Heading into this year, I would have agreed with you, albeit their performance in the NCAAs has left a lot to be desired the last few seasons. Still, making hay in HE is WAY more than we can say over the last 10+ years.
This year has obviously been a bit more of a struggle for them, as evidenced by our sweeping them at home, and also a recent sweep (borderline trouncing) at the hands of a good PU team. Even still, Barr was able to get them re-motivated after the sweep by UNH, and they started out the year strong with an almost sweep of DU in Denver.
As has been discussed in various places, I think the league didn’t quite know how to predict the influence of the Canadian league players on college hockey, and that has positively impacted some programs, while also negatively impacting others. I’m not as well versed on what may be impacting Maines performance this year vs last, but whatever it may be, I imagine Barr will make the necessary adjustments heading into next year and will likely rebound.
The (I believe) small percentage chance he does not rebound has me hesitate for a minute to put him in the same class as Cignetti. I’ll hold judgement to see how next year goes for them (or if they go on an absolute tear this year and make a deep run in the NCAAs).
Yeah, I agree, I also suspect Barr will bounce back ... his programs have always done so in the past, and he will likely adjust to the new D-1 realities. The road to the top doesn't always follow a straight line, but he's been down that road before, and I'm pretty sure he hasn't lost the road map.
We will have to see how UNH responds, as it appears MS7 is leaning more heavily into the Canadian players with a few new recruits, and also cutting ties (maybe?) with older recruits that were agreed upon prior to the Canadian league change.
I’d be curious if, at seasons end, MS7 uses the Canadian recruits as a bit of a “lifeline” to buy some more time - basically saying this recruiting avenue is still new and we are building out a plan with them and jut need some more time. I’ll give it to him the recruiting has seemed to improve on paper a bit, and perhaps in spurts early in the season with on-ice success. Nonetheless, the “on paper” needs to more consistently translate to “on ice” sooner rather than later…
So, putting aside some of the emotion that creeps into the MS7 analysis for a moment ... objectively, the current recruiting strategy reminds me of the path trodden a decade or so ago by Normie at UMass Lowell, which centered primarily around older players, and also benefitted from the crown jewel that was Hellebuyck, when they made deep postseason runs. Unfortunately, I don't see a decade-long mediocrity like Souza having the gravitas to attract his own Hellebuyck, whereas Bazin got the real Hellebuyck in the door at the start of his tenure, before any deeply-rooted patterns had been established with his new program. So I see the ceiling of the UNH program under Souza as being a mid-table Bazin/Lowell ceiling tops, without a Hellebuyck peak, and with Bazin as a superior head coach to begin with.
In the past, not too far into the Bazin regime, I often wondered if Bazin might become the "next Umile", as the guy who came close repeatedly but never got over the hump. Ironically, here I am comparing the not-so-prime Bazin with Umile's actual successor. Bazin has clearly fallen off from his apex seasons at the start of his career, and his compressed period of success would have to be flattered in comparison to Umile's more extended run of contention ... but Bazin is still light years ahead of where Souza has been, and I can't even begin to imagine Souza outlasting Bazin in their respective posts. Anyway ...
... Souza will make his arguments, I totally agree he will lead with the "changing landscape" argument as you've outlined, it's not like there is much else to lead with otherwise. At least this time around, there is Jimmy T. in place to provide sober guidance to the AD f/k/a SB on MS7's contractual fate. For that reason alone, unless Souza can demonstrably turn the program around in a good way this year or next, I don't see another extension forthcoming. JMHO.
