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UNH Hockey 2023-2024 Season Thread - End Of The Cellar-Dweller Era??

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Chuck Murray said:
What a shame. That's not exactly "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" stuff with those four. BIG opportunity, lost.

Some teams apparently need to play under (oft-time self-inflicted) "backs to the wall" pressure to perform to their best. Maybe that's what we saw this past weekend in Durham? Likewise, knowing their tickets are likely (though not yet definitely) punched to both Boston and the NCAA's may explain UMaine's recent struggles? Motivation, desperation, or lack thereof. Personally, I'd like nothing more than a UMaine-UNH rematch, regardless of site, with all the marbles on the line. I bet MS7 does too ... if not, he's not the guy for the job, anyway.

Why don't we try on the WIS Competitive Matrix and see where we all think UNH currently stands?

Very good team: wins regularly against cupcakes, and wins more often than not against non-cupcakes
Good/decent team: also wins regularly against cupcakes, but only breaks even against non-cupcakes
=====UNH 2023/2024??=====
Mediocre team: wins more than it loses to cupcakes, and loses more than it wins against non-cupcakes
Cupcake team: breaks even (or worse) against other cupcakes, and upsets a select few non-cupcakes

I put UNH in between the two middle tiers right now. They've lost to too many "cupcakes" to be a solid "good/decent" team, and beaten a few too many very good/good teams to be a solid "mediocre" team at this point, which is where things were trending in recent weeks until the UMaine sweep. What's left over these next three weekends are "good/decent" (UMass), "very good" (BC) and "mediocre" (UMass Lowell). If you find a way to four (4) wins out of those six games, you're a 20 RS win program, and you're probably a solid "good/decent" team on the cusp of NCAA consideration, depending on a LOT of moving parts elsewhere. Unless you have plans to upset BC in one of those two games, it means you have to run the table on the other 4 games against "Flagship" and the Lanny Gare School of Advanced Suburban Criminal Studies.

Because putting all other things aside, barring an amazing run in Durham, and/or amazing collapse(s) elsewhere in the top tier of D-1 hockey as it now stands, UNH is gonna have to get to Boston AND then win the thing to qualify for the national tournament. A good 20 RS win team team could pull off the Boston pieces of the puzzle, but a sub-20 RS win program is just not consistently good enough to be able to pull it off.

Can it be done? After this weekend, yes, I think so. Will it be done? Head says "no", not consistently good enough.

The heart can be talked into all kinds of incredible ****, though, so I'm hoping the UNH kids put their heart into it consistently enough to pull off the amazing. Because someday, we're entitled to an "amazing" moment.

Why not us? Why not now?? (and this is the anatomy of wishing a pipe dream into existence by the sheer force of will) ...
Click to expand...
A man is not a plan but if they stay consistent with this weekend series, I’d put them in the good/decent categorie.
 
Chuck Murray said:
What a shame. That's not exactly "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" stuff with those four. BIG opportunity, lost.

Some teams apparently need to play under (oft-time self-inflicted) "backs to the wall" pressure to perform to their best. Maybe that's what we saw this past weekend in Durham? Likewise, knowing their tickets are likely (though not yet definitely) punched to both Boston and the NCAA's may explain UMaine's recent struggles? Motivation, desperation, or lack thereof. Personally, I'd like nothing more than a UMaine-UNH rematch, regardless of site, with all the marbles on the line. I bet MS7 does too ... if not, he's not the guy for the job, anyway.

Why don't we try on the WIS Competitive Matrix and see where we all think UNH currently stands?

Very good team: wins regularly against cupcakes, and wins more often than not against non-cupcakes
Good/decent team: also wins regularly against cupcakes, but only breaks even against non-cupcakes
=====UNH 2023/2024??=====
Mediocre team: wins more than it loses to cupcakes, and loses more than it wins against non-cupcakes
Cupcake team: breaks even (or worse) against other cupcakes, and upsets a select few non-cupcakes

I put UNH in between the two middle tiers right now. They've lost to too many "cupcakes" to be a solid "good/decent" team, and beaten a few too many very good/good teams to be a solid "mediocre" team at this point, which is where things were trending in recent weeks until the UMaine sweep. What's left over these next three weekends are "good/decent" (UMass), "very good" (BC) and "mediocre" (UMass Lowell). If you find a way to four (4) wins out of those six games, you're a 20 RS win program, and you're probably a solid "good/decent" team on the cusp of NCAA consideration, depending on a LOT of moving parts elsewhere. Unless you have plans to upset BC in one of those two games, it means you have to run the table on the other 4 games against "Flagship" and the Lanny Gare School of Advanced Suburban Criminal Studies.

Because putting all other things aside, barring an amazing run in Durham, and/or amazing collapse(s) elsewhere in the top tier of D-1 hockey as it now stands, UNH is gonna have to get to Boston AND then win the thing to qualify for the national tournament. A good 20 RS win team team could pull off the Boston pieces of the puzzle, but a sub-20 RS win program is just not consistently good enough to be able to pull it off.

Can it be done? After this weekend, yes, I think so. Will it be done? Head says "no", not consistently good enough.

The heart can be talked into all kinds of incredible ****, though, so I'm hoping the UNH kids put their heart into it consistently enough to pull off the amazing. Because someday, we're entitled to an "amazing" moment.

Why not us? Why not now?? (and this is the anatomy of wishing a pipe dream into existence by the sheer force of will) ...
Click to expand...

Ok, see you at Alfond!
 
e.cat said:
A man is not a plan but if they stay consistent with this weekend series, I?d put them in the good/decent categorie.
Click to expand...

BC 6-4 win over UMass-Flagship this afternoon just dumped the Minutemen down to 15th in PWR, only two PWR points ahead of UNH, making the upcoming weekend home and home series even more compelling.
 
deltabravo62 said:
https://hockeyeastonline.com/articl...-announces-supplemental-discipline-feb-19.php

Or as the Maine fan behind me put it "That's nothing compared to the cross check last night (Fitzgerald major), this league is so soft, it's not even hockey anymore"
Click to expand...

It seems to me that Hockey East is being a little less concerned on penalties like tripping, interference, holding that don't directly affect the play. They also aren't getting hung up on some of the behind the play stuff that goes on. At the same time they are being very sensitive to potential injuries. That includes 2 minute boarding penalties for it "sounds" hard checks and careful consideration of lots of 5 minute majors. The biggest example in my opinion is Gagne being cross checked. It wasn't a hard cross check, it wasn't to he head but the results were concerning. Going into the boards legs first at that speed is a good way to break a leg or blow out a joint. I think the 5 minute major was all about the potential danger in that play. Not sure I agree, just what I am observing during games.
 
JB said:
It seems to me that Hockey East is being a little less concerned on penalties like tripping, interference, holding that don't directly affect the play. They also aren't getting hung up on some of the behind the play stuff that goes on. At the same time they are being very sensitive to potential injuries. That includes 2 minute boarding penalties for it "sounds" hard checks and careful consideration of lots of 5 minute majors. The biggest example in my opinion is Gagne being cross checked. It wasn't a hard cross check, it wasn't to he head but the results were concerning. Going into the boards legs first at that speed is a good way to break a leg or blow out a joint. I think the 5 minute major was all about the potential danger in that play. Not sure I agree, just what I am observing during games.
Click to expand...
Spot on. Definitely an “Oh, crap” moment. It was really good seeing him get up. The Houle penalty? He knew he did it, was basically apologizing as it happened.
 
Everyone agrees that this is one of the biggest weekends for the Wildcats?

We're trying to catch the Minutemen and the Friars for the 4th seed in the HE Tourney. (Maybe even the 3 seed if Maine falls apart) Here's the remaining schedules of the teams we're trying to catch.

Umass 28 pts:

-2 games vs. UNH.
-2 games vs. Lowell
-2 games @ Maine
Friars 29 pts:
-1 game vs. Lowell
-2 games vs. Merrimack
-1 game vs. Hot Northeastern 1 game vs. BU

Now here are teams that we could realistically pass in the PWR and their remaining schedule.
St. Cloud:
- 2 games vs. Western Michigan
- 2 games vs. Denver
- 2 games vs. Duluth

Western Michigan:
- 2 games vs. St. Cloud
- 2 games vs. North Dakota
- 2 games vs. Miami (OH)

The point is that there is a path for the Wildcats to make it into the NCAA tournament still. Our remaining schedule has the chance to give us "Double xp" in the PWR.
- 2 games vs. Umass
- 2 games vs. BC
-2 games vs. Lowell

Plus the Hockey East tournament...

That being said, the Wildcats have to take care of business. Which means taking at least 3 points this weekend, 3 the next, and 6 the final week of the season. It seems like they found some momentum after this weekend's sweep of the Black Bears. But coach has to keep the urgency strong with the cats. If we can lock in the 4 seed for the HE tourney and beat some quality opponents in the HE tourney, we can sneak in as a back end NCAA tournament bid. Or we fall short down the stretch and are an early exit in the HE Tournament. What are your thoughts on this path?

Also I was at the game on Saturday and the energy of the crowd reminded me of the good ol days at the whit. I hope with what's at stake that the fans turn out and are loud every weekend from here on out.
​​​​​​​
 
In response to Ferrrao’s excellent summary on where we stand in HEA and NCAA prospects, it looks like NACHO may get five teams into the NCAA’s with HEA maybe down to four (BiG10 also four and the other three conference one each). But still lots of time for bubble teams to drop out.
 
Ferrrao1994 said:
Everyone agrees that this is one of the biggest weekends for the Wildcats?

We're trying to catch the Minutemen and the Friars for the 4th seed in the HE Tourney. (Maybe even the 3 seed if Maine falls apart) Here's the remaining schedules of the teams we're trying to catch.

Umass 28 pts:

-2 games vs. UNH.
-2 games vs. Lowell
-2 games @ Maine
Friars 29 pts:
-1 game vs. Lowell
-2 games vs. Merrimack
-1 game vs. Hot Northeastern 1 game vs. BU

Now here are teams that we could realistically pass in the PWR and their remaining schedule.
St. Cloud:
- 2 games vs. Western Michigan
- 2 games vs. Denver
- 2 games vs. Duluth

Western Michigan:
- 2 games vs. St. Cloud
- 2 games vs. North Dakota
- 2 games vs. Miami (OH)

The point is that there is a path for the Wildcats to make it into the NCAA tournament still. Our remaining schedule has the chance to give us "Double xp" in the PWR.
- 2 games vs. Umass
- 2 games vs. BC
-2 games vs. Lowell

Plus the Hockey East tournament...

That being said, the Wildcats have to take care of business. Which means taking at least 3 points this weekend, 3 the next, and 6 the final week of the season. It seems like they found some momentum after this weekend's sweep of the Black Bears. But coach has to keep the urgency strong with the cats. If we can lock in the 4 seed for the HE tourney and beat some quality opponents in the HE tourney, we can sneak in as a back end NCAA tournament bid. Or we fall short down the stretch and are an early exit in the HE Tournament. What are your thoughts on this path?

Also I was at the game on Saturday and the energy of the crowd reminded me of the good ol days at the whit. I hope with what's at stake that the fans turn out and are loud every weekend from here on out.
Click to expand...

Great post I always appreciate those of you who lay out a path! Numbers aren't my thing...but I do know how big this weekend is esp where HE points are concerned.

So while not impossible at least there is hope in the air.
Been so long since UNH fans could even begin to speculate that we could have a meaningful? post season ...play in games that count.

Not to mention the experience of playing in those games can mean to our youngish roster. Of course taking care of business is the key to getting there as you say.

In a perfect world thinking UNH needs to go 5-1 down the stretch but that is a tall order. But you go one game at a time.
 
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2013hockeyfan said:
It doesn't feel like this weekend is hard to predict given recent results from UNH (and the less recent matchup between the two teams in Orono, which wasn't a particularly competitive game). I'm just curious if they will be able to keep it close either night, tbh.
Click to expand...

Dining on the tastiest of crow after this weekend
 
Felger said:
http://playoffstatus.com/hockeyeast/hockeyeaststandings.html

http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html
Click to expand...

I'm still far from certain I buy into UNH this season, let alone long term - but a 22% chance to finish fourth definitely perks my interest. Ending up in 4th-place likely means jumping PC, which would ultimately list top-four teams in Hockey East as BC, BU, UMO & UNH, offering some glory day sentimentality for many of us (at least for one season)...
 
Dan said:
I'm still far from certain I buy into UNH this season, let alone long term - but a 22% chance to finish fourth definitely perks my interest. Ending up in 4th-place likely means jumping PC, which would ultimately list top-four teams in Hockey East as BC, BU, UMO & UNH, offering some glory day sentimentality for many of us (at least for one season)...
Click to expand...

I am with you. It still feels a bit of a mirage.

The inconsistency definitely has some mediocre team vibes to it. Those stretches of games where they are playing poorly is that really who they are?

It would seem plausible for this team to go 3-3 or 2-4 down the stretch and get bounced before getting to Boston and be done for the year.

I think in some ways this team embodies that line "you aren't talented enough to win on talent alone". When they remember that and work there asses off they convincingly sweeping UMaine on the weekend. When they forget, it is losing at Army 6-3.

It has been noted if you flip the "bad" L's @Army & @MC, UNH is all of a sudden 10th in the Pairwise and not looking bad for the NCAAs. Also flip home Uconn and @UVM and UNH is suddenly 6th and basically a lock. If the team on the ice against UMaine this past weekend had shown up in those 4 games I think the results would have been different. Can't change the past.

As a UNH fan some of it is this team is young (particularly the scoring) and that is likely the cause of the inconsistency that has been the problem. Hopefully they have learned via the hard knocks, maybe the coaching has come around (maybe). I will give Souza credit for identifying the problem and the solution to the Union Leader before the UMaine games and then the team actually executed. What took so long?
 
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This weekend will be telling. Teams are virtually equal in records, standings, PWR and the poll and both need two wins to keep NCAA chances alive. Logic says they split.
 
Darius said:
This weekend will be telling. Teams are virtually equal in records, standings, PWR and the poll and both need two wins to keep NCAA chances alive. Logic says they split.
Click to expand...

I think that if UNH and Flagship split then neither gets into the NCAA’s, limiting HEA to BC, BU, Maine, and PC.

Following is comparison of losses by the two teams:

Flagship (15 in PWR) losses (9#) and PWR ranking: BC-1(2#), BU-2, Maine-7, Mich–16, UVM-27(2#), Mack-31, Clarkson-36

UNH (17 in PWR) losses (11#): BC-1, BU-2(2#), Maine-7, Quinn-8, PC-12, Yukon-22, RIT-25, UVM-27, Mack-31, Army-56
 
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