UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

[SCSU Euro]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Not seeing where he said the Gophers will "drub" SCSU.

Well he didn't give a score prediction, but they're sweeping and they're playing an opponent that they're better than in every facet of the game, so they better drub them, right?

 

[Tiggsy]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

You guys? I can assure you I am not a UND player but let's not live in the past, tell me the game plan for defeating the mighty Marcia Brady.

Hold on! I just wanted to point this out because we may never see it again. A Whioux fan is saying we should not live in the past. What's next? They say you shouldn't go out and buy jerseys for a team you have never heard of and never will again?

Okay, continue. Although it seems a little early in the week for actual hockey talk. Maybe a refreshing change to get to it so soon.

 

[motox]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Not what the stats say other than that both teams are good enough that neither team should expect a sweep based on the stats.

Wait, what? I get what you're saying but that was just a funny way of going about it.

I can't believe how much time has already been spent arguing the relevance of non-conference records. Of course it matters, but only in terms of how it affects overall record and PWR ranking. Do the games SCSU lost to UNH/NMU or the games MN beat Notre Dame/BC have any impact on this series or any future games they play? No.

Should be two very good games and with these teams playing at the level they are any outcome wouldn't be a surprise. Either way it's going to be great hockey.

 

[Tipsy McStagger]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I never understood the comparison of only conference game stats. Do the teams play differently outside the conference? Thought they'd always want to try to win, even in non-conference.

If you look at overall stats, MN is in the top 6 in scoring (1st), defense (4), pp (3) and pk (6) (and only averages a couple more minutes in penalties per game). SCSU doesn't get any higher than 8 (I think) in any category, other than least penalized. So you could say MN leads in all categories if you use overall stats (and it isn't like they've only played cupcakes).

I like to use conference stats because that is the closest you are going to get to comparisons against equal competition. The Gophers had two non-conference games against good teams. The rest were pretty much cupcakes. Gophers NC opponents RPI: 53, 53, 47, 45, 45, 39, 5, 15. St. Cloud State NC opponents RPI: 4, 4, 58, 58, 29, 29, 23, 23. How else would you explain the Gophers having an SOS of 33, while SCSU has a SOS of 8?

 

[The Exiled One]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I never understood the comparison of only conference game stats. Do the teams play differently outside the conference? Thought they'd always want to try to win, even in non-conference.

I've watched them play most of their conference and non-conference games, and I can tell you without hesitation, yes, they played very differently.

Feel free to compare the teams using overall stats, the Gophers will win most of those comparisons. I don't feel they're as indicative of how the two teams will play this weekend, but that doesn't mean you can't use them to support your point-of-view.

 

[Bronzebacks]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I like to use conference stats because that is the closest you are going to get to comparisons against equal competition. The Gophers had two non-conference games against good teams. The rest were pretty much cupcakes. Gophers NC opponents RPI: 53, 53, 47, 45, 45, 39, 5, 15. St. Cloud State NC opponents RPI: 4, 4, 58, 58, 29, 29, 23, 23. How else would you explain the Gophers having an SOS of 33, while SCSU has a SOS of 8?

Their NC opponents are not overly impressive. Keep in mind that SCSU played DU 4 games and UND 4 games this year. These are tough teams and a boost to SCSU's SOS. UM will only play both of those teams 2 times each barring any playoff meetings.

I don't know why Husky fans are so sensitive to a legitimate criticism of our team when it comes to NC games. They crapped the bed. Does that mean it will happen again. Nope. But it most certainly proves that it can happen. On paper it looks like it should be an epic battle between these teams. I hope we see just that. But on paper it looked like we should have had a goal frenzy against RPI and UNM.

 

[captain beefheart]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Well he didn't give a score prediction, but they're sweeping and they're playing an opponent that they're better than in every facet of the game, so they better drub them, right?

It would be nice,true. But since we are at your cute little house, the scores may be closer than the talent disparity would otherwise dictate.

 

[Koho]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I like to use conference stats because that is the closest you are going to get to comparisons against equal competition. The Gophers had two non-conference games against good teams. The rest were pretty much cupcakes. Gophers NC opponents RPI: 53, 53, 47, 45, 45, 39, 5, 15. St. Cloud State NC opponents RPI: 4, 4, 58, 58, 29, 29, 23, 23. How else would you explain the Gophers having an SOS of 33, while SCSU has a SOS of 8?

If you really want to use stats to compare, you should pull together stats from the last 8 games or so to see how they are playing recently. Mn had a stretch early on of low scoring games and not great PP after the opening weekend. Or maybe just compare similar opponents records? Or how about pro-rating based on opponents winning percentage? The point is, stats just offer a general comparison, I don't think you can say SCSU has an defensive advantage because the conference record is slightly better over the entire season. They both look good on paper and both have been playing well recently. (And I can't say I would trade MN's D corp for any in the nation, BTW, including SCSU's.) That is what I was getting at with the butchered sentence that motox pointed out. Throw the stats out. Most likely, each game will be won by the team that wants it more.

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

I never understood the comparison of only conference game stats. Do the teams play differently outside the conference? Thought they'd always want to try to win, even in non-conference.

If you look at overall stats, MN is in the top 6 in scoring (1st), defense (4), pp (3) and pk (6) (and only averages a couple more minutes in penalties per game). SCSU doesn't get any higher than 8 (I think) in any category, other than least penalized. So you could say MN leads in all categories if you use overall stats (and it isn't like they've only played cupcakes).

I don't really do predictions. I've only seen parts of a handful of SCSU games, so can't claim to know how good they are. They are obviously a very skilled team. How much effort each team puts into the game will have the biggest influence, along with how hot the goalies are and maybe even a lucky bounce or bad call or stupid penalty. Past stats pretty much indicate that both teams are close enough that neither team should expect a sweep. They'll have to try to earn any points.

I agree. It's just plain silly to only look at conference stats. I guess you could argue the games are different (OOC opponents have less familiarity with you and vice versa), but then I think that ties in to why I'd be concerned with SCSU's non-conference record if I were them.

 

[GrinCDXX]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

It is relevant and a concern. But as long as the team continues to perform at a high level, it is a small concern.

I know one thing is certain, if the our teams out of conference records were flipped, I know our fans would be quick to point it out.

This. So much this.

 

[Husky4Life]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Good thing the games are played on paper with stats instead of actual games, saves me lots of time and money this weekend.

 

[First Time Long Time]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I agree. It's just plain silly to only look at conference stats. I guess you could argue the games are different (OOC opponents have less familiarity with you and vice versa), but then I think that ties in to why I'd be concerned with SCSU's non-conference record if I were them.

Your premise on us needing to be concerned doesn't really make sense though.
Regular season non-conference games are not the same as NCAA tournament games.
No team is likely going to treat the two as being equal in value.
That's what happened with us, and it was evident in our play.
We essentially took the non-con series "off," we played back-ups in goal for two of them, the only starts they've gotten all year, and the whole team didn't look focused.
Do you honestly think the players will look at an NCAA game as a game they can take off?

 

[The Exiled One]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Even with all the bickering over stats and past records, I still haven't seen anybody credible predict anything other than a split.

 

[GrinCDXX]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Even with all the bickering over stats and past records, I still haven't seen anybody credible predict anything other than a split.

Yeah, it really is academic, I'm hoping the Gophers can get a split. SCSU is clearly playing very well and they'll be looking to make a statement and take control of the title race. The Gophers are going to need to be ready to match intensity from the opening minute Friday or they could be in trouble.

 

[SCSU Euro]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

If you really want to use stats to compare, you should pull together stats from the last 8 games or so to see how they are playing recently. Mn had a stretch early on of low scoring games and not great PP after the opening weekend. Or maybe just compare similar opponents records? Or how about pro-rating based on opponents winning percentage? The point is, stats just offer a general comparison, I don't think you can say SCSU has an defensive advantage because the conference record is slightly better over the entire season. They both look good on paper and both have been playing well recently. (And I can't say I would trade MN's D corp for any in the nation, BTW, including SCSU's.) That is what I was getting at with the butchered sentence that motox pointed out. Throw the stats out. Most likely, each game will be won by the team that wants it more.

First off, as a blueliner, Jensen > anybody else the NCAA has (including Schmidt)

That being said, I'd give the rest of the overall Gophers the edge, and certainly in defensive depth. Yet somehow we keep teams off the scoresheet. 1, 0, 2, 1, 1, 2. Number of goals conceded in the last 6 games, with 4 games on the road, and 4 against UND and DU.

These teams are ranked in goals per game in WCHA play: 2nd (SCSU) and 3rd (MN)
Ranked in goals given up in WCHA play: 1st (SCSU) and 3rd (MN)
Goal differential: 1st (SCSU @ +28) and 2nd (MN @ +19)
Winning percentage: 1st (SCSU) and 2nd (MN)

Trying to get the numbers to say anything other than these are two really good teams and the series could go either way is pointless. So from now until (at least) Thursday... why don't we all just sit around talking about how good the other fanbase's moms are in bed?

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

Your premise on us needing to be concerned doesn't really make sense though.
Regular season non-conference games are not the same as NCAA tournament games.
No team is likely going to treat the two as being equal in value.
That's what happened with us, and it was evident in our play.
We essentially took the non-con series "off," we played back-ups in goal for two of them, the only starts they've gotten all year, and the whole team didn't look focused.
Do you honestly think the players will look at an NCAA game as a game they can take off?

So your explanation is that your team took their OOC games (which can have a significant impact on a team's Pairwise) off? If so, that's just poor coaching and I'd be even more concerned. Not trying to make a big deal out of this, because in the end it probably will be a non-factor, but it isn't something to brush aside either.

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

Even with all the bickering over stats and past records, I still haven't seen anybody credible predict anything other than a split.

Going to be a huge test for both teams. I wouldn't be surprised by anything.

 

[Tipsy McStagger]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Their NC opponents are not overly impressive. Keep in mind that SCSU played DU 4 games and UND 4 games this year. These are tough teams and a boost to SCSU's SOS. UM will only play both of those teams 2 times each barring any playoff meetings.

I don't know why Husky fans are so sensitive to a legitimate criticism of our team when it comes to NC games. They crapped the bed. Does that mean it will happen again. Nope. But it most certainly proves that it can happen. On paper it looks like it should be an epic battle between these teams. I hope we see just that. But on paper it looked like we should have had a goal frenzy against RPI and UNM.

Their NC opponents aren't just not overly impressive, they were trash. They played one of the twenty worst teams in college hockey for 6 of their 8 NC games. They also got to play their two toughest NC opponents at home. I am not saying the Gophers aren't a very good team. I think they are one of the top 5 in the country, but if you want to use the overall stats it is worth mentioning the disparity in the quality of opponents.

Also, why isn't SCSU's superior record in conference play, despite playing a tougher schedule, being brought up? If the Gophers are better in every statistical category, then why are they behind us in the standings when they played an easier schedule? You can't have it both ways. If you want to talk about the Huskies' non-conference struggles, you should also discuss their superiority in conference play.

 

[Bronzebacks]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

So your explanation is that your team took their OOC games (which can have a significant impact on a team's Pairwise) off? If so, that's just poor coaching and I'd be even more concerned.

Pretty much. This was the internal criticism to a great extent about a month ago. At the time these same rational people were calling for Motzko's head.....

SCSU actually played that Saturday night game pretty well against NMU. They put a lot of pressure on and just could not get find the net.

 

[goldy_331]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Even with all the bickering over stats and past records, I still haven't seen anybody credible predict anything other than a split.

Of course not - there is no one credible posting on this board!