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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Handyman said:
I got $5 on Georgian at 5-1...solid value bet :p
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Georgians typically work from within.

young_Stalin_1.jpg



I'm backing a dark horse.
 
Russia can't even wrap up Ukraine and the Kremlin thinks they can afford to take on NATO at the same time? :rolleyes:

Their only shot at making a protracted war of it would be with help from Beijing. Russia acting alone could do some damage and cause some grief, but the NATO response would assuredly be fatal.
 
I think Putin’s eye is looking to the future…and not too near future if Trump wins the election…a subjugated Ukraine gives Russia plenty of places to attack NATO from. Was it Zelenskyy, or one of his top generals, that said Ukraine would be finished by the winter if the U.S. didn’t send more supplies? We’re walking them toward the precipice, and that’s with Biden in office. If we lose the Senate, which is automatically going 50-50 with Manchin’s retirement, it’ll be even harder to supply Ukraine. They’re fighting hard, but the tables have currently turned.
Sure, the Finnish border is strong, but the Baltic countries are weaker and isolated. I read somewhere that the Russians could take over all three Baltic nations within a week, before NATO could even properly respond. I’d rather we keep supplying Ukraine, albeit at a faster clip (it’s not Biden’s fault), than have World War III on our hands…
 
Call me when the GOP actually wins the Senate...all we hear is how tough it's going to be and yet the last two times out what happened exactly?

We are living in unprecedented times yet done pepe cling to the old truths like they still hold.
 
Handyman said:
Call me when the GOP actually wins the Senate...all we hear is how tough it's going to be and yet the last two times out what happened exactly?

We are living in unprecedented times yet done pepe cling to the old truths like they still hold.
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Math is still valid, though. Dems lose 1, and have 4 lean and 3 toss-up, while GOP has all safe.
 
psych said:
I think Putin’s eye is looking to the future…and not too near future if Trump wins the election…a subjugated Ukraine gives Russia plenty of places to attack NATO from. Was it Zelenskyy, or one of his top generals, that said Ukraine would be finished by the winter if the U.S. didn’t send more supplies? We’re walking them toward the precipice, and that’s with Biden in office. If we lose the Senate, which is automatically going 50-50 with Manchin’s retirement, it’ll be even harder to supply Ukraine. They’re fighting hard, but the tables have currently turned.
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Europe is getting ready if the US turns tail. Remember, there's a lot there. And can you imagine how the current anti-EU poutrage will change if they are suddenly facing down the Russian bear with no US shield?
 
Kepler said:
Math is still valid, though. Dems lose 1, and have 4 lean and 3 toss-up, while GOP has all safe.
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I know I’ve argued before, if any politicians are capable of overcoming simple demographics, Tester and Brown would be the ones. Can’t speak for Rosen, but I hope it’s true for her too. Nevada staying blue likely means she wins too, because I’m assuming, too lazy to look, that Biden’s more unpopular in Nevada than she is.
Definitely a tougher map than 2022 or 2020. Not impossible, no.
 
Kepler said:
Europe is getting ready if the US turns tail. Remember, there's a lot there. And can you imagine how the current anti-EU poutrage will change if they are suddenly facing down the Russian bear with no US shield?
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I don’t doubt they’re getting ready now. But they won’t be fully ready for a while. Even the most ardent EU military hawks would tell you that. Especially for Ukraine, they need backing now, or they’re cooked within a year or less, according to their own leaders. You and I read many of the same articles, many saying generally the same things as each other. If Ukraine is cooked, even in the next couple years, due to neglect from the United States, either active or passive, Russia has plenty of manpower, materiel, and time to regroup, set up Ukraine as a base of operations, and attack NATO from a far stronger position than its ever been, save the start of the Cold War.
2024 is crazy for how important all of the elections are, or have already been, across the entire world.
 
psych said:
I know I’ve argued before, if any politicians are capable of overcoming simple demographics, Tester and Brown would be the ones. Can’t speak for Rosen, but I hope it’s true for her too. Nevada staying blue likely means she wins too, because I’m assuming, too lazy to look, that Biden’s more unpopular in Nevada than she is.
Definitely a tougher map than 2022 or 2020. Not impossible, no.
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Good summary. Also factor in Dobbs and hopefully there is a universally valid reason for the Dems to overperform everywhere.

Anybody know why NV is going the opposite direction of AZ?
 
psych said:
I don’t doubt they’re getting ready now. But they won’t be fully ready for a while. Even the most ardent EU military hawks would tell you that. Especially for Ukraine, they need backing now, or they’re cooked within a year or less, according to their own leaders. You and I read many of the same articles, many saying generally the same things as each other. If Ukraine is cooked, even in the next couple years, due to neglect from the United States, either active or passive, Russia has plenty of manpower, materiel, and time to regroup, set up Ukraine as a base of operations, and attack NATO from a far stronger position than its ever been, save the start of the Cold War.
2024 is crazy for how important all of the elections are, or have already been, across the entire world.
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Poland alone might be able to beat the Russians head-to-head right now. But I take your point -- Russia is dying and Putin is dying and so they are rolling the dice now. A cornered dying animal is the most dangerous, look at MAGA.
 
Putin's strategy for victory is now to inundate the West with propaganda through overt state channels like RT and PressTV, as well as Useful Idiot mechanisms like Euroskeptic EU parties, Fox News, Newsmax, The Convict, and the RNC. Seeing how well the GOP did his bidding slowing down aid, his plan is now to help rightwing parties win EU elections and GOPers on the payroll win US elections, and then have them choke off Ukraine aid.

Given that this is directly against US, Western, and democratic interests, in the service of Russian oligarchs and fascism, one could charitably call it "malfeasance" or, more directly, "treason."

This is Mosley and Lindbergh re: Hitler, 2024 Edition.
 
psych said:
I know I’ve argued before, if any politicians are capable of overcoming simple demographics, Tester and Brown would be the ones. Can’t speak for Rosen, but I hope it’s true for her too. Nevada staying blue likely means she wins too, because I’m assuming, too lazy to look, that Biden’s more unpopular in Nevada than she is.
Definitely a tougher map than 2022 or 2020. Not impossible, no.
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Nevada is putting Abortion on the ballot...Rosen should be safe. (Biden will likely win Nevada too) Rosen is centrist enough to satisfy Indys as well.

Tester is very popular and is running against a dude from Minnesota. Montanans don't seem keen on interlopers. Plus Trump endorsed Sheehy so there is that albatross.

Can't speak for Brown I know nothing about that race.

Kep, the math being used isn't putting all the factors in. There is more to the calculus than just "X" and "Y".
 
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IIRC, saw a few days ago that Brown was polling up by an average of 4-5 points over Moreno, who is a MAGA nut. However, Biden was still losing Ohio by 8-10 of course.
 
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