2009-2010 Polls thread

[IceIsNice]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Out of curiosity, can someone explain why HArvard is so high in the rankings?

You see, at the start of each season, pollsters are selected to participate in the weekly poll. Every week, they evaluate the results from the previous week's games, and vote for how they the think the top 10 should look. The results of all the pollsters are then averaged to determine the overall rank. Ergo, Harvard is ranked where they are by virtue of having received a sufficient number of highly ranked votes from the pollsters to average out to where they are at. That's why!

 

[MICZamboni]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

This isn't some fluke occurrence, however. The two teams have met 4 times on the season, and MC has scored 2 goals or less in all of them. Given the Lakers have scored a minimum of 3 goals in every other game except one early 1-0 win over RPI, Niagara clearly has implemented a very effective game plan against MC to give the Purp's a chance.

Definately no fluke. Bauer is good.

As for fanfare, yes 2 goals on 15 shots. That doesn't mean she didn't play well. Niagara's first goal on Saturday was the result of the shot deflecting in of off a stick I believe.
I take nothing away from Niagara, they step up to the plate when it comes to Mercyhurst.

 

[IceIsNice]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

USCHO Poll

Team (First Place Votes) Record Points Last Poll
1 Minnesota (10) 21-3-4 145 2
2 Mercyhurst ( 5) 20-2-3 140 1
3 Clarkson 19-5-3 119 3
4 New Hampshire 15-4-5 100 4
5 Minnesota-Duluth 19-7-2 94 5
6 Harvard 12-5-4 69 7
7 Northeastern 16-5-4 63 6
8 Connecticut 17-6-5 50 8
9 Wisconsin 15-10-3 22 10
10 Providence 12-9-8 9 9

Others Receiving Votes: Cornell 7, Syracuse 3, Ohio State 2, Niagara 1, Quinnipiac 1

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Back to back shutouts vs Minnesota is a start.

Basically that's it. Harvard's poll ranking is not far off from the computer rankings. What distinguishes Harvard from 7-10 generally is they have that quality weekend against Minnesota. They don't have as many low-ranked losses as some of the teams ranked below them. Probably RPI is Harvard's worse lost of the top of my head, while NU lost to Maine, Providence lost to Vermont, etc.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

In polls when it comes down to two candidates for a given ranking, who knows what method an individual voter prefers.

Sure, I have no way of precisely what an individual voter will do and what their thought process is, but certainly I've followed this poll for years, and I can recognize when voters tend to move teams up and down. The kind of behavior I observe is inconsistent with the kind of analysis I gave, so I think I can reject the idea that most voters put this much thought into their decisions, which is all I claimed. It's also rational -- most of the voters are coaches, and coaches are better served not spending a ton of time on their voting decision.

The best model I have for predicting poll movements is that most voters will just do pairwise comparisons of adjacent teams in the rankings, they have some idea of what the gap between the teams was, and given what happened the previous week the record and the quality of the opponent, they'll move teams up and down. So the previous week's results will get a lot of weight in the poll.

I'm not so sure if Minnesota splits UMD on the road and Mercyhurst sweeps, that Minnesota then loses all its first-place votes. Voters will take into account that UMD is a better team than Niagara. Probably they'd lose enough 1sts to fall to No. 2 though (it'd only take 3 of 10 to change their minds).

 

[fanfair]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

It will take Niagara some take time to gain recognition for the team it is and not the team it has been in the past. Interesting they had a biger affect on Mercyhursts top ten results than ther own. Better to be the spoiler rather than the spoilee perhaps.

 

[Bergey1]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

I think pretty much everyone has recognized Niagara's improvement, but their record shows inconsistency, beating teams like Mercyhurst and Cornell, but losing to Wayne State, Colgate and to a lesser extent Syracuse. Definitely much improved however.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

The kind of behavior I observe is inconsistent with the kind of analysis I gave, so I think I can reject the idea that most voters put this much thought into their decisions, which is all I claimed.

I have no problem with your analysis or the factors that you examined. (Well maybe with your doubts as to whether UM can beat anyone good on the road, although unless SCSU meets the threshold, then maybe Duluth is their only future road destination.) Some percentage of voters may not conduct their own in depth analysis, but may read what others have posted. In that case, a well-supported prediction, like yours, could become a bit of a self-fulfilling prophesy.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

I have no problem with your analysis or the factors that you examined. (Well maybe with your doubts as to whether UM can beat anyone good on the road, although unless SCSU meets the threshold, then maybe Duluth is their only future road destination.)

True, that was a bit of an exaggeration.

Some percentage of voters may not conduct their own in depth analysis, but may read what others have posted. In that case, a well-supported prediction, like yours, could become a bit of a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Possible. I'll note BU was ranked forever in the polls despite whining from this thread, and it didn't change anyone's mind. Though maybe the analysis arguing against BU being ranked wasn't as strong.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Mercyhurst holds on in the USA Today poll:

USA TODAY/USA Hockey women's poll

Feb. 2, 2010

Rank School (first-place votes) Record Points Last week
1 Mercyhurst (10) 20-2-3 181 1
2 Minnesota (9) 21-3-4 180 2
3 Clarkson 19-5-3 149 3
4 New Hampshire 15-4-5 125 5
5 Minnesota Duluth 19-7-2 124 4
6 Harvard 12-5-4 81 7
7 Northeastern 16-5-4 78 6
8 Connecticut 17-6-5 67 8
9 Wisconsin 15-10-3 23 10
10 Cornell 10-8-5 20 NR

Others receiving votes: Providence College, 7; Syracuse University, 7; The Ohio State University, 2; Niagara University, 1.

 

[Rinktaxi]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

USA TODAY/USA Hockey women's poll

Feb. 2, 2010

Rank School (first-place votes) Record Points Last week
1 Mercyhurst (10) 20-2-3 181 1
2 Minnesota (9) 21-3-4 180 2
3 Clarkson 19-5-3 149 3
4 New Hampshire 15-4-5 125 5
5 Minnesota Duluth 19-7-2 124 4
6 Harvard 12-5-4 81 7
7 Northeastern 16-5-4 78 6
8 Connecticut 17-6-5 67 8
9 Wisconsin 15-10-3 23 10
10 Cornell 10-8-5 20 NR

Others receiving votes: Providence College, 7; Syracuse University, 7; The Ohio State University, 2; Niagara University, 1.


Can someone help me to understand how Syracuse gets the votes they do? They have lost 4 of their last six games and the get 7 votes? Sure you can say the played Mercyhurst tough in the second game of their series, but they got spanked 8-1 in the first game. Just trying to understand if there is an logic to this.

 

[MICZamboni]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Others receiving votes: Providence College, 7; Syracuse University, 7; The Ohio State University, 2; Niagara University, 1.


Can someone help me to understand how Syracuse gets the votes they do? They have lost 4 of their last six games and the get 7 votes? Sure you can say the played Mercyhurst tough in the second game of their series, but they got spanked 8-1 in the first game. Just trying to understand if there is an logic to this.

To keep Ohio St. from getting more votes.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Can someone help me to understand how Syracuse gets the votes they do?

I think that after the top 8 in the poll, there is a big drop in the total votes received. All of these teams have had a fair number of losses and some bad stretches. The voters have to vote for someone, and perhaps they've watched a given team when they were playing well and it left a favorable impression. Most weeks some of the teams that I think deserve to be around the bottom half of the top 10 have rough weekends and suffer some losses. The voters may want to drop these teams, but who gets moved up? There have been a number of weeks where Wisconsin splits (yet again), but moves up because other teams did even worse.

 

[fanfair]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

So far the most consitent logic is that there is none...poll results can be justified by current week results OR early season results, depends on the team and who is voting

 

[IceIsNice]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Let's not forget that the only "poll" that actually counts is when the NCAA picks their 5 at large teams for the Elite Eight. So much of that depends on who wins automatic bids, as well as all the other obvious subjective elements. I think I remember this correctly; when Clarkson got left behind recently despite being ranked #8, meanwhile Dartmouth was #9 and got invited. There was quite a dispute over the numbers supporting either side of this decision. Historians can correct me if I got it wrong, but.... I'd say of the twenty something polls taken that season, Dartmouth got the votes in the one "poll" that mattered.

 

[fanfair]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

Like the only shots on net that really count are the ones that go in

 

[sheba]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

if the CHA champion does not get an automatic bid to the NCAA, and the hockey gods strike havoc and a team other than Mercyhurst wins the CHA tournament,, could that winning team not make the NCAA and Mercyhurst still get invited "at-large" based on their season-long ranking?? Last year -- Harvard who had been ranked no.1 in the ECAC lost in the ECAC tournament and then was excluded from the NCAA because of auto-bid for the tourney champion instead. With no auto-bid, how would that play out??

 

[ARM]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

if the CHA champion does not get an automatic bid to the NCAA, and the hockey gods strike havoc and a team other than Mercyhurst wins the CHA tournament,, could that winning team not make the NCAA and Mercyhurst still get invited "at-large" based on their season-long ranking?

Yes. The NCAA field is the autobid winner from the ECAC, HEA, and WCHA, plus the top 5 at-large teams. For NCAA selection purposes, the CHA tournament winner only gains what advances that they make in the PairWise Rankings by winning the tournament games.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

The 3 autobid winners and the top 5 other teams will always make the NCAA tournament.

Last year, Harvard did not win the autobid, and they were not one of the top 5 other teams (they were trailing Mercyhurst, Minnesota, UMD, Boston College, and St. Lawrence). Note that even though Harvard finished ahead of St. Lawrence in the final ECAC standings, St. Lawrence finished ahead of Harvard due to their superior performance aside from the ECAC regular season.

To answer Sheba's question, the CHA tournament has no special meaning for NCAA selection purposes. CHA tourney games will factor just as much as CHA regular season games in the selection process. So yes, it's likely that a CHA winner other than Mercyhurst would not make the NCAA tournament, because no other CHA team is likely to be among the top 5 teams that does not win an autobid.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2009-2010 Polls thread

(Well maybe with your doubts as to whether UM can beat anyone good on the road, although unless SCSU meets the threshold, then maybe Duluth is their only future road destination.)

Well, so Minnesota Road falls to 6-5-4 overall, 3-5-4 in its last 12, and 0-5-3 in its last 8 against teams not 7th or worse in the WCHA standings. But only one game left in their season, and 15-0 undefeated Minnesota Home takes over the rest of the way.