US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

[Kepler]

ISW report 3/16.

March 16, 5:30 pm ET

Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat losses in Ukraine, including the possible death of the commander of the 150th Motor Rifle Division near Mariupol.Russian efforts to deploy forces from Armenia, its proxy states in Georgia, and reserve units in the Eastern Military District will not provide Russian forces around Kyiv with the combat power necessary to complete the encirclement of the city in the near term. Russian forces made limited, unsuccessful attacks northwest of Kyiv and did not conduct offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine, toward Kharkiv, or toward Mykolayiv. Russian forces did make limited territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast and around Mariupol and continued to target civilian infrastructure in the city. Russian forces will likely continue to reduce the Mariupol pocket in the coming days, but Russian forces likely remain unable to conduct simultaneous attacks along multiple axes of advance.

Key Takeaways

• Russia is deploying reserves from Armenia and South Ossetia and cohering new battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from the remnants of units lost early in the invasion. These reinforcements will likely face equal or greater command and logistics difficulties to current frontline Russian units.
• President Zelensky created a new joint military-civilian headquarters responsible for the defense of Kyiv on March 15.
• Russian forces conducted several failed attacks northwest of Kyiv and no offensive operations northeast of Kyiv on March 16.
• Russian forces continue to shell civilian areas of Kharkiv, but will be unlikely to force the city to surrender without encircling it—which Russian forces appear unable to achieve.
• Russian forces continued to reduce the Mariupol pocket on March 16. Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in the city, targeting refugees and civilian infrastructure.
• Ukrainian Forces claimed to have killed the commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army’s 150th Motor Rifle Division near Mariupol on March 15. If confirmed, Miyaev would be the fourth Russian general officer killed in Ukraine; his death would be a major blow to the 150th Motor Rifle Division, Russia’s principal maneuver unit in Donbas.
• Russian warships shelled areas of Odesa Oblast on March 16 but Russian Naval Infantry remain unlikely to conduct an unsupported amphibious landing.

Russia is increasingly pulling forces from its international bases and redeploying damaged units that were rotated out early in the invasion of Ukraine to replace mounting casualties. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are deploying additional Eastern Military District (EMD) reserves to Ukraine as of March 16.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian command “refused” to deploy elements of the 5th Combined Arms Army (CAA) to the Kyiv advance “due to heavy losses in the south.”[2] It is unclear if the Ukrainian General Staff means Ukraine intercepted a request by Russian commanders around Kyiv for reinforcements from the 5th CAA that was denied, or if they are only assessing that Russian casualties in the south are draining reinforcements initially intended for Kyiv. Social media users observed elements of Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army based in Russia‘s proxy republic in Georgia, South Ossetia, redeploying in likely transit to Ukraine on March 15.[3] Russia has already pulled forces from its base in Armenia and will likely soon redeploy forces from its base in Tajikistan. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russia is forming additional battalion tactical groups (BTGs) by consolidating units that suffered losses in the first 10 days of the Russian invasion and graduating cadets from military higher education early to replace officer losses.[4] Russian forces will likely face further difficulties integrating these units into its command and logistics structures.

Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:

• Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
• Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
  • Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk Oblast;
• Supporting effort 2—Mariupol and Donetsk Oblast; and
• Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances westward.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Fourth general. Fuck that's not how you win a war

 

[Kepler]

Something happening in Belarus.

Massive explosions in a number of cities in #Belarus. Residents of Baranavichy, Luninets, Stolin, Hantsavichy, Slutsk, Kletsk and other cities reported sounds similar to explosions. We are trying to understand what happened

An opposition politician alluded to the possibility of a coup. All seems wildly speculative right now. For all we know it's just explosions from shelling near the border being heard, but little by little more reputable outlets are picking up the story.

It's fascinating to watch the story spread in real time. Saw it on reddit, then a few sketchy clickbait sites, then some small country semi-weird news outlets, and now starting to roll into the larger aggregators and getting fact-checked by volunteers. The majors will be the last to know LOL.

 

[Kepler]

Fourth general. Fuck that's not how you win a war

To give an idea of how Suboptimal that is for them, 40 American generals died during the entirety of WW2.

 

[Kepler]

Anonymous just hacked thousands of security cameras in Russia and is feeding back news about Russian casualties onto their displays (hopefully in Russian).

 

[MichVandal]

Watching the news, and seeing how russia is focusing on civilian deaths... reminds me of how most did strategic bombing in WWII. Which had the opposite effect of the intention- the thinking was to demoralize the public, and it consistently hardened them to fight harder. Happened in London and Berlin.

One further note- the connection with the Battle of Britain. If you will recall, the Royal Air Force was close to breaking when Germany changed its focus from military to civilian targets. The second effect (along with the above) was to keep the small resources safe enough to fight. The RAF was smaller than the Luftwaffe, yet managed to handily defeat them.

Maybe I'm seeing this wrong, but russia is not paying much attention to the parts of Ukraine that is able to fight back. Who is turning out to be a lot more effective than anyone anticipated. Very familiar story.

And I've seen more than one report that russian resources are being drained very quickly- one former US general calculates that russia has the means to fight for just under two more weeks, and they will have a serious crisis.

 

[rufus]

Mass shelling is the only thing they can do. Its all they've done in every battle they've fought since Afghanistan.

Reduce the target into rubble until they finally give in. All they have is a hammer. And they're quickly running out of that.

 

[MichVandal]

Mass shelling is the only thing they can do. Its all they've done in every battle they've fought since Afghanistan.

Reduce the target into rubble until they finally give in. All they have is a hammer. And they're quickly running out of that.

If that's the case, their military school has some very bad historians. It's never worked.

 

[Steffek]

A cartoon? Seriously? That's the same type of response I get from the Dale Gribble Trump supporters also.

Of course Republicans pose more of threat to this nation than Liberals, but that doesn't justify the far-left's ridiculousness, or complete lack of common sense; nor should it prohibit rational people from calling it out.
Then again, people aren't rational in an echo-chamber.

But lemme guess, people here have also discussed a future 'civil war'. Correct? Just like the Yee Hawdists do on college football forums. lol
Meanwhile, middle America is left stranded while you folks "Own the Conservatives" or "Own the Libs".

Sweet Jesus.

 

[Steffek]

While on the topic of partisan hackery, let's do the opposite. This is a fine independent analysis of what the Ukrainians are actually up against.

 

[MichVandal]

A cartoon? Seriously? That's the same type of response I get from the Dale Gribble Trump supporters also.

Of course Republicans pose more of threat to this nation than Liberals, but that doesn't justify the far-left's ridiculousness, or complete lack of common sense; nor should it prohibit rational people from calling it out.
Then again, people aren't rational in an echo-chamber.

But lemme guess, people here have also discussed a future 'civil war'. Correct? Just like the Yee Hawdists do on college football forums. lol
Meanwhile, middle America is left stranded while you folks "Own the Conservatives" or "Own the Libs".

Sweet Jesus.

Because it's ridiculous to provide healthcare for all? Or there's no common sense to preserve the world? Irrational to make sure people have a wage that they can actually live on?

What is it, specifically, that makes the US far left so bad? I'm not aware that they are calling for all out communism. European socialism, sure.

The far right want to kill people and eliminate democracy. What of the US far left is anywhere near that?

 

[rufus]

Because it's ridiculous to provide healthcare for all? Or there's no common sense to preserve the world? Irrational to make sure people have a wage that they can actually live on?

What is it, specifically, that makes the US far left so bad? I'm not aware that they are calling for all out communism. European socialism, sure.

The far right want to kill people and eliminate democracy. What of the US far left is anywhere near that?

Bothsides, dude.

You're completely disregarding the common sense mainstream appeal of the wisdom of the average American mid-westerner. As Steffek claims to be. Only their opinion on any matter is a legitimate one. The rest of you are all just partisan hacks.

It's almost like a Hovey or Sic sockpuppet.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

A cartoon? Seriously? That's the same type of response I get from the Dale Gribble Trump supporters also.

Of course Republicans pose more of threat to this nation than Liberals, but that doesn't justify the far-left's ridiculousness, or complete lack of common sense; nor should it prohibit rational people from calling it out.
Then again, people aren't rational in an echo-chamber.

But lemme guess, people here have also discussed a future 'civil war'. Correct? Just like the Yee Hawdists do on college football forums. lol
Meanwhile, middle America is left stranded while you folks "Own the Conservatives" or "Own the Libs".

Sweet Jesus.

Middle America. You're referring to the CRT, won't get vaccinated middle? Or, maybe the Manchin middle? Neither of which is middle. The overton window has moved so far right you don't know where the middle is anymore.

We've already went passed the line of no return with the planet. What's next before you wake up?

 

[psych]

A cartoon? Seriously? That's the same type of response I get from the Dale Gribble Trump supporters also.

Of course Republicans pose more of threat to this nation than Liberals, but that doesn't justify the far-left's ridiculousness, or complete lack of common sense; nor should it prohibit rational people from calling it out.
Then again, people aren't rational in an echo-chamber.

But lemme guess, people here have also discussed a future 'civil war'. Correct? Just like the Yee Hawdists do on college football forums. lol
Meanwhile, middle America is left stranded while you folks "Own the Conservatives" or "Own the Libs".

Sweet Jesus.

Your observation that this place is an echo chamber is misguided. I think most of us agree on some overarching themes, sure, but the methods to get there vary wildly, and I’ve spent plenty of posts on calling people a—holes. Isn’t that last part the most important anyways? Not the calling people a—holes, but the real-world process that unfolds when methods are changed, like expanding the Supreme Court, and the effects that’d have on our political system. So, since the disagreement in process between liberals isn’t the problem for you, meaning an overarching theme the far left holds is an affront to your views, which theme is it?
Middle America? The place where I’ve lived my entire life? I’ll take the coastal liberals who vote to enlarge the safety net, cut taxes on the rich in a somewhat enforceable way (except for the SALT deduction, another disagreement on here), and expand/transform clean energy as quickly as possible to save our planet, over the Middle American politicians who vote regularly to do the opposite. Yeah, a lot of the coastal liberals appear to be, and embrace being, smug a—holes like Kepler, but it doesn’t mean they’re wrong.

 

[Kepler]

Middle America is left stranded.

Jesus fuck.

Middle America is the problem.

 

[Kepler]

Yeah, a lot of the coastal liberals appear to be, and embrace being, smug a—holes like Kepler, but it doesn’t mean they’re wrong.

Well thank you hey wait a min---

Given the alternative between avuncular and evil vs elitist and good... And, anyway, it's a false dichotomy, because Dump is the smuggest most personally vile as-shole on the planet and the dopes still hung on his tip.

The choice is yours. Would you rather eat cat food at the same table with Republicans while they eat caviar, or eat the same porterhouse as I but in another room so I don't have to listen to you talk about crops and trucks and your iron age fables?

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Jesus fuck.

Middle America is the problem.

Yep.

 

[Swansong]

Well thank you hey wait a min---

Given the alternative between avuncular and evil vs elitist and good... And, anyway, it's a false dichotomy, because Dump is the smuggest most personally vile as-shole on the planet and the dopes still hung on his tip.

The choice is yours. Would you rather eat cat food at the same table with Republicans while they eat caviar, or eat the same porterhouse as I but in another room so I don't have to listen to you talk about crops and trucks and your iron age fables?

So... equal but separate?



I kid I kid

 

[SonofSouthie]

Never heard of these before. Prob gonna have to subscribe to Soldier of Fortune.

The U.S. will send 100 Switchblade drones to Ukraine as part of the Biden administration’s new $800 million weapons package, Texas Rep. Mike McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told POLITICO.
The inclusion of the “tactical” drones, which crash into their targets, represents a new phase of weaponry being sent to Ukraine by the U.S., which so far has shipped mostly anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. An administration official confirmed McCaul’s account that the U.S. is sending the Switchblade.
The Switchblade is a small, light drone that can loiter in the air for up to 30 minutes before being directed to its target by an operator on the ground, dozens of miles away. The drone is launched from a tube, like a mortar shell. Its real-time GPS guidance allows a service member in the field to fly it until the moment it crashes and explodes into whatever the target might be.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Shocking.