UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

[First Time Long Time]

I think the OOC record is a legit concern but it would rank pretty low on the list. Personally, I would be looking at the following much more closely:

- How is the team playing in the last 4-6 games heading into the NCAA's.
- Injury situation
- What are the specific matchups they are facing in the first/second round

OOC record and past NCAA records are on the list just not very high (IMO).

What is the "concern" exactly?
That we may come out flat?
Wouldn't that be a concern anyway?
With the exception of the Saturday NMU loss, we were flat in every non
con loss we had.
UNH is understandable since it was the first series of the year, on the road with no prior games.
But if we have to be concerned about a let down, that should be a concern for every team, regardless of their record.

 

[The Exiled One]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

On the one hand, I think the formula for beating the Gophers is simple (though not easy), clog the middle, fill passing lanes, block shots, get good goaltending and capitalize on your opportunities. On the other hand, I think SCSU prefers a more up-temp game as well. As we all know, the Gophs prefer to play a "pretty" game rather than mucking it up and getting gritty goals. They can play gritty but they prefer not to. I think Motzko is a good enough coach to get his team to do the things they need to do to beat the Gophers, and Faragher (sp?) is certainly good enough to do what they need from him.

I also think this will be a more difficult series than even UND in Grand Forks.

Some of your points are valid, but I would also add that discipline works in SCSU's favor. Unfortunately, I also think that with emotions running high, SCSU will probably be baited into a few stupid penalties. They're definitely not going to get through the weekend with zero penalties like they did last weekend. If I were Motzko, I'd be trying to send Milan or Rehkamp wide on Helgeson as often as possible. I'm guessing they could draw a couple of calls that way.

I'm thinking split.

 

[gopheritall]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

This is a tough series for me. Despite every reason I just don't have the same dislike for SCSU as I do for legitimate programs like UND and WI. I still see them as a struggling sibling and usually wish the best for them.

I see the Gophers taking 3 this weekend. Just enough to make sure the rest of the season is interesting.

 

[SCSU Euro]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

When was the last time Gophers won a series in Cloud? Last year was two home and homes, and in the two home games for us we split. Year before was at Mariucci and then I think home and homes before that. I think its been sometime since the Gophers have won a series in the NHC

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

This is a tough series for me. Despite every reason I just don't have the same dislike for SCSU as I do for legitimate programs like UND and WI. I still see them as a struggling sibling and usually wish the best for them.

I see the Gophers taking 3 this weekend. Just enough to make sure the rest of the season is interesting.

Same here. I don't hate the other in-state programs either. I want the Gophers to beat them, but I am always happy to see the other MN programs have success. When SCSU wins a championship, and I think it's only a matter of time before they do, I will be cheering for them.

 

[cross cheque]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Sneak peak at the new SCSU alternate jersey they are wearing this weekend:

 

[SCSU Euro]

Sneak peak at the new SCSU alternate jersey they are wearing this weekend:

Was that why you guys didn't defend Hanowski all weekend in Grand Forks? Couldn't see him bc of the camouflage?

 

[Bronzebacks]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Sneak peak at the new SCSU alternate jersey they are wearing this weekend:

Liar! Home team always wear white or light colored jerseys.

 

[HoosierBBall_GopherHockey]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Thank God cross cheque got us back on point (read: off of hockey talk), or I may have questioned whether I was actually on USCHO.

 

[Pump It Up]

Thank God cross cheque got us back on point (read: off of hockey talk), or I may have questioned whether I was actually on USCHO.

He has a gift for that.

 

[Tiggsy]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Same here. I don't hate the other in-state programs either. I want the Gophers to beat them, but I am always happy to see the other MN programs have success. When SCSU wins a championship, and I think it's only a matter of time before they do, I will be cheering for them.

But what will they do with their participation banner when/if they finally win one?

 

[The Exiled One]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I'm going to try to break this down a bit...

Advantages
Faceoffs: Minnesota - Bjugstad will beat LeBlanc 70% of the time. Morley is the SCSU faceoff specialist, but he won't be matched up against Bjugstad.
Penalties: St. Cloud - Gophers aren't goons, but the Huskies are angels compared to every other team in the WCHA.
Powerplay: Minnesota - Huskies are no slouches, but the Gophers are as good at scoring on the powerplay as the Huskies are at avoiding them.
Penalty Kill: Draw - Both teams are solid here, neither with an overly aggressive PK style.
Goaltending: Draw - Wilcox's stats are a bit prettier overall, but Faragher's stats are better in conference games.
Team Offense: Minnesota - Both teams are scoring (3.40 for the Huskies and 3.39 for the Gophers in conference play), but the Gophers are shooting the puck more (31.3 avg).
Team Defense: St. Cloud - The Huskies have allowed an average of only 23.6 shots per game in their last 12 WCHA games and are +17 in the conference overall.
Intangibles: St. Cloud - Playing at home

I see a split this weekend, but I give the Huskies a slightly higher chance of coming away with extra points. Thoughts?

 

[cross cheque]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Was that why you guys didn't defend Hanowski all weekend in Grand Forks? Couldn't see him bc of the camouflage?

You guys? I can assure you I am not a UND player but let's not live in the past, tell me the game plan for defeating the mighty Marcia Brady.

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

But what will they do with their participation banner when/if they finally win one?

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

I'm going to try to break this down a bit...

Advantages
Faceoffs: Minnesota - Bjugstad will beat LeBlanc 70% of the time. Morley is the SCSU faceoff specialist, but he won't be matched up against Bjugstad.
Penalties: St. Cloud - Gophers aren't goons, but the Huskies are angels compared to every other team in the WCHA.
Powerplay: Minnesota - Huskies are no slouches, but the Gophers are as good at scoring on the powerplay as the Huskies are at avoiding them.
Penalty Kill: Draw - Both teams are solid here, neither with an overly aggressive PK style.
Goaltending: Draw - Wilcox's stats are a bit prettier overall, but Faragher's stats are better in conference games.
Team Offense: Minnesota - Both teams are scoring (3.40 for the Huskies and 3.39 for the Gophers in conference play), but the Gophers are shooting the puck more (31.3 avg).
Team Defense: St. Cloud - The Huskies have allowed an average of only 23.6 shots per game in their last 12 WCHA games and are +17 in the conference overall.
Intangibles: St. Cloud - Playing at home

I see a split this weekend, but I give the Huskies a slightly higher chance of coming away with extra points. Thoughts?

Pretty solid break-down.

 

[gopher wes]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

When was the last time Gophers won a series in Cloud? Last year was two home and homes, and in the two home games for us we split. Year before was at Mariucci and then I think home and homes before that. I think its been sometime since the Gophers have won a series in the NHC

Not sure about sweeping at St Cloud, but I believe it was 09-10 where the Gophers won all six games against SCSU. 2 home and homes and 2 games at Mariucci in the first round playoffs. Don't know the last time both games were at Cloud and I'm too lazy to check.

 

[EASTgrandforks]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I'm going to try to break this down a bit...

Advantages
Faceoffs: Minnesota - Bjugstad will beat LeBlanc 70% of the time. Morley is the SCSU faceoff specialist, but he won't be matched up against Bjugstad.
Penalties: St. Cloud - Gophers aren't goons, but the Huskies are angels compared to every other team in the WCHA.
Powerplay: Minnesota - Huskies are no slouches, but the Gophers are as good at scoring on the powerplay as the Huskies are at avoiding them.
Penalty Kill: Draw - Both teams are solid here, neither with an overly aggressive PK style.
Goaltending: Draw - Wilcox's stats are a bit prettier overall, but Faragher's stats are better in conference games.
Team Offense: Minnesota - Both teams are scoring (3.40 for the Huskies and 3.39 for the Gophers in conference play), but the Gophers are shooting the puck more (31.3 avg).
Team Defense: St. Cloud - The Huskies have allowed an average of only 23.6 shots per game in their last 12 WCHA games and are +17 in the conference overall.
Intangibles: St. Cloud - Playing at home

I see a split this weekend, but I give the Huskies a slightly higher chance of coming away with extra points. Thoughts?

Disagree... Gopher's have advantages over SCSU in everything PP, PK and Team Defense. It will be a battle between Faragher and Wilcox, both teams will come to play. Results will be determined by which goalie stands on their head. Leaning towards Gopher sweep!

 

[SCSU Euro]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Disagree... Gopher's have advantages over SCSU in everything PP, PK and Team Defense. It will be a battle between Faragher and Wilcox, both teams will come to play. Results will be determined by which goalie stands on their head. Leaning towards Gopher sweep!

One WCHA sweep all season, at home, against by far the worst team in the conference, and now they'll go into the building of the WCHA leading team, who hasn't lost a series all year, and they'll drub them. Got it.

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

One WCHA sweep all season, at home, against by far the worst team in the conference, and now they'll go into the building of the WCHA leading team, who hasn't lost a series all year, and they'll drub them. Got it.

Not seeing where he said the Gophers will "drub" SCSU.

 

[Koho]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I'm going to try to break this down a bit...

Advantages
Faceoffs: Minnesota - Bjugstad will beat LeBlanc 70% of the time. Morley is the SCSU faceoff specialist, but he won't be matched up against Bjugstad.
Penalties: St. Cloud - Gophers aren't goons, but the Huskies are angels compared to every other team in the WCHA.
Powerplay: Minnesota - Huskies are no slouches, but the Gophers are as good at scoring on the powerplay as the Huskies are at avoiding them.
Penalty Kill: Draw - Both teams are solid here, neither with an overly aggressive PK style.
Goaltending: Draw - Wilcox's stats are a bit prettier overall, but Faragher's stats are better in conference games.
Team Offense: Minnesota - Both teams are scoring (3.40 for the Huskies and 3.39 for the Gophers in conference play), but the Gophers are shooting the puck more (31.3 avg).
Team Defense: St. Cloud - The Huskies have allowed an average of only 23.6 shots per game in their last 12 WCHA games and are +17 in the conference overall.
Intangibles: St. Cloud - Playing at home

I see a split this weekend, but I give the Huskies a slightly higher chance of coming away with extra points. Thoughts?

I never understood the comparison of only conference game stats. Do the teams play differently outside the conference? Thought they'd always want to try to win, even in non-conference.

If you look at overall stats, MN is in the top 6 in scoring (1st), defense (4), pp (3) and pk (6) (and only averages a couple more minutes in penalties per game). SCSU doesn't get any higher than 8 (I think) in any category, other than least penalized. So you could say MN leads in all categories if you use overall stats (and it isn't like they've only played cupcakes).

I don't really do predictions. I've only seen parts of a handful of SCSU games, so can't claim to know how good they are. They are obviously a very skilled team. How much effort each team puts into the game will have the biggest influence, along with how hot the goalies are and maybe even a lucky bounce or bad call or stupid penalty. Past stats pretty much indicate that both teams are close enough that neither team should expect a sweep. They'll have to try to earn any points.