I am certainly dense but I still think the expected value function is on my side. You do start to say in this iteration that the buyers are fools and like I've been saying that's plausible. God knows wealth and intellect are unrelated.
I was more focused on the idea that already being in the EPL is supposedly somehow onerous, but my argument works just as well for being at any level within the system. If you bought you just proved you think it's a good deal to buy or you're a masochist, and while there are plenty of narcissists among team owners, I don't see many masochists.
E
FL not E
PL. It’s talking about teams in the Championship, the level below. Being in the EPL is not the onerous, it’s getting there and staying there that’s onerous. Even being a mid-table team in the PL is dangerous because you’re one unlucky season from relegation and potential financial crisis.
In the European system, and especially in England, you have to take risk and spend above your means to move up, whether that’s to gain promotion or to a Europa League spot or to a title. If you do succeed, you’ll be rewarded and it’ll pay off. If you don’t, your club will be just another Leeds or Portsmouth.
15 years ago the Big Six didn’t exist, it was Man U, Arsenal, and Liverpool. Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea in 2003 and spent over a £100 million (money they didn’t have at that time) on players to try to win a title, and didn’t win (they won back to back in 2005 and 2006 after they bought Mourinho from Porto). Manchester City wasn’t relevant until they were bought by the Abu Dhabi group in 2008 who immediately increased spending, including breaking the transfer record for Robinho, and they still didn’t win until 2012. In both cases their owners covered huge financial losses until their successes.
Championship clubs don’t have the ability nor ownership to absorb those kinds of losses for the sake of, by comparison, a smaller and inconsistent payday. And when you don’t succeed things can spiral out of control quickly, posting sustained financial losses will get you hit with transfer bans, forcing you to field a worse team, risking relegation and further financial trouble. Even if you don’t risk it and plan soundly, you’ll still probably lose, get relegated, and face financial troubles anyway because everyone else is risking it.
It’s all a bubble relying upon constant injections of capital from naive rich folks to sustain it. Problem is, the amount rich folks willing to shell out won’t last, and when that day comes the whole system will collapse.