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Wisconsin Women's Hockey 2023-2024

robertearle said:
Thinking about the Pairwise and UW's position in it (of course), I think I have this right, and it's good news:

Ohio State is going to be the #1. Wisconsin is currently #2, ahead of Clarkson, Colgate, and Minnesota. So, how far, if at all, might UW fall? If we assume they manage to not lose either game to St Thomas...

... the worst that could happen is a loss to Minnesota in the WCHA semis, and then wait for 'selection Sunday'. To fall as far as 4th, two of those three teams would have to pass them. But Clarkson and Colgate are both ECAC teams, so at least one of them is going to be handed one more loss in their tournament. The Pairwise comparisons with those teams will depend entirely on NPI. And on NPI, I'm pretty sure both cannot catch UW; one maybe, but not both, because of that pending loss.

Can Minnesota catch them? Here's the 'news': Even if Minnesota beats UW in the WCHA semis, I don't think that will mean Minnesota can win the Pairwise comparison with UW.

Right now, UW leads in NPI. Assume that a loss would mean Minnesota's NPI passes UW's (it would if Minn goes on to beat Ohio St, and probably would not if Minn loses to Ohio St in the finals). Wisconsin would still lead 3-2 on head-to-head; 3-2 lead head-to-head plus Minn "plus 1" for NPI means they're tied at 3-to-3, and the comparison gets decided on 'common opponents'. And - if I'm properly assigning the 'right' numbers for OT wins and ties - Wisconsin wins 'common opponent' percentages, even if Minnesota wins the WCHA tournament. Meaning Wisconsin wins the Pairwise comparison and stays ahead of Minnesota.

It is more likely that not that Wisconsin has clinched #2, but I think a certainty that they clinched at least #3.

We'll know more later when Grant's app goes live.
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A few minutes playing with Grant's Predictor, I can't even get Minnesota's NPI higher than Wisconsin's. But his app also confirms that Wisconsin wins 'common opponents', so UW definitely wins the Pairwise comparison, cannot be caught by Minnesota.

Also, Clarkson can catch UW for #2; Colgate can also get there, but it's more unlikely. One way at least requires Maine to pull off a couple upsets.

#2, or maybe #3 for Wisconsin. (That also means a Thursday game at LaBahn, with something like St Lawrence vs Penn State, or Cornell vs Mercyhurst, etc.)
 
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robertearle said:
A few minutes playing with Grant's Predictor, I can't even get Minnesota's NPI higher than Wisconsin's. But his app also confirms that Wisconsin wins 'common opponents', so UW definitely wins the Pairwise comparison, cannot be caught by Minnesota.

Also, Clarkson can catch UW for #2; Colgate can also get there, but it's more unlikely. One way at least requires Maine to pull off a couple upsets.

#2, or maybe #3 for Wisconsin. (That also means a Thursday game at LaBahn, with something like St Lawrence vs Penn State, or Cornell vs Mercyhurst, etc.)
Click to expand...

So we can definitely avoid playing Ohio State as a 4 / 5 winner. I mean we'll have to beat them anyhow to win it so I guess it doesn't really matter when.
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I would much enjoy watching the play in game to get to play Wisconsin at LaBahn. That would be fascinating. I appreciate you going through all the prognostications for us.
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Timothy A said:
So we can definitely avoid playing Ohio State as a 4 / 5 winner. I mean we'll have to beat them anyhow to win it so I guess it doesn't really matter when.
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I would much enjoy watching the play in game to get to play Wisconsin at LaBahn. That would be fascinating. I appreciate you going through all the prognostications for us.
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Thinking about games at LaBahn, it's been since 2019 (!) since UW hosted an NCAA quarterfinal. 2020 got cancelled (COVID), 2021 was played entirely at Mercyhurst (COVID), 2022 we went to Northeastern and got beat, and last year went to Colgate and beat them (and LIU).
 
That 4 pm game Friday is going to cut into the old work schedule, but I probably won't have to get there an hour before to get to sit where I prefer to.
 
Timothy A said:
That 4 pm game Friday is going to cut into the old work schedule, but I probably won't have to get there an hour before to get to sit where I prefer to.
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(As I'm sure you know) men's game in the KC, Michigan State, for the B1G championship. I have a ticket for Saturday; I hope the championship is still on the line.
 
robertearle said:
And - if I'm properly assigning the 'right' numbers for OT wins and ties ...
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This is one of the continuing frustrations with the way the NCAA decides and/or documents their selection criteria. It usually takes Grant cornering a selection committee member to get any clarification.

There are certain situations that I doubt that the NCAA even considers when they adjust their processes. Say two teams that share a league meet four times during the season, and Team A wins one in regulation, while Team B wins the other three in OT. In terms of points, each gets 6 of a possible 12. Does the NCAA follow the rules established in NPI and see them as tied H2H, or do they have a dumbed-down way of looking at it, so that Team B leads 3-1? That makes a big difference for potentially flipping a comparison if they meet in a league tourney, so Team A would have a chance to take H2H, versus Team B already having it wrapped up.

Given that nothing like that comes into play for UW/UM, as UW needed OT in only one of its three wins, the Badgers are safe in a comparison with the Gophers.
 
Windchill22 said:
Anybody have info on Ava's health? Or I guess the rest of the lineup after the tough Ohio State for that matter!
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You gave me a stroke, I thought of McNaughton first....LOL....No one asked at the presser. Maybe poster cellwillysnipe knows, sorry for butchering your handle. He/she has all the injury info.

How about those lines in the 2nd and 3rd period...some combo's we haven't seen. I'm not even sure if I can re-create what I saw out there on paper.
 
Timothy A said:
You gave me a stroke, I thought of McNaughton first....LOL....No one asked at the presser. Maybe poster cellwillysnipe knows, sorry for butchering your handle. He/she has all the injury info.

How about those lines in the 2nd and 3rd period...some combo's we haven't seen. I'm not even sure if I can re-create what I saw out there on paper.
Click to expand...

Oh man - my brain wasn't there at all - so I can see where the heart attack would come from!!! Sorry for the confusion!

Yeah - I was constantly trying to figure out the lines! I was thinking "was it a split line change, did someone get caught out? No - that's the line!" Fun to see though. Not sure if was the player chemistry on the line change (for lack of a better definition) or just a shake it up to jar the brains (like pulling a goalie to send a message to the team) but in any case it's a W against Ohio St. - and now we know we can beat them. But what does MJ do tomorrow?
 
Windchill22 said:
Oh man - my brain wasn't there at all - so I can see where the heart attack would come from!!! Sorry for the confusion!

Yeah - I was constantly trying to figure out the lines! I was thinking "was it a split line change, did someone get caught out? No - that's the line!" Fun to see though. Not sure if was the player chemistry on the line change (for lack of a better definition) or just a shake it up to jar the brains (like pulling a goalie to send a message to the team) but in any case it's a W against Ohio St. - and now we know we can beat them. But what does MJ do tomorrow?
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Wasn't that really confusing with the lines and those two periods!? Hall was a wing on a third line? what? I'd like to see him keep the lines the way they finished up with Ohio State. Both Layla and Casey talked about great outlet passes that Kotlowski made so I wouldn't mind seeing her stay in the lineup too.
 
Decided to do the double tomorrow.... I'll probably get home around 12:30 after the men's game, but sleep is for the weak. Maddy and I will have a blast though.

That reminds me if Maddi Wheeler does indeed leave it'll be the first time next season in probably close to 10 years where there's no Maddy on the roster, starting with Maddy Rolfes. A little bit sad because my Maddy always rooted for the other Maddie's on the ice.
 
Timothy A said:
Decided to do the double tomorrow.... I'll probably get home around 12:30 after the men's game, but sleep is for the weak. Maddy and I will have a blast though.

That reminds me if Maddi Wheeler does indeed leave it'll be the first time next season in probably close to 10 years where there's no Maddy on the roster, starting with Maddy Rolfes. A little bit sad because my Maddy always rooted for the other Maddie's on the ice.
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Reminds me of a great answer Rolfes gave post-game after the 2019 championship. Reporter asked 'when did you start realize you had won it? When did it start to hit you?' And Rolfes said something like 'maybe with about a minute or so left. I was on the bench and it starts to hit me, and I start tearing up. And I say to myself, Maddie, you can't start crying, you still have to go back out there!'
 
Conventional lines, no Murphy or Helgeson dressed.

UW doing lots of high speed cycling but it's not producing a lot of good chances. Frank has 1 huge save so far, so does Jane.
 
Just not very satisfied with how that game went. The strategy of cycling with high speed high in the zone and having a forward screening the goalie did not create enough shots on goal. I found myself sitting there thinking that I really enjoy both Ohio State games better than that one form a hockey perspective. The old "pack it in and hope for the best" strategy is not enjoyable hockey to watch. Can't imagine it's very much fun to play that way either for either team. For the better team, they almost might be better off using the three on three style where you pull the puck out of the offensive zone pull it all the way back to your own end and then transition and that creates opportunities on the rush.
 
TJ77 said:
The announcer on B1G+ mentioned Helgeson out for the rest of the season.
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Any word on Murphy? Sounds like only 10 forwards and 6 defense dressed. Need to stay healthy.

Thought the goals Gervais gave up weren’t the most challenging. Think Ava M takes over from here on out
 
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