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UMass Lowell 2021-2022: Which way are we going?

Lowell currently sitting at 69% to make the tourney based off the CHN probability matrix after the tOSU loss.
 
Looks more than likely we will get another shot at Merrimack pending a small miracle by Maine. That was a weekend to forget....gave up 4 PPGs. Obviously we will have to do much better on special teams. Savory will need another shutout. One shot one kill.
 
medic4419 said:
Looks more than likely we will get another shot at Merrimack pending a small miracle by Maine. That was a weekend to forget....gave up 4 PPGs. Obviously we will have to do much better on special teams. Savory will need another shutout. One shot one kill.
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They'll need to stay out of the box. They can't afford to take bad penalties. Any information on Henry Welsch, he didn't dress Saturday? Edvard Nordlund was / is the backup who has yet to play this season.
 
To no surprise we are getting no love from the others on the HE tourney board. If we play stout clean hockey (w hockey east refs ...who knows how that will be defined), there shouldnt be a team that beats us.
 
We haven't exactly made a strong statement the last two months, so I'm not surprised that people aren't too worried about Lowell going into the playoffs.
 
under the radar is fine with me. There's nothing too tremendous about this team outside of Savory. The defense hasn't been stellar and I think owen has helped a lot.

late edit: You can't be the sexy choice forever. We aren't right now and each of the teams are chomping at the bit where they see HEA as wide open and UMass is vulnerable. Bottom line, win our QF game and they can say what ever they want.

S-E-X-Y is banned? really?
 
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umlhockey22490 said:
Monty, i believe the phrase/ sketch is "Noone expects the Spanish Inquisition"
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True! And to continue the quote

"Our chief weapon is surprise... surprise and fear... fear and surprise... Our two weapons are fear and surprise... and ruthless efficiency.... Our three weapons are fear, and surprise, and ruthless efficiency... and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope... Our four... no... Amongst our weapons... Amongst our weaponry... are such elements as fear, surprise... I'll come in again."
 
UMLFan said:
True! And to continue the quote

"Our chief weapon is surprise... surprise and fear... fear and surprise... Our two weapons are fear and surprise... and ruthless efficiency.... Our three weapons are fear, and surprise, and ruthless efficiency... and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope... Our four... no... Amongst our weapons... Amongst our weaponry... are such elements as fear, surprise... I'll come in again."
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Needed this laugh this morning. Now I have that scene in my head - ha!!!
 
Scoring first is a must on Saturday.

In the postseason, they are 17-4 under Norm when scoring the 1st goal of the game, 11-3 in Hockey East playoff games. When the opposition scores 1st, Lowell is just 12-13, but 12-9 in Hockey East games.

If it becomes a 2-goal game, it's essentially over. Under Norm, Lowell is 21-0 when they get a 2-goal lead at any point in a postseason game, 16-0 in Hockey East games. If they fall behind by 2? 1-10 overall, 1-7 in Hockey East games. The 1 win was the double OT comeback against BC in the Hockey East semifinals last season.
 
Merrimack up 4... barring an epic collapse they'll be our opponent. Same story. Gotta win
 
Congrats to Matt Crasa for being named to the Hockey East All-Rookie team. Sacred Heart's loss was definitely our gain.
 
Patman said:
I am not in the weeds of the recruiting game. What happened there?
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He had decommitted a while before choosing Lowell. Might have been one of those where he committed early (May 2019 was his original commit) and then saw better options as his numbers in the USHL growing?
 
ScottK said:
Scoring first is a must on Saturday.

In the postseason, they are 17-4 under Norm when scoring the 1st goal of the game, 11-3 in Hockey East playoff games. When the opposition scores 1st, Lowell is just 12-13, but 12-9 in Hockey East games.

If it becomes a 2-goal game, it's essentially over. Under Norm, Lowell is 21-0 when they get a 2-goal lead at any point in a postseason game, 16-0 in Hockey East games. If they fall behind by 2? 1-10 overall, 1-7 in Hockey East games. The 1 win was the double OT comeback against BC in the Hockey East semifinals last season.
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Your own stats show that scoring first is not a must for UML, as they have a 12-9 record when giving up the first goal. That is much better than the combined record through Wednesday night's games of 101-51 for teams scoring first in the HE tournament over the past 11 seasons. However, when a team has taken a 2 goal lead in the tournament over that time it has been pretty much over as teams are a combined 107-13, although 11 other times a team blew a 2 goal lead before going on to win the game. Not quite the perfect record UML has, but pretty solid.

Sean
 
Sean Pickett said:
Your own stats show that scoring first is not a must for UML, as they have a 12-9 record when giving up the first goal. That is much better than the combined record through Wednesday night's games of 101-51 for teams scoring first in the HE tournament over the past 11 seasons. However, when a team has taken a 2 goal lead in the tournament over that time it has been pretty much over as teams are a combined 107-13, although 11 other times a team blew a 2 goal lead before going on to win the game. Not quite the perfect record UML has, but pretty solid.

Sean
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Scoring first vs not scoring first is the difference between winning about 80% of the time for Lowell vs it being essentially a toss-up. For the regular season this year, that pattern continued: 14-4-0 when they score first, 6-5-3 when they don't. I'll feel a LOT better about Lowell's chances if they score first (and second).

BTW, 2 of Lowell's 4 losses this season when scoring first were the 2 games against Merrimack. 1 of the 4 in postseason play was also against Merrimack in 2018.
 
ScottK said:
Scoring first vs not scoring first is the difference between winning about 80% of the time for Lowell vs it being essentially a toss-up. For the regular season this year, that pattern continued: 14-4-0 when they score first, 6-5-3 when they don't. I'll feel a LOT better about Lowell's chances if they score first (and second).
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Of course scoring first is important. Over the past 4 seasons in men's college hockey the team that scores first is a combined 2490-956-333, 0.703. In the postseason over the past 5 seasons teams have a combined 245-104, 0.702 record. Only 27.2% of those teams never lost the lead after scoring the first goal of the game, but it does show the importance of the first goal.

When taking a 2 goal lead in a game the past 4 seasons teams are a combined 2689-256-146, 0.894 and in the past 5 postseasons teams are 236-30, 0.887.

ScottK said:
BTW, 2 of Lowell's 4 losses this season when scoring first were the 2 games against Merrimack. 1 of the 4 in postseason play was also against Merrimack in 2018.
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Merrimack is 6-3 when scoring first in the HE Tournament and 6-0 when taking a 2 goal lead over the past 11 seasons. They are 10-5-1 when scoring first this season and 15-2-0 when taking a 2 goal lead.

BTW, according to my stats UML is 17-0 in Hockey East Tournament games when taking a 2 goal lead (of course, I may have made a mistake entering the data).

Sean
 
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This is going to be a tough matchup. Merrimack is on a roll, and apart from sweeping UNH last weekend, Lowell hasn't looked that great over the last 4 or 5 weeks.

Fingers crossed. Would be at the Tsongas on Saturday but have prior commitments.
 
Not much to talk about tonight. Most results went well tonight with the exception of union Clarkson. ECAC is a one bid league and Clarkson is IIRC the top spoiler. They won tonight. Meanwhile any at large charge Omaha could have made got snuffed out tonight. I suppose Miami could come back on Denver but I don't care right now

All of this is slivers. Important game is tomorrow. Get loud
 
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