Another swirling thought, to ’refs recruiting/commitment point, does a one year extension help or hurt the program? If I’m AD, I am either making a change or offering a three (maaaaybe two) year extension. One year is not a consideration.
I think there is a lot to be said about boiling it down to your ultimate conclusion above, Darius. The more this year's team continues to circle the drain down the stretch, it undoes the surprisingly strong start they made to this season, and this season begins to fade into the same mediocrity that has preceded it in each and every past season where MS7 has been in charge. I mean, if you've seen the same movie over and over again for a half-dozen times ... is there really any sane or logical expectation that the ending changes for (ironically) #7?
From a numbers perspective ... IIRC when his predecessor was chasing the infamous NRN a few years ago, Coach Umile deservedly came up short of even that modest goal when he averaged a whopping twelve (12) wins per season over his final three lame duck seasons, aided by MS7 as his chief recruiter. UNH is now most of the way through MS7's sixth season in charge, and guess what? UNH is exactly at the same level we were when Coach Umile left, as MS7 is averaging twelve (12) wins per season. IF UNH were to reach the twenty (20) win level this season, that average would leap all the way to ... thirteen (13) wins per season. Yup. That's "progress" for ya ... and chances of getting to 20 this season are increasingly fleeting, even though I was still on board for that accomplishment as of a week or two ago. But let's look just a bit deeper, shall we ...
... so let's start with Coach Umile's final three seasons without MS7 as his lead recruiter, when Scotty B. was running the show on recruiting ... how many wins do you think UNH averaged over those final 3 seasons, when many UNH fans were already voicing disappointment with levels of postseason progress from the all-time winningest coach? Answer - 20 wins per season. Now extend that back another three seasons, and how many wins were Coach Umile's teams averaging over that six year stretch, again with Scotty B. in charge? 19 wins per season over those 6 yrs. - for an average of 18 W's per year for the first half of those six final Umile years, and (as noted above) 20 W's for Borek's final three seasons. Even if not up to prior UNH standards - and there is no question, Umile's final six years were his worst six year stretch, eking past his first six years in charge - there is an argument to be made that Borek's recruited teams were at worst treading water at or around the 20 WPS level.
Coach Borek leaves when Coach Souza is appointed, and MS7 becomes lead recruiter and associate HC. UNH posts three (3) consecutive losing seasons during the "Long Goodbye" transition, whereas Coach Umile had posted all of two (2) losing seasons over his first 25 seasons in charge. Up until now, as a group, we've been pretty harsh and judgmental on Coach Umile's performance over his final three seasons, and I hold my hand up as prominent in that group. But, with the benefit of additional data to consider ... can
and should the argument be made that Coach Umile's
final three seasons' results were more a reflection of MS7's limitations as a lead recruiter?? For sure, those three years most closely track with the six years that followed, when Coach Souza ascended to head coach, than they do with the preceding six seasons, when Scotty B. at least had the program doing a somewhat pale impression of more successful UNH Hockey teams in the prime Umile Era?
Perhaps instructively ... let's sit back and assess what the reasonable expectations were when Coach Souza was annointed Head Coach in Waiting by the former AD and his coaching predecessor. Was the reasonable expectation for what was to follow once Coach Souza placed his imprimatur on the program that UNH would:
(1) Return to the prime Umile Era glory years, when UNH averaged 25 WPS, and regularly qualified for the NCAA's;
(2) Return at least to the Late Stage Borek Era, when UNH averaged almost 20 WPS, and were in the mix for NCAA's; or
(3) Maintain the average of the final three years of the horrid "Umile Checked Out" Era, hovering at around 12 WPS?!?
How any logical and/or rational person in charge of the personnel decisions can come to the conclusion the Coach Souza Era has been anything but a
crushing disappointment and failure, would leave me speechless - especially having seen that same person coming to a far different determination at this time last season regarding the future of a HC of the "other" Winter revenue sport, who consistently outperformed MS7 with a fraction of the resources and support from the U. I mean, this is not a close call. It only becomes a close call now IF UNH either posts their first 20 win season in 10 seasons (2013/2014) OR gets themselves to the TD Garden for the HEA Semifinals. And neither of those results is looking very likely based on the team's recent form.
Next weekend, Coach Ben Barr brings his UMaine Black Bears to The Whitt for a pair of must-win games for UNH. AD Rich should find herself a prominent seat to watch how this series plays out. I hear rumors about how "money talks", and with TDL purportedly being besties with MS7, AD Rich should invite TDL to take the seat next to her, and dispassionately observe the series that plays out in front of them. And if things are to play out as I suspect they will, AD Rich should ask TDL if he truly thinks his investment in UNH Athletics is best realized by a few more years of the current mediocrity on display, OR if TDL would like to be part of a blue ribbon panel of UNH Athletics' experts (lol!) to ID and retain the "next Ben Barr". I'd think that message should register loud and clear, and prevent further continuation of the deterioration of UNH Hockey.
To paraphrase Snives and his all-time famous pronouncement on the value of the Jumbotron ... "I was for the consideration of an extension to Mike Souza before I became decidedly opposed to it."
Rounding back to Darius' post ... the idea that UNH is on the verge of some major competitive breakthrough this season has been rendered just another cruel mirage. I don't need to see another year of continued mediocre hockey to sell me that it's time to pull the plug, and if there is a viable quality replacement candidate, we shouldn't sit on our thumbs and watch them turn up at UMaine, or someone else destined to be reminding us of another opportunity lost for the foreseeable future. Time to fish, no more time left to waste cutting bait. JMHO.