Way To Early 2022 NCAA Field

[PrezdeJohnson09]

They have fixed the Hobart game and the PWR should be accurate, so here's what we're looking at right now. For transparency, the auto-bid in each conference is currently given to the highest remaining seed in that conference tournament:

EDIT: Flipped Geneseo, Babson, and Hobart around, which makes an under 500 mile trip for Colby in Round 1

CCC: UNE (10)
MASCAC: Plymouth State (20)
MIAC: Augsburg (3)
NCHA: Adrian (1)
NEHC: Babson (6)
NESCAC: Colby (T-21)
SUNYAC: Geneseo (4)
UCHC: Utica (2)

AL:
St. Norbert (5)
Hobart (7)
Elmira (8)
Wilkes (9)


First Round:

Wilkes @ Elmira
Colby @ Babson
Plymouth State @ Geneseo
UNE @ Hobart

Quarterfinal:

Wilkes/Elmira @ Adrian
Colby/Babson @ Plymouth State/Geneseo
UNE/Hobart @ Utica
St. Norbert @ Augsburg

Remember. for this one year only, the rule is 600 miles and not 500. I don't know if that would change anything as I have not done any mileage calculations, but just want everyone to be on the same page here.

 

[Tom Coughlin]

Remember. for this one year only, the rule is 600 miles and not 500. I don't know if that would change anything as I have not done any mileage calculations, but just want everyone to be on the same page here.

Could that set up a "group of death" scenario with the winner of SNC and Augsburg traveling to Adrian in the QF?

 

[Tom Coughlin]

Could that set up a "group of death" scenario with the winner of SNC and Augsburg traveling to Adrian in the QF?

Nope.
[TABLE="border: 0, cellpadding: 2, cellspacing: 0"]
[TR]
[TD]Results[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [TABLE="border: 0, cellpadding: 2, cellspacing: 0"]
[TR]
[TD]From: ADRIAN COLLEGE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]To: AUGSBURG COLLEGE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miles: 636.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Pioneer247]

Remember. for this one year only, the rule is 600 miles and not 500. I don't know if that would change anything as I have not done any mileage calculations, but just want everyone to be on the same page here.

It wouldn't change anything as of the current rankings, but this is good, because Colby, who is honestly the only one in the East who could've caused issues mileage wise, could go to Hobart (534) or Geneseo (584) if needed.

 

[altazo]

Nope. [TABLE="border: 0, cellpadding: 2, cellspacing: 0"]
[TR]
[TD]Results[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [TABLE="border: 0, cellpadding: 2, cellspacing: 0"]
[TR]
[TD]From: ADRIAN COLLEGE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]To: AUGSBURG COLLEGE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miles: 636.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

OK OK, but what’s the distance from Augsburg TO Adrian (winky emoji)

 

[IceKnights20]

So it seems the teams most “at risk” of being knocked out by an upset are Wilkes, Elmira, and Babson.

There are only 3 conferences where an upset knocks someone out at this point:
- MIAC with an Augsburg loss
- NEHC with a Babson loss
- SUNYAC with a Geneseo loss

CCC, MASCA, and NESCAC whoever wins is in.

Wilkes is probably out with a loss to Utica and a Stevens Point win even without any other upsets. They are .0124 apart in RPI and a loss has been roughly a .0150 drop.

Hobart seems to be safe as a Babson loss would likely flip those 2 in PWR.

The “safe” list:
- Adrian (they could probably lose 4-5 more times and still be in)
- Augsburg
​​​​​​- Utica
​​​​​​- Geneseo
- St Norbert
​​​​​​- Hobart

 

[Tom Coughlin]

Hobart would need at least one of Augsburg/Utica/Geneseo to get an AQ to get in? Assuming each team has a 50% chance to get an AQ (keep in mind Augsburg and Geneseo are still in the semis), that would put Hobart's chances at just under 90%. That sounds pretty safe.

 

[Pioneer247]

So it seems the teams most “at risk” of being knocked out by an upset are Wilkes, Elmira, and Babson.

There are only 3 conferences where an upset knocks someone out at this point:
- MIAC with an Augsburg loss
- NEHC with a Babson loss
- SUNYAC with a Geneseo loss

CCC, MASCA, and NESCAC whoever wins is in.

Wilkes is probably out with a loss to Utica and a Stevens Point win even without any other upsets. They are .0124 apart in RPI and a loss has been roughly a .0150 drop.

Hobart seems to be safe as a Babson loss would likely flip those 2 in PWR.

The “safe” list:
- Adrian (they could probably lose 4-5 more times and still be in)
- Augsburg
​​​​​​- Utica
​​​​​​- Geneseo
- St Norbert
​​​​​​- Hobart

Stevens Point jumping in over Wilkes (and no other major changes) would create a very interesting, and for teams especially on the East (Utica and Geneseo), a more favorable set of matchups:

First Round:
UW-Stevens Point @ St. Norbert
Elmira @ Hobart
Colby @ UNE
Plymouth State @ Babson

Quarterfinals:
UW-Stevens Point/St. Norbert @ Augsburg
Elmira/Hobart @ Adrian
Colby/UNE @ Utica
Plymouth State/Babson @ Geneseo

 

[spwood]

Stevens Point jumping in over Wilkes (and no other major changes) would create a very interesting, and for teams especially on the East (Utica and Geneseo), a more favorable set of matchups:

First Round:
UW-Stevens Point @ St. Norbert
Elmira @ Hobart
Colby @ UNE
Plymouth State @ Babson

Quarterfinals:
UW-Stevens Point/St. Norbert @ Augsburg
Elmira/Hobart @ Adrian
Colby/UNE @ Utica
Plymouth State/Babson @ Geneseo

Would the NCAA, under this scenario, protect sending two western teams to the Phinal Phour by having the four western teams play in the QF? (Stevens Point @ Adrian and St. Norbert @ Augsburg)? Utica would be the only eastern team to have a bye into the QF...

 

[Tom Coughlin]

Would the NCAA, under this scenario, protect sending two western teams to the Phinal Phour by having the four western teams play in the QF? (Stevens Point @ Adrian and St. Norbert @ Augsburg)? Utica would be the only eastern team to have a bye into the QF...

This scenario has happened before with the exact same matchups (except I believe home and away was flipped in both cases). 2016 or 2017?

 

[Pioneer247]

Would the NCAA, under this scenario, protect sending two western teams to the Phinal Phour by having the four western teams play in the QF? (Stevens Point @ Adrian and St. Norbert @ Augsburg)? Utica would be the only eastern team to have a bye into the QF...

You could do this, but, with an 8-4 Split, putting all four West teams directly into a QF would leave no byes for Eastern teams, so it becomes a scenario of do you prioritize the fact that Utica (currently PW #2) has played themselves into a position to get a first-round bye or do you prioritize getting two teams from the West into the Frozen Four?

 

[Tom Coughlin]

You could do this, but, with an 8-4 Split, putting all four West teams directly into a QF would leave no byes for Eastern teams, so it becomes a scenario of do you prioritize the fact that Utica (currently PW #2) has played themselves into a position to get a first-round bye or do you prioritize getting two teams from the West into the Frozen Four?

It would probably be more fair to have UWSP @ SNC in the opening round, with the winner traveling to Augsburg in the quarterfinals, and have two East teams play for the right to travel to Adrian.

 

[spwood]

It would probably be more fair to have UWSP @ SNC in the opening round, with the winner traveling to Augsburg in the quarterfinals, and have two East teams play for the right to travel to Adrian.

Yes, but we aren’t talking about fair, we’re talking about the NCAA!

 

[Pioneer247]

Yes, but we aren’t talking about fair, we’re talking about the NCAA!

I agree with you on that sentiment. If the West teams were grouped higher together at the top, you could probably justify it, but you have a scenario where you can most likely get 2 East and 2 West schools and keep some kind of bracket integrity, and have the quarterfinals be 1-8, 2-6, 3-5 and 4-7 in terms of PWR, I think that's the way you go

 

[Fishman'81]

It wouldn't change anything as of the current rankings, but this is good, because Colby, who is honestly the only one in the East who could've caused issues mileage wise, could go to Hobart (534) or Geneseo (584) if needed.

Colby (#!9 PW) has no business even being in the discussion at this point.

But it is, and that's an issue involving logic.

 

[altazo]

Both Colby and Trinity would be worthy participants in the NCAA tournament. After all, one of them will be the NESCAC playoff champion.

 

[JSicedog]

Both Colby and Trinity would be worthy participants in the NCAA tournament. After all, one of them will be the NESCAC playoff champion.

How would you explain that to someone like Stevens Point who could very well win their conference and still not make the tournament

 

[altazo]

How would you explain that to someone like Stevens Point who could very well win their conference and still not make the tournament

Great question! The folks over at Point know the deal, they’ve won several National championships after all and don’t want anything just handed to them. Next year the WIAC will have an AQ.

If Point is left out this season, I don’t believe they will blame Colby or Trinity, but rather, there will be some introspection as to what went wrong in losses to St Scholastica and UW Superior, and a terrible tie with Concordia, Wi.

edit: and the exact scenario you described has happened to Eau Claire on at least one occasion. They knew the deal when the left the NCHA to play in a conference that thus far does not meet the criteria for an AQ. They still did OK in their last year in the NCHA in 2013. Remember that D3 Frozen Four?

 

[Quasi Hatrack]

Great question! The folks over at Point know the deal, they’ve won several National championships after all and don’t want anything just handed to them. Next year the WIAC will have an AQ.

If Point is left out this season, I don’t believe they will blame Colby or Trinity, but rather, there will be some introspection as to what went wrong in losses to St Scholastica and UW Superior, and a terrible tie with Concordia, Wi.

edit: and the exact scenario you described has happened to Eau Claire on at least one occasion. They knew the deal when the left the NCHA to play in a conference that thus far does not meet the criteria for an AQ. They still did OK in their last year in the NCHA in 2013. Remember that D3 Frozen Four?

Yep, we know the deal and it's nobody's fault but our own if we miss out by a slot or two. The Pointers are a VERY young team that struggled in the early season. I've been impressed at how good they've gotten since Christmas break. Turn around a couple of those losses (St. Scholastica? wtf?) and we wouldn't be obsessively watching what's going on in half of the eastern tournaments. Hell, just win the overtime game at Augsburg and we'd probably be safe. Also, with the way the pairwise works, it would have been nice if Eau Claire hadn't completely sucked in the first half.

 

[JSicedog]

Great question! The folks over at Point know the deal, they’ve won several National championships after all and don’t want anything just handed to them. Next year the WIAC will have an AQ.

If Point is left out this season, I don’t believe they will blame Colby or Trinity, but rather, there will be some introspection as to what went wrong in losses to St Scholastica and UW Superior, and a terrible tie with Concordia, Wi.

edit: and the exact scenario you described has happened to Eau Claire on at least one occasion. They knew the deal when the left the NCHA to play in a conference that thus far does not meet the criteria for an AQ. They still did OK in their last year in the NCHA in 2013. Remember that D3 Frozen Four?

Yes and as Utica fans we are aware of the deal as well. It still doesn't make it fair and just. Because "Point knows the deal and they don't want anything handed to them" isn't a realistic answer.

Point loses to Scholastica (39) and Superior (34), Trinity loses to Conn College (65), Amherst (45) and Hamilton (37) twice, Colby loses to Amherst (45), Hamilton (37), Williams (38).

How is that a level playing field?