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Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

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Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

Good point. That would adjust the first round percentages slightly. If someone could point me to a source for all of the tournament results over this period as well as the mid-December and final rankings I could do a more proper startistical analysis. The rankings are (more or less) valid if: (a) the probability that A beats B is significantly related to the difference in the rankings of A and B; and (b) higher ranked teams have higher probabilities of winiing (although it doesn't have to be significant for small ranking differences). Since the top 4 rankings (in PWR, not necessarily polls) are split up in the regionals, that means that the Frozen Four are the main opportunity to see high-ranked matches, which in turn means that the Frozen Four ought to be reasonably close to random with very little advantage for number one at all, and that's what we've seen.
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

goblue78 said:
Good point. That would adjust the first round percentages slightly. If someone could point me to a source for all of the tournament results over this period as well as the mid-December and final rankings I could do a more proper startistical analysis. The rankings are (more or less) valid if: (a) the probability that A beats B is significantly related to the difference in the rankings of A and B; and (b) higher ranked teams have higher probabilities of winiing (although it doesn't have to be significant for small ranking differences). Since the top 4 rankings (in PWR, not necessarily polls) are split up in the regionals, that means that the Frozen Four are the main opportunity to see high-ranked matches, which in turn means that the Frozen Four ought to be reasonably close to random with very little advantage for number one at all, and that's what we've seen.
Click to expand...

Tournament results http://www.augenblick.org/chha/ncaa_trn.html. Can't help with the rankings.
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

goblue78 said:
Good point. That would adjust the first round percentages slightly. If someone could point me to a source for all of the tournament results over this period as well as the mid-December and final rankings I could do a more proper startistical analysis. The rankings are (more or less) valid if: (a) the probability that A beats B is significantly related to the difference in the rankings of A and B; and (b) higher ranked teams have higher probabilities of winiing (although it doesn't have to be significant for small ranking differences). Since the top 4 rankings (in PWR, not necessarily polls) are split up in the regionals, that means that the Frozen Four are the main opportunity to see high-ranked matches, which in turn means that the Frozen Four ought to be reasonably close to random with very little advantage for number one at all, and that's what we've seen.
Click to expand...

I think you can find the poll archives on this site, under rankings.

I think another interesting thing about FS23's list is that all but about 3 of those teams ranked number 1 in early-mid December polls achieved a #1 seed in the tournament, something I expect Yale to continue this year. That will give them the opportunity to win four in a row for the championship.
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

yalehockeyfan said:
From our NCAA team from last year we lost about 2-3 players who were significant contributors. Find me another team that returns as many players in their top 3-4 lines. Regarding the ignorance, i appreciate you trying to share, but you can keep it this holiday season.
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I'm sure there are numerous other examples, but North Dakota lost 2 forwards who played regularily, including their leading goal scorer. They also lost a forward who played maybe 3/4 the games and their 6th defensemen who was in the lineup only due to the injury to Genoway. They lost a total of 28 of the 140 goals scored last year.

Yale lost two of their top four leading goal scorers, their top scorer on the blueline, and 44 of the 141 goals they scored last year.

Yale has a nice team, and returned a good portion of the lineup that lead them last year. However, I wouldn't assume that everyone else suffered worse losses.
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

goblue78 said:
Good point. That would adjust the first round percentages slightly. If someone could point me to a source for all of the tournament results over this period as well as the mid-December and final rankings I could do a more proper startistical analysis. The rankings are (more or less) valid if: (a) the probability that A beats B is significantly related to the difference in the rankings of A and B; and (b) higher ranked teams have higher probabilities of winiing (although it doesn't have to be significant for small ranking differences). Since the top 4 rankings (in PWR, not necessarily polls) are split up in the regionals, that means that the Frozen Four are the main opportunity to see high-ranked matches, which in turn means that the Frozen Four ought to be reasonably close to random with very little advantage for number one at all, and that's what we've seen.
Click to expand...

Here is some data. I only did 2002-2003 to present because that is when the tournament shifted from 12 teams and byes for the top 4 seeds to a 16 team tournament where every team needs to win four games to win it all.

2002-2003
Final Poll #1 - Cornell defeats #11 Mankato and #8 BC, before losing to #3 New Hampshire in Frozen Four
2nd week of December #1 - North Dakota drops to #12 in rankings, loses to #5 Ferris State in First Round
Frozen Four - #1 Cornell, #3 New Hampshire, #4 Minnesota, #7 Michigan

2003-2004
Final Poll #1 - Maine defeats #15 Harvard, #11 Wisconsin, and #4 Boston College before losing to #8 Denver in Title Game
2nd week of December #1 - North Dakota is ranked 2nd, defeats (NR) Holy Cross before losing to #8 Denver
Frozen Four - #1 Maine, #4 Boston College, #5 Minnesota-Duluth, #8 Denver

2004-2005
Final Poll #1 - Denver defeats (NR) Bemidji State, #6 New Hampshire, #3 Colorado College and #10 North Dakota
2nd week of December #1 - Minnesota is ranked #7, defeats #12 Maine and #4 Cornell before losing to #10 North Dakota
Frozen Four - #1 Denver #3 Colorado College, #7 Minnesota, #10 North Dakota

2005-2006
Final Poll #1 - Boston University defeats #15 Nebraska-Omaha before losing to #9 Boston College in Regional Final
2nd week of December #1 - Wisconsin defeats (NR) Bemidji State, #8 Cornell, #10 Maine and #9 Boston College
Frozen Four - #2 Wisconsin, #6 North Dakota, #9 Boston College, #10 Maine

2006-2007
Final Poll #1 - Notre Dame defeats (NR) Alabama-Huntsville before losing to #10 Michigan State in Regional Final
2nd week of December #1 - Minnesota is ranked #2 defeats (NR) Air Force before losing to #6 North Dakota
Frozen Four - #4 Boston College, #6 North Dakota, #10 Michigan State, #14 Maine

2007-2008
Final Poll #1 - Michigan defeats #19 Niagara, and #11 Clarkson before losing to #12 Notre Dame in Frozen Four
2nd week of December #1 - Michigan
Frozen Four - #1 Michigan, #3 North Dakota, #7 Boston College, #12 Notre Dame

2008-2009
Final Poll #1 - Boston University defeats #14 Ohio State, #12 New Hampshire, #11 Vermont, #13 Miami
2nd week of December #1 - Notre Dame is ranked #2, loses first game to (NR) Bemidji State
Frozen Four - #1 BU #11 Vermon, #13 Maine, (NR) Bemidji State

2009-2010
Final Poll #1 - Miami defeats (NR) Alabama-Huntsville and #11 Michigan before losing to #3 Boston College in Frozen Four
2nd week of December #1 - Miami
Frozen Four - #1 Miami, #3 Boston College, #5 Wisconsin, #20 RIT

Twice the 2nd week of December #1 team was the Final Poll #1 team. Both of those squads lost in the Frozen Four.
Only twice did the Final Poll #1 team miss the Frozen Four (2006 - BU, 2007 - Notre Dame).
Looking at it a bit differently, Final Poll #1 record was 19-6 (.760) in the NCAA Tournament winning it twice ('05 Denver, '09 BU), while the #1 from the 2nd week of December (Not including the two times where the Final Poll #1 was also #1 in December - '08 Michigan, '10 Miami) was 8-5 (.615) winning it once ('06 Wisconsin). If you include '08 Michigan and '10 Miami that record goes to 12-7 (.632).
Another interesting tidbit is the failures of the #2 ranked team in the Final Polls. Only once in this 8 year span did they make the Frozen Four ('06 Wisconsin).
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

Interesting analysis by the Sioux fan.

Does anyone know if Andersons injury is long term?
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

Goon said:
I think most teams only have what 23-24 players on their roster... So you might want to check your math...
Click to expand...

That's patently false at the collegiate level. St. Lawrence had 35 last year, UND has 26 this year, and - if I may add - anyone who is trying to pretend that Yale isn't a Frozen Four-caliber team this year is severely ignorant, deluded, or both.
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

35 players? Were they having attendance problems so they recruited a bunch of players to sit in the stands?
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

ECACHL writer said:
That's patently false at the collegiate level. St. Lawrence had 35 last year, UND has 26 this year, and - if I may add - anyone who is trying to pretend that Yale isn't a Frozen Four-caliber team this year is severely ignorant, deluded, or both.
Click to expand...

Right on, Brian! Power to the Bulldogs!!!!
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

Yale has 28 players on their roster. I do not believe that they all dress.19 players participated in the last game against VT 1 goalie, 12 forwards and 6 defense. 1 forward left the game on the first shift
 
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LTsatch said:
Yale has 28 players on their roster. I do not believe that they all dress. 19 players participated in the last game against VT. 1 goalie,6 defensemen and 12 forwards, one of which was replaced 10 seconds into the game due to injury
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looks like four lines
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

Speaking of Yale's roster, I've been curious as to the status of freshman Brad Peltz. He's an Ottawa Senators draft pick ('10, seventh round), and in speaking with Allain a couple weeks back, I didn't catch any whiff of an injury. Is the current lineup too good for an NHL prospect, is he hurt, or perhaps the Sens have him vastly overrated? Yeah, I know, these are things that it's my job to figure out... but you know how Coach is about, well, talking. ;)
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

ECACHL writer said:
That's patently false at the collegiate level. St. Lawrence had 35 last year, UND has 26 this year, and - if I may add - anyone who is trying to pretend that Yale isn't a Frozen Four-caliber team this year is severely ignorant, deluded, or both.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure why you added that last part. Now, I haven't read through all these threads, but who here is saying that Yale isn't a Frozen Four-caliber team?

I mean, any team that makes the NCAA Tournament is a Frozen Four-caliber team. RIT and Bemidji State have shown us that in the last two years, and Yale will most certainly be in the NCAA Tournament.
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

ECACHL writer said:
That's patently false at the collegiate level. St. Lawrence had 35 last year, UND has 26 this year, and - if I may add - anyone who is trying to pretend that Yale isn't a Frozen Four-caliber team this year is severely ignorant, deluded, or both.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure he was excluding goaltenders.

Shouldn't you go back to crying about how Quiz dumped you?
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2010-2011 thread

Thanks to FS23, SJHovey and Ralph Baer (and a bunch of tedious data manipulation) I now have the data I need to begin a study on the predictive power of midseason and final rankings on NCAA Tournament results. It will be done once my darn employers let up on their absurd demand that I do the work they're paying me for rather than thinking about college hockey. When I get results, I'll post them in a new thread. In the meantime, I wanted to second Fighting Sioux 23's comments. In reading posts on this forum, it is quite difficult to separate the reasonable doubters from the idiots on many points. Fighting Sioux 23 is exactly right: (almost) anyone who gets into the tournament is a legitimate Frozen Four threat. The extra degree of probability from being Krach-better, RPI-better, Ranking-better, Cupcakefree-better, or any other kind of better is small. An ocular analysis of FS23's results above makes that clear. Do I love that Yale is ranked number one? Of course. Does it blind me to the uphill nature of the struggle? It does not. But everyone has an uphill struggle -- that's what makes it fun to watch.
 
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