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WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

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beaverhockeyfan said:
They went 1-1-2 against each other, so it could come down to conference wins, which could be a tie. Then it would go to win percentage against the next highest ranked team, if I am following the tiebreakers correctly.
Click to expand...

The Tiebreaker C is not applicable because A was in play, so yes - win percentage versus the teams in standings order is the next tiebreaker (D). This would be their record against Tech first, which would go to BG - (1-2-1) .375 for BG, (0-1-1) .250 for MSU.

EDIT - Even if the W that BG got v. Tech this year was a T because the Offside overturn call was upheld as a goal, and BG's win percentage v. Tech went to .250, they have the win percentage advantage on MSU with FSU (1.000 > .500) and NMU (1.000 > .500).
 
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Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

Interesting record dichotomy between the top three:

Record v. Current 1-4 / 5-8 / 9-10
MSU: 2-3-5 / 9-1* / 4-0-2
MTU: 4-2-2* / 6-5-1 / 6-0
BGSU: 4-3-3 / 8-2-2 / 3-1*

* indicates games remaining are against that bracket.
 
Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

BGDrew said:
I'm sure I'm missing some scenarios, and some tie-breakers can't be determined until the season is over, but I took a run at all the playoff scenarios last night: http://www.bgsuhockey.com/2016/03/wcha-playoff-picture-the-photo-finish/
Click to expand...

I think you did a pretty good job with the top 3 because with the tie disparity, its pretty obvious who would win each unless it ends up being MSU/BGSU...even then the tie disparity only gets made up if MTU doesn't win either game, MSU gets swept and BGSU ties both games...
 
Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

According to this article, BSU can still get home ice. http://www.bgsuhockey.com/2016/03/wcha-playoff-picture-the-photo-finish/

"Bemidji needs 4 points against MSU, NMU takes 0 points against MTU, FSU takes 0 points against LSSU, and achieves a better victory margin comparison over NMU."

What I don't get is how they can do that. Since they don't play NMU this weekend, how do they flip the comparison where NMU won 3 points out of 4 against BSU?

From the WCHA Tiebreaker procedure: "C) If two or more teams are still tied (and A) above is not applicable due to an unbalanced home and away schedule amongst one another), then the team with the highest winning percentage in all head-to-head contests among the tied teams will be granted the higher seed. - See more at: http://www.wcha.com/men/standings.php#sthash.0XV0huJu.dpuf
 
Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

Shirtless Guy said:
So BSU has a shot at home ice yet?
Click to expand...

BSU cannot get home ice. Loses all tiebreakers with NMU (as well as FSU and LSSU). BGDrew and the article are incorrect on this, likely using outdated tiebreaker info.
 
Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

BGDrew said:
"The Beavers aren’t quite mathematically eliminated for a home ice slot, but it’s the longest of shots."

http://www.uscho.com/wcha-blog/2016/02/29/three-things-sprinting-to-the-finish/#ixzz41lQOIgbv
Click to expand...

What tiebreaker can they win? IF they sweep they finish 12-11-5, to finish tied for 4th,
they need NMU to get swept, which puts them at 12-11-5
they also need FSU to either get swept putting them at 12-12-4 or lose and tie 12-11-5.
If they finished tied with only NMU at 12-11-5, Tiebreaker A is invalid, Tiebreaker B is a draw (both 12 wins), Tiebreaker C is H2H, NMU wins by going 1-0-1
If they finished tied with both NMU and FSU at 12-11-5, Tiebreaker A is invalid, Tiebreaker B is a draw (all 12 wins), Tiebreaker C is H2H, NMU would win (0.5833/3-2-1), followed by FSU (0.5625/4-3-1), followed by BSU (0.3333/1-3-2).

Not sure how that is wrong? None of these teams play each other this weekend so the tiebreakers can't change...
http://www.wcha.com/men/standings.php
 
BGDrew said:
"The Beavers aren’t quite mathematically eliminated for a home ice slot, but it’s the longest of shots."

http://www.uscho.com/wcha-blog/2016/02/29/three-things-sprinting-to-the-finish/#ixzz41lQOIgbv
Click to expand...

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say there's some funkified math going on there. BSU loses all potential Tiebraker A's and C's, and is already 2 conference wins behind, so they cannot flip it on Tiebreaker B.

They are mathematically eliminated from home ice as far as I can see (admittedly I am nearsighted).

I wish it were not the case for them, so they had more to play for except positioning, spoiling MacNaughton for MSU and pride.
 
Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

Currently:
NMU 29 (Plays MTU)
Ferris 28 (plays LSSU)
BSU 25 (plays MSU)
LSSU 23

Assuming the best case scenario... BSU (+4), NMU (+0), Ferris (+0):
NMU 29 12-11-5 in WCHA
BSU 29 12-11-5
Ferris 28
LSSU 27

I don't see any scenario how BSU gets home ice. As someone else stated, NMU / BSU only played twice so "A" is out, "B" is a tie with 12 wins each and and "C" goes to NMU. Pretty cut and dried. I'm guessing the blogger was strictly looking at points because both NMU and FSU getting swept AND BSU sweeping is a 1 in a million scenario (but Tech would happily take it.)

Ryan J
 
Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

BGDrew said:
"The Beavers aren’t quite mathematically eliminated for a home ice slot, but it’s the longest of shots."

http://www.uscho.com/wcha-blog/2016/02/29/three-things-sprinting-to-the-finish/#ixzz41lQOIgbv
Click to expand...

Well, I guess that proves it. Didn't realize one could verify bad math by quoting someone else who's wrong, and didn't bother to show any math.

Shirtless guy spelled it out. BSU can't get home ice. Would love to see BGDrew's math explaining how they can - using the actual 2015-16 tiebreakers as seen on wcha.com. They have changed since first year of "new" WCHA.
 
Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

As a BSU fan and seeing last weekend's results, I had come to the conclusion that there was no way BSU could get home ice. But then BGDrew's blog got me to hold onto a little bit of hope...... Now you all are ruining it.... :(

I jest, of course. ;) Thanks for clarifying what I already believed. BSU will end up either 5, 6 or 7.
 
Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

beaverhockeyfan said:
As a BSU fan and seeing last weekend's results, I had come to the conclusion that there was no way BSU could get home ice. But then BGDrew's blog got me to hold onto a little bit of hope...... Now you all are ruining it.... :(

I jest, of course. ;) Thanks for clarifying what I already believed. BSU will end up either 5, 6 or 7.
Click to expand...

I assure you all of us tech fans want to see you at 5
 
Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

beaverhockeyfan said:
As a BSU fan and seeing last weekend's results, I had come to the conclusion that there was no way BSU could get home ice. But then BGDrew's blog got me to hold onto a little bit of hope...... Now you all are ruining it.... :(

I jest, of course. ;) Thanks for clarifying what I already believed. BSU will end up either 5, 6 or 7.
Click to expand...

You're welcome, Millsy!

GFM
 
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