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World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
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Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

burgie12 said:
You're right. I thought for a second that they would just draw two UEFA teams consecutively, instead of putting the 9th ranked team in their own pot, which makes a lot more sense.
Click to expand...

You never know with FIFA, but I would suspect that they would incorporate the "special pot" again if the seeds turn out as expected.

That could mean the following:

Pot A: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay*, Belgium, and Switzerland
Pot B: UEFA (top 8: Italy, Netherlands, England, Portugal*, Greece*, Croatia*, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Russia)
Pot C: CONMEBOL (Chile and Ecuador) + CAF (Ivory Coast**, Nigeria**, Cameroon**, Ghana**, Burkina Faso**)
Pot D: AFC (Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Iran) + CONCACAF (USA, Mexico*, Costa Rica, and Honduras)
Special Pot: (Lowest Ranked UEFA Team) Ukraine*

*Projected Winner of Playoff (going by FIFA Ranking)
** Projected Winner of Playoff (CAF - going by first leg results)

Obviously, you can switch out playoff winners for other countries (for example, the UEFA playoff winners will be the "seeded" teams for the draw on Monday), but there could be some very interesting group of death scenarios (for example, Brazil, Portugal, France, and USA). There are also going to be some "group of dream" scenarios for certain teams (for example, the US getting paired with Switzerland, Jordan, and Iceland). Needless to say, it should be a great draw to watch on December 6th.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Shirtless Guy said:
I was loving the 2-1 Panama lead as much as anyone but I can't fault the US for fighting back and playing to the end. I would have loved to see Panama continue it's quest for it's first World Cup appearance but oh well. I can't hate Zusi, especially not after breaking the scoreless tie in Kansas City that made all that driving last friday worth it.
Click to expand...

Oh, I'm in the same boat. At least for me, the Zusi hatred is all in jest.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
You never know with FIFA, but I would suspect that they would incorporate the "special pot" again if the seeds turn out as expected.

That could mean the following:

Pot A: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay*, Belgium, and Switzerland
Pot B: UEFA (top 8: Italy, Netherlands, England, Portugal*, Greece*, Croatia*, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Russia)
Pot C: CONMEBOL (Chile and Ecuador) + CAF (Ivory Coast**, Nigeria**, Cameroon**, Ghana**, Burkina Faso**)
Pot D: AFC (Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Iran) + CONCACAF (USA, Mexico*, Costa Rica, and Honduras)
Special Pot: (Lowest Ranked UEFA Team) Ukraine*

*Projected Winner of Playoff (going by FIFA Ranking)
** Projected Winner of Playoff (CAF - going by first leg results)

Obviously, you can switch out playoff winners for other countries (for example, the UEFA playoff winners will be the "seeded" teams for the draw on Monday), but there could be some very interesting group of death scenarios (for example, Brazil, Portugal, France, and USA). There are also going to be some "group of dream" scenarios for certain teams (for example, the US getting paired with Switzerland, Jordan, and Iceland). Needless to say, it should be a great draw to watch on December 6th.
Click to expand...

What are the rules for the special pot, should it happen?
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

So the October 17 FIFA rankings were published this morning.

Spain
Germany
Argentina
Colombia
Belgium
Uruguay
Switzerland

If somehow Jordan beats Uruguay, Netherlands and Italy are tied for 8th (which goes to Brazil as host). US remains at 13, ahead of Portugal and Greece.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

FreshFish said:
So the October 17 FIFA rankings were published this morning.

Spain
Germany
Argentina
Colombia
Belgium
Uruguay
Switzerland

If somehow Jordan beats Uruguay, Netherlands and Italy are tied for 8th (which goes to Brazil as host). US remains at 13, ahead of Portugal and Greece.
Click to expand...

Netherlands would get the seed if Uruguay loses to Jordan.

As for the special pot, there are no official rules, to quote Don Adam, FIFA just makes **** up as they go. More than likely its just that the lowest ranked UEFA team would be guaranteed to be drawn into a pot with a CONMEBOL member as the seed. How they accomplish that is still up in the air.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Priceless said:
What are the rules for the special pot, should it happen?
Click to expand...
We should look at the 2002 and 2006 World Cup draws to figure that out.

In 2002, there were 11 unseeded UEFA teams. They were all put in the same pot and drawn randomly. The 9th, 10th, and 11th teams drawn were then randomly drawn into one of the four groups that didn't have a seeded UEFA team. (15 total UEFA teams)

In 2006, there were 9 unseeded UEFA teams. The Top 8 were put in Pot C while Serbia and Montenegro were in their own special pot. After the seeded teams were all placed in their group, Serbia and Montenegro was drawn first and then their group (from one of the three that did not have a seeded UEFA team) was randomly drawn. (14 total UEFA teams)

Of course, this knowledge means basically nothing because FIFA will say "F it, we'll do it live" and make it up December 5th.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

I used a random number generator and got these results. Obviously the playoffs can change things, but this is an approximation based on what we know now.

Code: 
Group A			Group B		Group C		Group D		Group E		Group F		Group G			Group H
Brazil			Argentina	Uruguay		Spain		Germany		Switzerland	Colombia		Belgium
Italy			Greece		Portugal	Bos/Herz	Netherlands	Russia		Ukraine			England
Ghana			Cameroon	Ivory Coast	Ecuador		Chile		Nigeria		Croatia			Burkina Faso
South Korea		Honduras        Iran		Japan		Australia	Mexico		United States		Costa Rica
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Personally, I find mock draws to be fairly pointless. Any given one has a ridiculously low probability of happening. It's much more interesting to talk about teams we do or don't want to see in the various pots.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

I have been listening to SiriusXM FC a lot the last few days and there has been a ton of complaining about CONCACAF getting 3.5 spots and the fact that Uruguay will be seeded despite the fact that they haven't qualified yet. Do you guys think CONCACAF is as bad as people make it out to be or is it just the perception of the Hexagonal with half qualifying and the 4th out of 6 making the playoff? I think its a perception issue with the different styles of qualifying. There was alot of talk that Africa deserves more spots than it has, taking half or a full spot from CONCACAF but I think again its perception of the format. the winning your group and then winning a 2 team playoff seems like a very harsh way to decide your 5 spots in Africa.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Shirtless Guy said:
I have been listening to SiriusXM FC a lot the last few days and there has been a ton of complaining about CONCACAF getting 3.5 spots and the fact that Uruguay will be seeded despite the fact that they haven't qualified yet. Do you guys think CONCACAF is as bad as people make it out to be or is it just the perception of the Hexagonal with half qualifying and the 4th out of 6 making the playoff? I think its a perception issue with the different styles of qualifying. There was alot of talk that Africa deserves more spots than it has, taking half or a full spot from CONCACAF but I think again its perception of the format. the winning your group and then winning a 2 team playoff seems like a very harsh way to decide your 5 spots in Africa.
Click to expand...

The fact that Uruguay will be seeded but hasn't qualified yet is a trick of the calendar. Would it make people feel better if they'd somehow beaten Jordan a month ago and already qualified? By the time the World Cup draw comes around they will have qualified.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Priceless said:
The fact that Uruguay will be seeded but hasn't qualified yet is a trick of the calendar. Would it make people feel better if they'd somehow beaten Jordan a month ago and already qualified? By the time the World Cup draw comes around they will have qualified.
Click to expand...
Yeah I get that...and if Spain had somehow lost on Tuesday, they would be seeded despite having to win a playoff because France won their group...I don't think anyone would be complaining about Spain being seeded despite that issue.

Here is a breakdown of October 2013 FIFA rankings showing how many countries from each confederation fall into the Top 32, 50, 75, 100, etc to show balance.
Code: 
	Count	Spots	Top 32	Top 50	Top 75	Top 100	Top 125	Top 150	Top 175
UEFA	53	14	20	27	35	43	45	49	51
SoAm	10	4.5	6	9	10	10	10	10	10
NoAm	35	3.5	3	5	6	11	16	21	28
CAF	54	5	3	7	17	26	35	41	44
AFC	46	4.5	0	2	7	9	18	26	38
OFC	11	0.5	0	0	0	1	1	3	4
Interesting enough,if you go out to top 75 and top 100 and divide those numbers by 2.5 and 3 respectively you get pretty close to the current distribution.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Shirtless Guy said:
I have been listening to SiriusXM FC a lot the last few days and there has been a ton of complaining about CONCACAF getting 3.5 spots and the fact that Uruguay will be seeded despite the fact that they haven't qualified yet. Do you guys think CONCACAF is as bad as people make it out to be or is it just the perception of the Hexagonal with half qualifying and the 4th out of 6 making the playoff? I think its a perception issue with the different styles of qualifying. There was alot of talk that Africa deserves more spots than it has, taking half or a full spot from CONCACAF but I think again its perception of the format. the winning your group and then winning a 2 team playoff seems like a very harsh way to decide your 5 spots in Africa.
Click to expand...

With regard to the number of spots in the World Cup... CONCACAF's FIFA rankings coefficient is higher than Africa's, yet CONCACAF has fewer spots. Africa definitely does not deserve more spots on their merits, and they arguably deserve fewer.

To the extent there's a perception problem with CONCACAF, I think it's more grounded historical bias than anything else. Heck, our 4th place team is Mexico... is anybody going to seriously argue that they lack the pedigree to get their sh*t back together and do well in Brazil?

With regard to seeding... Uruguay is tied with Ecuador, just with worse goal difference, and have fewer losses (but also fewer wins) than Chile. They also were a semifinalist in 2010 and won Copa America (a major continental championship). ELO agrees with FIFA that they are a top 7 team in the world. They have a better claim to a seed than Switzerland does.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

It's true about the coefficient, but CONCACAF also has fewer teams and according to FIFA rankings, less depth.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

But Africa's World Cup performance is worse in comparison to CONCACAF, and that's the only real head to head comparison that's available.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Since 1986, CONCACAF has had 10 get out of group and 2 reach the QF.
CAF has had 7 get out of group and 3 reach the QF.
AFC has had 5 get out of group and 1 reach the QF (host).
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Shirtless Guy said:
Since 1986, CONCACAF has had 10 get out of group and 2 reach the QF.
CAF has had 7 get out of group and 3 reach the QF.
AFC has had 5 get out of group and 1 reach the QF (host).
Click to expand...

A little better in the way of deep runs from CAF, but over much of that period, they've had more teams in the tournament than CONCACAF.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Shirtless Guy said:
Since 1986, CONCACAF has had 10 get out of group and 2 reach the QF.
CAF has had 7 get out of group and 3 reach the QF.
AFC has had 5 get out of group and 1 reach the QF (host).
Click to expand...

Out of how many teams total?
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

CONCACAF 19
CAF 28
AFC 22
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_team_appearances_in_the_FIFA_World_Cup#Results_by_confederation
 
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