WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

[bigblue_dl]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

The only thing that matters is Mankato has the cup, and Tech has a chance at a share tomorrow.

 

[x1g27s]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

Not even staying awake until 0422 let me finish. Alas. http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2016/03/04/2015-16-final-weekend-playoff-branches/

In general: MSU succeeds when they keep pace; MTU succeeds in all other cases save a tie with BG. NMU-FSU is very close, including a significant chance to go to the E tiebreaker. BSU has a strong advantage on LSSU, and UAF has a slight advantage on UAA.

GFM <— off to work

There is no way NMU-FSU gets to the E tiebreaker, and there wasn't before last night either. Win % vs BSU settles it in favor of NMU (1-0-1 = .750 for NMU, 2-1-1 = 0.625 for FSU). This only can (or could have) come into play at 31 points, in which case LSSU ends at 24 points, assuring that BSU is #6 alone.

 

[gfmorris]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

There is no way NMU-FSU gets to the E tiebreaker, and there wasn't before last night either. Win % vs BSU settles it in favor of NMU (1-0-1 = .750 for NMU, 2-1-1 = 0.625 for FSU). This only can (or could have) come into play at 31 points, in which case LSSU ends at 24 points, assuring that BSU is #6 alone.

No, we get there (with a caveat) at 30 points with each team 13-10-5: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2016/03/05/2015-16-wcha-playoffs-race-the-final-81-results/

As I understand it, you don't go past your own tie to break the other ties. I am confirming that with the league. IF you keep on going, you're right — the Beavers are 6th since LSSU is at 24 points, and NMU gets home ice.

I'm going to wait on the league's response before publishing odds.

GFM

 

[davyd83]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

Here is what I have for tonight's playoff seeding possibilities.

Tech & Mankato will be the 1 & 2 seeds. A point gained by the Mavs or lost by Tech gives Minn St the top seed
Bowling Green is locked in at 3
Ferris and NMU will be the 4 & 5 seeds and will meet next week. An NMU win tonight coupled will a Ferris loss or tie puts that series in Marquette. Anything else sends them to Big Rapids.
Bemidji and Lake State are 6 & 7. An LSSU win tonight coupled with a Bemidji loss puts LSSU at 6. Anything else means Bemidji is 6 and travels to Bowling Green next week.
In Alaska, an Anchorage win sends the Seawolves to the playoffs. A Fairbanks win or tie puts the 'Nooks in the playoffs.
Huntsville is locked in to the 10 slot.

I'm sure the WCHA would like to see Mankato with the top seed. Far more cost effective to get and Alaska team to Mankato than to Tech. Bemidji-Tech and LSSU/BG would also be the best matchups. Bemidji at BG is not so good travelwise. NMU/Ferris is easy travel, but whomever has home ice would seem to have an edge. with NMU having the 100' wide Olympic sheet vs the pinball machine known as Ewigleben.

Great to see another WCHA season come down to the final night for #1, home ice and the final playoff berth!

 

[gfmorris]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

I've updated my post — at the bottom, I show my work. I know that a lot of us are making sure that we figure this out.

GFM

 

[davyd83]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

No, we get there (with a caveat) at 30 points with each team 13-10-5: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2016/03/05/2015-16-wcha-playoffs-race-the-final-81-results/

As I understand it, you don't go past your own tie to break the other ties. I am confirming that with the league. IF you keep on going, you're right — the Beavers are 6th since LSSU is at 24 points, and NMU gets home ice.

I'm going to wait on the league's response before publishing odds.

GFM

If Ferris loses and NMU ties, Ferris gets home ice by virtue of 13 wins vs 12. Here is another interesting thought, why does the league not have playoff scenarios on its site?

 

[JohnsonsJerseys]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

Taking a break from all the who goes where, if this then that scenarios. After watching the NMU v Tech game last night I came to the following conclusion:

Until a player with the last name of "Hello Kitty" plays for the Wildcats, Casey Purpur gets the nod for best name to ever don an NMU sweater (tied with Scott Purpur of course). Runners up were the three Hansons and Mike Bolton (who was cool until that no talent @-$-$ clown started winning Grammies) with Bill Zaniboni taking the "oh so close" award.

It should be a fun last night in the WCHA and once again we won't know who plays who next weekend until some time Sunday in the Eastern time zone.

Ryan J

 

[davyd83]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

Taking a break from all the who goes where, if this then that scenarios. After watching the NMU v Tech game last night I came to the following conclusion:

Until a player with the last name of "Hello Kitty" plays for the Wildcats, Casey Purpur gets the nod for best name to ever don an NMU sweater (tied with Scott Purpur of course). Runners up were the three Hansons and Mike Bolton (who was cool until that no talent @-$-$ clown started winning Grammies) with Bill Zaniboni taking the "oh so close" award.

It should be a fun last night in the WCHA and once again we won't know who plays who next weekend until some time Sunday in the Eastern time zone.

Ryan J

For Tech, the best name would have to be Skeet Flake.

 

[x1g27s]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

No, we get there (with a caveat) at 30 points with each team 13-10-5: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2016/03/05/2015-16-wcha-playoffs-race-the-final-81-results/

As I understand it, you don't go past your own tie to break the other ties. I am confirming that with the league. IF you keep on going, you're right — the Beavers are 6th since LSSU is at 24 points, and NMU gets home ice.

I'm going to wait on the league's response before publishing odds.

GFM

There is nothing in the D tiebreaker to indicate you don't go past your own tie. To the contrary, the fact that it explicitly spells out which tie gets broken first in the event that multiple ties depend on each other 100% CONFIRMS that you would go past your own tie. No E tiebreaker possible, QED.

 

[gfmorris]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

There is nothing in the D tiebreaker to indicate you don't go past your own tie. To the contrary, the fact that it explicitly spells out which tie gets broken first in the event that multiple ties depend on each other 100% CONFIRMS that you would go past your own tie. No E tiebreaker possible, QED.

You are correct, and I am in error. I verified this with the league. I'm not quite sure how I got this in my head. Thanks for pushing back on it!

If Ferris loses and NMU ties, Ferris gets home ice by virtue of 13 wins vs 12. Here is another interesting thought, why does the league not have playoff scenarios on its site?

I don't know, but I'm working on mine right now. I think that it's pretty difficult to nail those down until the last day — if BGSU had beaten UAH last night, there are probably combinations of how tonight could go. BGSU being locked into 3rd brings it down to 81, but even that's still a mess. There are ten combinations for the final standings: five root ones with two variations on each depending on the UAF-UAA result.

Still grinding ...

GFM

 

[AKSWF]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

Here is another interesting thought, why does the league not have playoff scenarios on its site?

The oldWCHA.com had its tiebreakers underneath the standings or the head-to-head standings.

 

[gfmorris]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

The oldWCHA.com had its tiebreakers underneath the standings or the head-to-head standings.

I think that Dave is talking about the stuff that you see during the final few weeks of an NFL season, but the fun is that hockey results aren't binary. If they were, there'd only be 16 possibilities tonight; instead, there are 81.

I am done updating http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2016/03/05/2015-16-wcha-playoffs-race-the-final-81-results/. Now I have to go to work, where my boss knows that I want to watch hockey ...

GFM

 

[JohnsonsJerseys]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

For Tech, the best name would have to be Skeet Flake.

I would give honorable mention to:
Bottoms, Payne, Martini, Ram, Savage and a couple Storms
Ironically, Tech also had a Derek Kitti

Ryan J

 

[bueller]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

I think Ferris' is currently playing: Ryker Killins.

 

[Twitch Boy]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

No love for Bryce Cockburn of NMU?

Or Derek Punches of Wayne State/Cornell?

 

[LSSULaker889294]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

Michael Bitzer is probably loved by many Michigan Tech fans right now.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

Michael Bitzer is probably loved by many Michigan Tech fans right now.

A little. He did blank us in Bemidji a couple weeks ago - if we had won that, all other results being the same, we would be outright champs. So I wouldn't say "loved".

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

A little. He did blank us in Bemidji a couple weeks ago - if we had won that, all other results being the same, we would be outright champs. So I wouldn't say "loved".

I'm not afraid...I'll say it. I love Michael Bitzer! That little spud help Michigan Tech bring home Big Jim's cup.

 

[gfmorris]

Re: WCHA 2015-16: So here's what we think that we know...

Congrats to Tech, my second-favorite WCHA team.

I'll be gone for a while. This UAH season really beat me up.

GFM

 

[Squarebanks]

Congrats to Tech, my second-favorite WCHA team.

I'll be gone for a while. This UAH season really beat me up.

GFM

I thought you loved us.