? Seems like a real loss to lose a veteran D like her.

 

[Bergey1]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

You would expect Hockey East to do better against Harvard in the Beanpot, though they won't be facing the goalie that shut out Minnesota twice.

I totally agree. But I was gonna counter with the old "one player does not make a team" and goalies don't score goals etc, but then I remembered that NU gets outshot pretty much every game and someone would have pointed it out. But hey, it might prove that an HEA team is deeper than the Harvard team. I do think it will be a much more competitive Beanpot however, which could make for interesting shakeups in the polls/RPI/Pairwise etc.

 

[freak]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Despite going 1 - 2 - 1 (all HE action) since the New Year, UNH hangs tough in the fourth spot, a testament, I would say, to the strength of Hockey East, who for the second week on a row has four teams in the top 10

Not so much in the Rutter. Still at #4 in the PWR. The girls need to get on a roll and finish strong to ensure home ice in the quarters.

 

[IceIsNice]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

USA Today Poll

USA TODAY/USA Hockey women's poll
Jan. 26, 2010

Rank School (first-place votes) Record Points Last week
1 Mercyhurst (19) 19-1-3 190 1
2 Minnesota 19-3-4 171 2
3 Clarkson 17-5-3 149 3
4 Minnesota Duluth 17-7-2 125 5
5 New Hampshire 13-4-5 122 4
6 Northeastern 16-5-3 91 7
7 Harvard 10-5-4 65 6
8 Connecticut 15-6-5 48 8
9 Providence 120-7-8 44 T-9
10 Wisconsin 14-9-3 31 T-9

Others receiving votes: Cornell University, 8; Quinnipiac University, 1.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

I totally agree. But I was gonna counter with the old "one player does not make a team" and goalies don't score goals etc, but then I remembered that NU gets outshot pretty much every game and someone would have pointed it out. But hey, it might prove that an HEA team is deeper than the Harvard team. I do think it will be a much more competitive Beanpot however, which could make for interesting shakeups in the polls/RPI/Pairwise etc.

I agree, and I'm not saying anyone is a clear favorite, but it's pretty much impossible to lose one of the nation's best goalies and not have it affect your time. Does that mean NU is deeper than Harvard? Certainly at goalie right now. I'm not sure what that says about the teams or leagues in general.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

I looked at the aggregate records of the 4 conferences, minus games against teams like Sacred Heart and St. Anselm's which show up in the team's record but don't shed any light on strength of conference comparisons, and HEA did the best with a +11. The WCHA is second with a +7, the CHA is +1, and all of those games over .500 had to come at someone's expense, so the ECAC is -19. One theory would then be that this is a down year in the ECAC, Hockey East and ECAC play each other a lot, so HEA benefits. But it does look like this might be the deepest HEA in a while, though that could potentially result in none of them hosting an NCAA quarter.

Right, but the question is about the ceiling of the best teams. You can argue that Providence beat Cornell who beat Harvard who beat Minnesota, so they're right up there, but the direct evidence that Hockey East teams can match up with the best is thin now. Clarkson and Harvard had better nonconference results than anyone else in the East, but I agree the rest of the league has struggled.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Right, but the question is about the ceiling of the best teams.

That's usually a difficult question to answer, even after the season is over. I guess my conclusion is that in several of the recent years, Hockey East has been the weakest of the 8-or-more-team conferences; that would not appear to be the case this year when viewing a league from top to bottom. And as always, there just aren't enough games to make a definitive case one way or another.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Well, here's a conference comparison based on Rutter rank, I suppose there's a good case HE is stronger top-to-bottom, though I do feel Cornell at 12 is the one team that's most underrated and was hurt the most by national team interruptions, and the conferences are pretty even at the top.

Yale 27, Brown 32, Union 33 < Vermont 30, Maine 31 (30.7 vs. 30.5)
RPI 21, Dartmouth 24, Colgate 25 << BU 16 BC 23 (23.3 vs. 19.5)
Princeton 20, Quinnipiac 17, SLU 13 <<< UConn 9 Providence 10 (16.7 vs. 9.5)
Cornell 12, Harvard 6, Clarkson 4 < UNH 5, Northeastern 7 (7.3 vs. 6)

 

[CrazyDave]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Time to stir up the pot a little...

So, now that Mercyhurst has suffered their 2nd loss of the season, are there any opinions about what the polls will look like on Monday and Tuesday? Mercyhurst is still #1 in four mathematical rankings: the Pairwise and RPI, the KRACH, and the Rutter.

 

[MICZamboni]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Time to stir up the pot a little...

So, now that Mercyhurst has suffered their 2nd loss of the season, are there any opinions about what the polls will look like on Monday and Tuesday? Mercyhurst is still #1 in four mathematical rankings: the Pairwise and RPI, the KRACH, and the Rutter.

Honestly doesn't matter to me. 1 or 2 means little to nothing. I am just glad they lost now instead of later.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

So, now that Mercyhurst has suffered their 2nd loss of the season, are there any opinions about what the polls will look like on Monday and Tuesday?

I think Mercyhurst stays #1. The Gophers might get 2 or 3 first-place votes, but I don't see them getting a majority.

 

[IceIsNice]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

My two cents.... I bet the Gophers grab more like 6 or 7 first place votes, but just not quite enough to capture the #1 ranking. I gave the Purps kudos the last time I saw them play, and they earned it yet again. A Laker-Purp CHA final would be a real treat if they both should get there.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

I think it'll be close who is No. 1. I have no idea. You may well have the two polls get different outcomes. I know it's not important, but if we had to pick a college hockey national champion today based on current results like they sadly have to do in football, this is what I'd say. (if you don't care, don't read on, I enjoy this analysis, you don't have to agree)

I think you could make a pretty good case either way. Minnesota has been better against common opponents, Clarkson and UMD, and then Minnesota had some ties against Bemidji (who Mercyhurst swept), and Mercyhurst drew St. Cloud who Minnesota has swept.

If you compare their results against non-common opponents, it's no longer so clear cut. The bad for Mercyhurst is their 2-1-1 against Niagara, and their most impressive other results are sweeping @Cornell and @SLU. The bad for Minnesota is the 0-2 @ Wisconsin and 0-1-1 @ Harvard, and the most impressive other results are probably sweeping OSU and St. Cloud. The computers clearly like Mercyhurst's "non-common" opponents better, esp. since Wisconsin has been mediocre.

Also it's worth noting that Minnesota's been noticeably weaker on the road. They're winless in their last 6 (0-3-3) against teams with RPI > .500 on the road (3-3-3) overall. Mercyhurst generally has some nice road results, but didn't play quite the same level of competition on the road as Minnesota did (where Minnesota lost). Both teams had their toughest opponents at home (UMD & Clarkson), and Minnesota went 4-0 those games while Mercyhurst went 2-1-1.

If you value recent history (i.e. who has fewer blemishes last month), edge to Minnesota.

If I had to pick one now, I'd say Minnesota. I think the results against UMD & Clarkson stand out amidst other factors. I think Mercyhurst would have more road losses had they played as tough a road schedule as Minnesota. Now that Mercyhurst has lost to Niagara, a worse loss than any of Minnesota's, I don't think you can make the case any more that Mercyhurst clearly has had the better season to date. I do have doubts as to whether Minnesota can beat anyone good on the road going forward, however.

As to my more detailed prediction of what the polls will do, obviously most voters won't do the whole analysis I just gave above. I think Niagara will be viewed as more of a bad loss than any of the Gophers' losses, and that'll weight Mercyhurst down more, plus voters tend to give a lot of weight to most recent weekend's results. On a week where one team goes 1-1 with an unranked loss, and the team below them in the last poll, goes 2-0, it's pretty typical to see the team that went 1-1 get passed, unless there's a huge gap in their records.

I'd probably bet on Minnesota taking No. 1 to, though I think some voters do put some stock into mimicking what the pairwise and RPI say, where Mercyhurst still has the lead. I expect Mercyhurst to do better in the USCHO poll than the other poll for that reason.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

As to my more detailed prediction of what the polls will do, obviously most voters won't do the whole analysis I just gave above.

In polls when it comes down to two candidates for a given ranking, who knows what method an individual voter prefers. They might use something like the hypothetical question, "if the two teams met on neutral ice, who do you think would win?" In that scenario, if one likes offense, offense, and more offense, then you're obviously going to pick the Lakers. Similarly, Minnesota has had the better defensive numbers.

In any case, I think this is only going to be a question for one week. Nobody has ever swept a UMD/Minnesota season series before, and I don't see that changing this year.

 

[MICZamboni]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Mercyhurst pretty much dominated play for two days but ran into a very good goalie. You can't take anything away from Pattendon from Mercyhurst as she was good as well. Any great chance Niagara had, she stopped most of them. Mercyhurst showed why they are number 1 in every aspect except the stat that means the most, the scoreboard. Either way, it doesn't matter much anyway. Let the chips fall where they may. They will have to win the games in the NCAA's.
Good luck Lakers!!

 

[fanfair]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

2 goals on 15 shots? Mercyhurst pressured in the third however a few players playing like individuals didn't help the cause. Niagara stayed on their game and full credit to coach MacKenzie for 1-2-1 record against a team that has dominated the #1 spot all season. Besides its the shots that GO IN the net that count.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Mercyhurst pretty much dominated play for two days but ran into a very good goalie.

This isn't some fluke occurrence, however. The two teams have met 4 times on the season, and MC has scored 2 goals or less in all of them. Given the Lakers have scored a minimum of 3 goals in every other game except one early 1-0 win over RPI, Niagara clearly has implemented a very effective game plan against MC to give the Purp's a chance.

 

[fanfair]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Yes and both 2-0 games wre empty netters at the end if I recall.

 

[fanfair]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Out of curiosity, can someone explain why HArvard is so high in the rankings?

 

[Bergey1]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Back to back shutouts vs Minnesota is a start.