US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

[Jimjamesak]

It may be part of it, like in the video Kepler linked (btw Sam from Wendover is only 24) Russia, and the Soviet Union before it, is terrible at logistics when they’re off their rail network.

 

[Steffek]

Russian forces are almost certainly being led by politicians, not military men.

Anybody with an ounce of realistic expectation was likely brushed aside. Putin has surrounded himself in an echo chamber of servants.

Putin has out-KGB’d himself, and now he has no idea what to do other than double-down

 

[Kepler]

Per AJ:

No major Russian progress in north and northeast Ukraine: Pentagon


The United States does not believe Russian forces have made major progress in the north and northeast of Ukraine in the last few days, the Pentagon said.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said that Russian troops had taken the city of Kherson and were attempting to encircle Mariupol, but were not in control of it.

Kirby also said Russia’s move to longer-range attacks had increased civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. “More civilians are being killed and wounded,” he said, urging Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war.

 

[Kepler]

Russian forces are almost certainly being led by politicians, not military men.

Anybody with an ounce of realistic expectation was likely brushed aside. Putin has surrounded himself in an echo chamber of servants.

Putin has out-KGB’d himself, and now he has no idea what to do other than double-down

Agreed. It's the Political Officer (Ivan Putin) in charge, not Captain Ramius.

 

[Kepler]

March 7:

March 7, 3:00 PM EST

Russian forces are concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming 24-96 hours. The Russians are bringing up supplies and reinforcements as well as conducting artillery, air, and missile attacks to weaken defenses and intimidate defenders in advance of such an assault. It is too soon to gauge the likely effectiveness of any Russian attempt to complete the encirclement of Kyiv or to seize the city at this time. If Russian troops have been able to resupply, reorganize, and plan deliberate and coordinated simultaneous operations along the several axes of advance around and into the capital, they may be more successful in this operation than they have in previous undertakings. Operations near Kyiv in the past 72 hours have not offered enough evidence to evaluate that likelihood.

Russian troops in southern Ukraine continue to divide their efforts between attacks westward toward Mykolayiv and Odesa, attacks northward toward Zaporizhya, and attacks eastward toward Mariupol and Donbas. Failure to focus on any single line of advance has likely hindered Russian operations and will probably continue to do so. Russian troops in Kherson Oblast appear to be feeling their way around Mykolayiv, likely seeking to find a route across the Southern Bug River that would allow them to bypass Mykolayiv itself and resume their advance on Odesa. Those heading toward Zaporizhya currently lack the combat power likely necessary to encircle or take that large city. They could, however, set conditions for successful operations against Zaporizhya once reinforcements arrive following the fall of Mariupol and the opening of a wide land route westward from Donbas.

 

[bronconick]

I can't tell if that's some galaxy-brained sh--it or if you're onto something. If I'm putin, that question haunts the **** out of me. It's not like it wasn't known about the mud. Hundreds of articles were published detailing this back in like January and even early February. Putin had to have known about the mud. SOmeone had to. I just don't get it.

Everyone should've known about the mud. The Germans learned in 41-44 *from* the Russians and it's been mentioned by every historian over the last 75+ years. Apparently the KGB erased that history.

 

[Jimjamesak]

"You don't start wars over verbal agreements made before most of your soldiers were even born."

 

[geezer]

I probably shouldn’t be laughing but this has to be in the top ten quotes ever to appear in New York Times: “Olha Koba, a psychologist in Kyiv, said that “anger and hate in this situation is a normal reaction and important to validate.” But it is important to channel it into something useful, she said, such as making incendiary bombs out of empty bottles.”
(meirl)

 

[SonofSouthie]

The U.S. is expected to announce as early as Tuesday that it will ban imports of Russian oil, NBC News reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter.
This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

 

[SonofSouthie]

Found this on Bloomberg and was wondering why we're importing LNG from Russia when this country is the world's largest producer of natural gas?
The Biden administration will impose a ban on U.S. imports of Russian energy on Tuesday without the participation of its European allies, according to people familiar with the matter.
The ban will include Russian oil, liquefied natural gas and coal, according to two people, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Qualities? Though, LNG seems odd. But oil for sure it's because of the quality or Russian oil compared to WTI.

 

[aparch]

Qualities? Though, LNG seems odd. But oil for sure it's because of the quality or Russian oil compared to WTI.

^ This.

Every single politician whining about Keystone XL needs to put down the Fox talking point and realize that "extra" tar sand oil from Canada was gonna be shipped out of the US KXL or not.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

The U.S. is expected to announce as early as Tuesday that it will ban imports of Russian oil, NBC News reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter.
This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

As I understand it, it's not that simple.

Crude oil is different around the world. Therefore, how you refine crude oil into the various products, depends on where you buy the crude oil. You can't just substitute one crude oil supply with another, unless you have the capacity in the refining plants to handle the change of quantity in that particular crude oil (or have the proper plants at all). This is one of the reasons Europe just can't shut off Russia purchases and turn on/increase Middle East or US purchases.

 

[SonofSouthie]

GENEVA — The international scientific laboratory that is home to the world’s largest atom smasher says it is suspending Russia’s observer status and halting any new collaboration with Russia or its institutions “until further notice.”

The European Organization for Nuclear Research, known as CERN, said its 23 member states — all European, plus Israel — condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is one of seven associate member states, and Russia, like the United States, Japan and the European Union, has had observer status.

The CERN council made the decisions about Russia at a special meeting on Tuesday and expressed its support “to the many members of CERN’s Russian scientific community who reject this invasion.”

CERN is home to the Large Hadron Collider, the world’s largest particle accelerator.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

GENEVA — The international scientific laboratory that is home to the world’s largest atom smasher says it is suspending Russia’s observer status and halting any new collaboration with Russia or its institutions “until further notice.”

The European Organization for Nuclear Research, known as CERN, said its 23 member states — all European, plus Israel — condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is one of seven associate member states, and Russia, like the United States, Japan and the European Union, has had observer status.

The CERN council made the decisions about Russia at a special meeting on Tuesday and expressed its support “to the many members of CERN’s Russian scientific community who reject this invasion.”

CERN is home to the Large Hadron Collider, the world’s largest particle accelerator.

Come on. Atoms are just like Covid-19. They don't exist. Just another liberal conspiracy...

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

"You don't start wars over verbal agreements made before most of your soldiers were even born."

Great video. Does a better job of summing up what I've been trying to explain to friends, adding additional detail around those hazy "promises" in the early 90s that may or may not have been made.

 

[dxmnkd316]

^ This.

Every single politician whining about Keystone XL needs to put down the Fox talking point and realize that "extra" tar sand oil from Canada was gonna be shipped out of the US KXL or not.

Right. The thing is though, more supply is more supply. Kind of. It's complicated. But if Canada is pumping more shit oil, it's still going to impact global oil prices and downstream costs, just less so than if it were high quality Brent.

As I understand it, it's not that simple.

Crude oil is different around the world. Therefore, how you refine crude oil into the various products, depends on where you buy the crude oil. You can't just substitute one crude oil supply with another, unless you have the capacity in the refining plants to handle the change of quantity in that particular crude oil (or have the proper plants at all). This is one of the reasons Europe just can't shut off Russia purchases and turn on/increase Middle East or US purchases.

Yep. Supply chains built for commodity chemicals take (some, maybe a lot, maybe a little) time to adjust to changes in specs. Sometimes you just can't switch. It's ridiculously complicated and margins are generally very very thin per unit. So switching source of supply can obliterate those margins very quickly.

 

[Handyman]

I saw someone on Twitter make that point and quickly remind us that we're probably not seeing all Ukrainian losses due to the way the West seems to be consuming (and receiving) more pro-UA propaganda. Which makes sense. We preferentially seek it out. I don't know if we have an accurate picture of their losses (or Russia's for that matter). But generally, I still think it's incredible the numbers we are seeing.

While we can't trust everything we are hearing, the fact this is still going is all that truly matters. (as you know) I mean by now Russia should have beaten them into submission (leading to one way negotiations) or at least put the fear of God into them...instead Russia and Putin look like they need some Viagra.

 

[Kepler]

"You don't start wars over verbal agreements made before most of your soldiers were even born."

< The Levant has entered the chat. >

 

[Kepler]

GENEVA — The international scientific laboratory that is home to the world’s largest atom smasher says it is suspending Russia’s observer status and halting any new collaboration with Russia or its institutions “until further notice.”

The European Organization for Nuclear Research, known as CERN, said its 23 member states — all European, plus Israel — condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is one of seven associate member states, and Russia, like the United States, Japan and the European Union, has had observer status.

The CERN council made the decisions about Russia at a special meeting on Tuesday and expressed its support “to the many members of CERN’s Russian scientific community who reject this invasion.”

CERN is home to the Large Hadron Collider, the world’s largest particle accelerator.

I don't agree with this. The physicists are probably among the most anti-Putin people in Russia. Same for their university students studying abroad.

We're just punishing scientists and potential liberal leaders. It's dumb.

Send athletes home, whatevs, they're rockheads and most likely Righties. But don't attack the people who could be part of the rebuild someday.
I don't know what we do. The Plan seems 5to be to slow his tanks with the blood of Ukrainian civilians until his economy collapses and afterwards... I dunno... give Novgorad back to Kievan Rus and throw Moscow to the Tatars. Let's divide East and West Russia for 50 years. It seems to have calmed the Krauts down.