Unrest in Egypt

[Patman]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

And I didn't see it posted here yet, but the Bahrain Grand Prix has been called off.

I find this all so strange that its cascading like this... I can't think of any other phenomena like this in chronicled history... but then again, I suppose it takes an internet to cause such things... all dictatorships and the like are about perceptions of power and often power is a state of mind.

 

[Hopkinja]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

I find this all so strange that its cascading like this... I can't think of any other phenomena like this in chronicled history... but then again, I suppose it takes an internet to cause such things... all dictatorships and the like are about perceptions of power and often power is a state of mind.

Eastern Europe, 1989. Then it was television coming across the borders of Germany, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia.

Now it's the internet penetrating countries that are more isolated so that television can't easily get there..

 

[Proud2baLaker]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

China etc etc.

I saw a brief article somewhere last week that mentioned that there appeared to be some minor talk on the internet about some protests. But the Chinese government quickly shut down any sites that metioned it. I agree with you otherwise though. Its probably still a ways off over there.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

Eastern Europe, 1989. Then it was television coming across the borders of Germany, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia.....

i've always viewed that as a singular event - the fall of soviet communism, russia. one domino fell and pushed the rest.

here, this.. there is disconnect between the pieces (other than a stretched geography).

 

[Patman]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

i've always viewed that as a singular event - the fall of soviet communism, russia. one domino fell and pushed the rest.

here, this.. there is disconnect between the pieces (other than a stretched geography).

though, yes, he is right.... I didn't think about the fall of communism... here there isn't a particular ideological collapse... or support structure... the fall of communism was the fall of the Russian backing and reinforcement.... hard to say Tunisa and Egypt were reinforcing Lybia and other countries. Disappointing though that we aren't hearing anything going on in Syria... there's another scumbag that I wouldn't mind seeing gone.

 

[NMU8405]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

Reports that Libya is bombing the protesters from fighter jets and firing from helicopters. Two fighter pilots flew to Malta and are seeking political asylum for refusing to bomb their own people.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

Reports that Libya is bombing the protesters from fighter jets and firing from helicopters. Two fighter pilots flew to Malta and are seeking political asylum for refusing to bomb their own people.

That...I...seriously I have no response to that

Patman,

Syria and Iran will be the last to go. (I dont count the Saudis...that will never happen nor would we allow it) It will take the combined overthrow of everyone else to get the people there to see what can happen. I think if you start hearing stuff out of Lebanon THEN those dominoes will fall.

In '89 I didn't understand how big of a deal everything was. (I was 9, I was more worried about playing Nintendo and playing baseball) Watching this from afar, seeing how just the tiniest spark has lit an entire Arab World revolt, I dunno it just makes me feel like for the first time this century actually matters for something other than the negatives we hear about every hour on the hour.

 

[SteveP]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

Watching this from afar, seeing how just the tiniest spark has lit an entire Arab World revolt, I dunno it just makes me feel like for the first time this century actually matters for something other than the negatives we hear about every hour on the hour.

Watching the fall of communism it was evident to most of us that the outcome would be good. I only wish the same could be said for what is transpiring today. These are very serious events that will likely have an impact (good or bad) long after I and many of us here are long gone.

 

[Patman]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

That...I...seriously I have no response to that

Patman,

Syria and Iran will be the last to go. (I dont count the Saudis...that will never happen nor would we allow it) It will take the combined overthrow of everyone else to get the people there to see what can happen. I think if you start hearing stuff out of Lebanon THEN those dominoes will fall.

In '89 I didn't understand how big of a deal everything was. (I was 9, I was more worried about playing Nintendo and playing baseball) Watching this from afar, seeing how just the tiniest spark has lit an entire Arab World revolt, I dunno it just makes me feel like for the first time this century actually matters for something other than the negatives we hear about every hour on the hour.

We don't want the Saudis falling... as bad as the leaders are the replacement would be a whole different level of worse. Actually, for me, I think the same goes for the Syrians... I can't imagine that something better will replace the Assads... though the thing about Arabs is that they tend to be overagressive when they buy into their own awesomeness so they're error prone when they do rule aggressively. (I know Assad is a Christian, I'm talking about their replacements).

I think it would take massive failures by Hez'ballah to cause problems internally for Syria... would require a lot of crack ups beforehand... like the democratisation of North Africa were it to happen.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

Watching the fall of communism it was evident to most of us that the outcome would be good. I only wish the same could be said for what is transpiring today. These are very serious events that will likely have an impact (good or bad) long after I and many of us here are long gone.

I don't think it will bad, but I totally admit I am being pie in the sky about it. I just don't see autocracies or despots taking all of these countries. Sure we may see one or two go hardcore but I still dont see Egypt or Tunisia doing that and as long as they don't it can act as a beacon to the other countries.

BTW, I think it can be argued that while the fall of Communist Russia was great for the world, many of the countries that became independent after have had it pretty bad since. It hasnt exactly been a Panacea in many of those countries especially places like the Balkans.

 

[SteveP]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

BTW, I think it can be argued that while the fall of Communist Russia was great for the world, many of the countries that became independent after have had it pretty bad since. It hasnt exactly been a Panacea in many of those countries especially places like the Balkans.

No argument here -- some of the countries have prospered - others continue to struggle even with their independence.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

No argument here -- some of the countries have prospered - others continue to struggle even with their independence.

success isn't inherent. it's not a "god given right". it is there for those who have the desire and drive to obtain it.

eastern europe was held under a thumb for half a century. many there had to learn the drive. the common set up for all under communism took away most of the free market teachings that we take for granted (though not the black market that those who could, took advantage of). i think the arab world now will not have that as an early roadblock, since they have market economies for the most part, but instead have suffered oppression from their government.

i was very encouraged by the 60minutes segment this week on tunisia. the people they spoke with seemed like it was the freedom that they wanted. freedom that comes with democracy - choosing leaders, but having leaders who need to heed what their voters say. i would like to think that this, if it is a strong majority who feel this way, will keep the brotherhood from taking control. religion, ANY religion, that has power and tries to impose their will on a country - by that very definition - takes away freedom. i would also like to think that at least half (women) would not enjoy an elected government that rules as the taliban did and call for restrictions on their movements in society. to try and impart islamic law into a constitution.

granted i am probably foolishly hopeful as a citizen of a country set up by people who were escaping this sort of thing and were insightful enough to separate the powers of religion from politics. but giving folks a taste of this freedom will encourage them to ask for more of it as they evolve as a country that governs themselves.

 

[Hopkinja]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

Things in Libya moving fast:
- Lots of ministers and ambassadors now siding with the protesters.
- Rumors that Qadaffi has fled the country to Venezuela
- Reports of Qadaffi loyal planes bombing the arsenals in Benghazi and elsewhere so the army won't have weapons to use against him.
- Helicopters strafing the protestors in Tripoli
- Also cordoning off whole (poor) neighborhoods - God only knows what the troops are doing there.

This might actually spread to Saudi Arabia. Because if Libya goes, it proves anything can happen.

 

[Tundra]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

Things in Libya moving fast:
This might actually spread to Saudi Arabia. Because if Libya goes, it proves anything can happen.

Yeah it's been amazing contagion. Fall of Dictators.
I noticed success/failure depends on what the military commanders do in these situations. 1989 soviet generals went against the coup/crack down in moscow while Chinese troops killed thousands at tiananmen square.

 

[huskyfan]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

Lebanon already had their coup. Hezbollah took over.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

Yeah it's been amazing contagion. Fall of Dictators.
I noticed success/failure depends on what the military commanders do in these situations. 1989 soviet generals went against the coup/crack down in moscow while Chinese troops killed thousands at tiananmen square.

The Chinese soldiers from Beijing refused their orders to shoot. The Chinese had the benefit of being able to bring in soldiers from Mongolia who would do the shooting. If China were the size of Egypt, things might be a little different.

 

[Tundra]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

The Chinese soldiers from Beijing refused their orders to shoot. The Chinese had the benefit of being able to bring in soldiers from Mongolia who would do the shooting. If China were the size of Egypt, things might be a little different.

Yeah true.

I see a problem with Libya going into civil war if the army had actually split.

http://topics.scmp.com/news/china-news-watch/article/No-regrets-for-defiant-Tiananmen-general

In May 1989, Major General Xu Qinxian , who was commander of the 38th Army - an elite and well-equipped battle group - refused a verbal order from General Li Laizhu, the deputy head of the Beijing military region, for his army to move into the capital.

Xu refused to act unless he saw a written order, according to the book, which was published in December

After Xu was ousted, the 38th Army participated in the clearing of the square, although it did not play a key role. Soldiers opened fire on the night of June 3, killing hundreds, maybe thousands, around Beijing.

tiananmen papers

As the protests in Beijing gathered strength in late April 1989, China's leaders convened an emergency meeting. "This is no ordinary student movement," pronounced Deng Xiaoping, the country's paramount leader. "This is a well-planned plot." And with that, the demonstrators were officially branded "counter-revolutionary," a treasonous label, and the stage was set for the massacre that would ensue six weeks later.

 

[bigmrg74]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

success isn't inherent. it's not a "god given right". it is there for those who have the desire and drive to obtain it.

eastern europe was held under a thumb for half a century. many there had to learn the drive. the common set up for all under communism took away most of the free market teachings that we take for granted (though not the black market that those who could, took advantage of). i think the arab world now will not have that as an early roadblock, since they have market economies for the most part, but instead have suffered oppression from their government.

i was very encouraged by the 60minutes segment this week on tunisia. the people they spoke with seemed like it was the freedom that they wanted. freedom that comes with democracy - choosing leaders, but having leaders who need to heed what their voters say. i would like to think that this, if it is a strong majority who feel this way, will keep the brotherhood from taking control. religion, ANY religion, that has power and tries to impose their will on a country - by that very definition - takes away freedom. i would also like to think that at least half (women) would not enjoy an elected government that rules as the taliban did and call for restrictions on their movements in society. to try and impart islamic law into a constitution.

granted i am probably foolishly hopeful as a citizen of a country set up by people who were escaping this sort of thing and were insightful enough to separate the powers of religion from politics. but giving folks a taste of this freedom will encourage them to ask for more of it as they evolve as a country that governs themselves.

Yeah, I read something earlier today that in Tunisia, there are some military units stationed at some of the legal brothels there. Now while they might have other motives as well there, the mere fact that they even had them and that Tunisia is far more Mediterranean than Mid East, should be a good start for them.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

Eastern Europe, 1989. Then it was television coming across the borders of Germany, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia.

Now it's the internet penetrating countries that are more isolated so that television can't easily get there..

And before that it was 1848, the year of liberal revolutions throughout Europe against authoritarian rule. And the techno-social key was the first generation to be mass educated (so they could be conscripted) started distributing their own newspapers across international borders.

Though a word of warning about 1848: they had bad leadership, bad parliamentary tactics, and plain old bad luck, and everyone of those fledgling democracies was stomped or fell apart on its own.

Any tool repressive governments wield can also be turned against them. That's as old as the Bible.

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: Unrest in Egypt

That...I...seriously I have no response to that

Nice Planet (c)