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Who advances to the Frozen Four?

Who advances to the Frozen Four?

  • UW, CL, UMD, BC

    Votes: 2 5.4%

  • UW, CL, UMD, SLU

    Votes: 8 21.6%

  • UW, CL, UM, BC

    Votes: 10 27.0%

  • UW, CL, UM, SLU

    Votes: 9 24.3%

  • UW, CO, UMD, BC

    Votes: 1 2.7%

  • UW, CO, UMD, SLU

    Votes: 2 5.4%

  • UW, CO, UM, BC

    Votes: 2 5.4%

  • UW, CO, UM, SLU

    Votes: 2 5.4%

  • RMU, CL, UMD, BC

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • RMU, CL, UMD, SLU

    Votes: 1 2.7%

  • RMU, CL, UM, BC

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • RMU, CL, UM, SLU

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • RMU, CO, UMD, BC

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • RMU, CO, UMD, SLU

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • RMU, CO, UM, BC

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • RMU, CO, UM, SLU

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    37
  • Poll closed .
Re: Who advances to the Frozen Four?

Using KRACH and GRaNT to project out the first round:

http://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...n-four-odds-point-spreads-wisconsin-minnesota

Couple things I learned while doing this:

(1) The GRaNT Rankings absolutely hate Robert Morris. Was curious as to why, and turns out they are 32nd out of 35 teams in goal differential in their wins. So their wins have been close -- wildly close, in fact. That suggests that their record is far better than they've been playing (like a baseball team playing above their Pythagorean expectation or a batter with a super high BABIP).

(2) St. Lawrence really came down to earth since their hot start. The difference in % odds to win the tournament is staggering depending on whether you use all results vs. only results after November 22nd. St. Lawrence has the tournament's worst odds to win, even worse than Robert Morris, if you use the latter (obviously you wouldn't actually do that to project out the tournament, but it's still pretty crazy to see the difference).

(3) I'm really excited.
 
Last edited:
Re: Who advances to the Frozen Four?

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Using KRACH and GRaNT to project out the first round:

http://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...n-four-odds-point-spreads-wisconsin-minnesota
Click to expand...
"The change in tournament odds if you only consider results since November 22nd is staggering..."

Grant, what's so magical about November 22nd?

"Of course, there’s a way to cherry-pick whatever stats you want to make you feel good about your team in the tournament."

Oh, never mind! ;)
 
Re: Who advances to the Frozen Four?

D2D said:
"The change in tournament odds if you only consider results since November 22nd is staggering..."

Grant, what's so magical about November 22nd?
Click to expand...
That was the date of St. Lawrence's last win during their season-opening winning streak haha -- the point of that was to show where things settled in after they came out of the gate hot.

"Of course, there’s a way to cherry-pick whatever stats you want to make you feel good about your team in the tournament."

Oh, never mind!
Click to expand...
I figured a bit of a disclaimer was warranted :D
 
Re: Who advances to the Frozen Four?

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Using KRACH and GRaNT to project out the first round:
. . .
(2) St. Lawrence really came down to earth since their hot start. The difference in % odds to win the tournament is staggering depending on whether you use all results vs. only results after November 22nd. St. Lawrence has the tournament's worst odds to win, even worse than Robert Morris, if you use the latter (obviously you wouldn't actually do that to project out the tournament, but it's still pretty crazy to see the difference).
Click to expand...

Don't actually go digging unless you just can't resist but since you brought it up . . . Would just looking at results since January or just since February make a big difference (on the thought that the team playing next weekend is not the same team tht played in November)? How about dropping the conference tourneys where at least the opening opponents would be weaker teams? What if you only used results from the top 20 teams & removed the weaker ones? I don't expect you to do that but since you did the post-Nov maybe you have played with other adjustments. Have you looked at past seasons & how well this would have predicted their outcome?
 
Re: Who advances to the Frozen Four?

ne7minder said:
Don't actually go digging unless you just can't resist but since you brought it up . . . Would just looking at results since January or just since February make a big difference (on the thought that the team playing next weekend is not the same team tht played in November)? How about dropping the conference tourneys where at least the opening opponents would be weaker teams? What if you only used results from the top 20 teams & removed the weaker ones? I don't expect you to do that but since you did the post-Nov maybe you have played with other adjustments. Have you looked at past seasons & how well this would have predicted their outcome?
Click to expand...

Since I have the calculator on my own spreadsheet I can program it to run pretty much any sim I want. Just a matter of removing games based on some rule. The more results the better, obviously, because a larger sample size will give you better data. But here are a few results:

Second Half (starting December 30th)
Since February 1st
[URL="http://i.imgur.com/o5BcIFW.png"]Only games between top 20 teams in the current KRACH[/URL]
 
Re: Who advances to the Frozen Four?

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Since I have the calculator on my own spreadsheet I can program it to run pretty much any sim I want. Just a matter of removing games based on some rule. The more results the better, obviously, because a larger sample size will give you better data. But here are a few results:

Second Half (starting December 30th)
Since February 1st
[URL="http://i.imgur.com/o5BcIFW.png"]Only games between top 20 teams in the current KRACH[/URL]
Click to expand...

spiffy, THANKS!

Pretty much the same handful of teams at the top though. I'm fond of the idea of only using the top 20 on them (probably mistaken) thought that it removes the effects of playing weaker teams but in theory KRACH and ever RPI try to do that also.
 
Re: Who advances to the Frozen Four?

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Using KRACH and GRaNT to project out the first round:

(2) St. Lawrence really came down to earth since their hot start. The difference in % odds to win the tournament is staggering depending on whether you use all results vs. only results after November 22nd. St. Lawrence has the tournament's worst odds to win, even worse than Robert Morris, if you use the latter (obviously you wouldn't actually do that to project out the tournament, but it's still pretty crazy to see the difference).

St Lawrence are one of those unusual teams who play better on the road than at home

(3) I'm really excited.
Click to expand...

I'm really excited too! Hope to be buying a ticket to St Louis on Monday!
 
Re: Who advances to the Frozen Four?

KTDC said:
Are you an SLU fan? If so, welcome, we need some Saints fans here.
Click to expand...

I've always had a leaning toward this team. Have always been extremely impressed with their being in the Frozen Four mix 12-13 years or so ago while being such a tiny university enrollment-wise. And I was pulling for them a couple years ago when they were turning heads again.

Short St. Lawrence story...was sitting in Agganis Arena taking in the 2009 Frozen Four and two guys ended up sitting beside us. The one next to me struck up a conversation and while discussing different teams I believe that I mentioned St. Lawrence and I found out that Paul Flanagan, Head Coach at St. Lawrence (who had just taken the Head Coaching position at Syracuse) was his best friend. When I asked him how he ended up at the game that day he told me that he didn't even know that the Frozen Four Tournament was taking place, much less in his city. The other guy, his friend, who he hadn't seen or heard from in years called him up out of the blue that very day and told him that he had two tickets and asked him if he wanted to go, so he said "sure".

Well, one thing lead to another in our conversation including many stories he told me about himself and Flanagan and their old hockey days including playing in a tournament in Canada years earlier, in my back yard no less. We got along famously and after we had spoken for a long time, while making sure we had been watching the game at the same time, I noticed that his friend had gotten up and left his seat. I thought he was gone to get something to eat or to the washroom. After some more extended conversation I said "your friend left his seat quite a while ago and hasn't returned...I wonder if something happened to him"...to which he responded something to the effect of "yeah, I noticed that too, I think he got ****ed off that I was talking to you for so long and went home!" Hahahaha. I felt badly but it couldn't be undone. So, we continued to talk and he gave us some great tips on some sites to be sure to take in in Boston. And I'm glad he did, they were well worth it.

That's my St. Lawrence story.

Women's Hockey story...same seats, same tournament. An elderly couple was sitting in front of us and between periods the gentleman turned to talk to me. After he had plied me with questions about the teams and the tournament and women's hockey in general he told me that he had been an avid hockey fan all his life and had always watched and followed the NHL. He had no idea that women's hockey even existed. Someone had informed him a day or two earlier that it did and also told him that the Frozen Four was taking place in Boston that weekend. He and his wife decided that they would take it in. He couldn't stop taking about how surprised and impressed he was with respect to the quality of play and told me that women's hockey had just gained two enthusiastic fans.
 
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