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The beginning of the end starts tomorrow and I cant wait any longer to find out who will be crowned this year. This week and a half wait has been brutal for me. GO HUSKIES!!!!
In pro football the general rule of thumb is that "defense" wins championships. I am not sure if this translates to college hockey, but if it does, then this will be the "Year of the Riverhawk".
Actually, if recent history is an indicator, it's offense that wins NCAA hockey championships: in 9 of the past 10 years, a top 15 team in scoring offense has defeated a top 10 team in scoring defense in the title game (only 2010 loser Wisconsin bucked this trend, as they were #15 in scoring defense while losing to BC). This season, St Cloud is the only team currently in the top 15 in scoring offense, at #2. Quinnipiac (#1) and Lowell (#3) are both in the top 10 in scoring defense, so, if the trend continues, St Cloud will defeat Lowell for all the marbles.
Another historical trend also points to a St Cloud win over Lowell: over the past 20 years, HE has placed 19 teams into the title game--so almost every year, one of the finalists is from HE--while winning 8 titles. WCHA has also won 8 titles, in 12 appearances. (CCHA has the other 4 titles and 9 appearances. The other leagues--yes, I'm looking at you, Yale and Quinnipiac--have combined for 0 titles in 0 appearances.) So, essentially, when a WCHA team makes the title game, they usually bring home the bacon.
We have two up tempo teams and two defensive teams. It's really hard you know, to pick a winner given the track records and I like the analysis so far. Here's my two cents.
I don't think Yale has the ability to beat lowell. They did well vs UND and Minny but both of those teams play more up tempo and not as defensive a game. I think Lowell is like Union on steroids, and Yale struggled with Union. I think Yale would have done better vs another up tempo team. So I think Lowell wins this one.
In the other match-up we have maybe the best defensive team in the country vs the best offensive team. It's a trap game for St Cloud. They have to score first and they like to open it up, which if they do will cause them to lose.. But I think QU has been shown to be vulnerable, and St Cloud advancing is more likely imho. Though, QU is very good offensively, I think St Cloud can hold them down and I see them winning a low scoring close game. maybe 3-2.
Really it's so hard to predict, but I hate defensive hockey. I hope an up tempo team wins it like they did last year.
Anybody who claims that they picked the outcome of the Yale/Lowell game - and wasn't doing it on a hope and a prayer - is simply not telling the truth. Yale's continuing to look impressive, and Lowell just couldn't blue chip that puck into the attack zone nearly as much as they needed. To give up 45 shots, UML's D corps should just be rip-roaring pi-r-squared at their forwards.
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