I dunno about that - see psych's post just before yours. I think the odds that an HFC member asks to recall McCarthy's spreakership over this deal are very high. If McCarthy's only interest were to maintain his captaincy, even if he had to scuttle the boat, well, it's only Republicans that he would have to fear. Democrats can't do a darn thing to him, so if remaining speaker was his only goal, he should have stayed full hardline to the right and not negotiated at all.
If he allows a default to happen, one of the remaining non-insanoids will put forward a motion to vacate as well. McCarthy has backed himself into this totally-foreseeable future and he isn't anywhere near smart enough to navigate it, but still, I think Obama's theory on Boehner holds true here.
Also, unless something has changed, it sounds like the HFC won't whip against the deal (though many will bleat about it and vote no), and they likely won't attempt to vacate the chair. It's beyond pathetic that cretins like Matt Gaetz have so much say in the House majority party, but ... here we are.