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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The sheer hutzpah of the Kremlin bribing Dump and the entire Republican party is astounding.

Ukraine will likely be in a significantly improved operational position by June 2024 regardless of delays in the arrival of US security assistance to the frontline, and the Russian military command will likely consider significant changes to the large-scale offensive operation that it is expected to launch in June, although it may still proceed as planned. Ukrainian forces will likely leverage sufficient US security assistance to blunt Russian offensive operations in June 2024, which Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov recently highlighted as the likely month that Russian forces will launch their expected large-scale summer offensive effort.[17] The Russian military has likely been assessing that Ukrainian forces would be unable to defend against current and future Russian offensive operations due to delays in or the permanent end of US military assistance. This assumption was likely an integral part of Russia’s operational planning for this summer.[18] Russian forces have been establishing operational- and strategic-level reserves to support their expected summer offensive effort, but likely have been doing so based on the assumption that even badly-trained and poorly-equipped Russian forces could make advances against Ukrainian forces that lack essential artillery and air defense munitions.[19] Ukraine is also addressing its own manpower challenges and will likely continue to conduct rotations to rest and replenish degraded units, although it will take time for these efforts to generate large-scale effects.[20]

Ukrainian officials have previously indicated that Russian forces will likely continue to conduct offensive operations this summer focused on seizing the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts but may also launch an offensive operation to seize Kharkiv City.[21] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov notably signaled on April 19 Russia’s intent to seize Kharkiv City.[22] The Russian military command may have envisioned that simultaneous offensive efforts towards Kharkiv City and along the current frontline in eastern Ukraine would stretch and overwhelm poorly-provisioned and undermanned Ukrainian forces and allow Russian forces to achieve a major breakthrough in at least one sector of the frontline. The Ukrainian forces with improving materiel and manpower supplies that will likely hold the frontline in June 2024 will undermine this operational intent of simultaneous Russian offensive operations across a wider front. The Russian military command will likely have to considerif the intended areas and objectives of its summer offensive effort are now feasible and if the current means that Russian forces have been concentrating and preparing are sufficient to conduct planned offensive operations considering the expected resumption of US security assistance to Ukraine. ISW offers no forecast of the decisions the Russians will make at this time.
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Ivan is scrambling to lock down the gains they made while their Republican allies were were gumming up weapons shipments. This year's RNC brought to you by Putin.

The Beeb ran a story that those gains were amplified by the Russians using banned chemical weapons on Ukrainian positions, so just another thing for our Nazi traitors and their voters to be proud of.
 
That's an interesting one. Not unsurprising given how things have gone, but still. It will raise some eyebrows giving his longtime buddy the boot.
 
ISW said it’s because this helps Putin place Russia on a long-term war footing, both with Ukraine and eventually NATO. I guess we’ll see how that all unfolds in the backdrop of Russia’s current and upcoming offensive.
 
Yeah, I guess new stooge is more of an economy guy, so this is less "a new tact in warfare" than it is fully embracing a wartime economy. Russia is in this for the long haul.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
At this point they have to be. They've mortgaged everything for this.
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This is starting to remind me of Austro-Hungary in the 1910s. Global position slipping, 99 multi-ethnic imperial problems, slight reformist tack reversed by harsh authoritarian reaction.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
So when is Putin getting whacked, and by which ethnic minority?
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The problem with an internal strike is that the blame will get put on NATO, no matter who sets things in motion.

Then the question becomes how dirty of a word "NATO" is among the Gen Pop.

Think how America as a whole felt about Muslims after 9/11.
 
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