Tournament Speculation Thread

[Dyce]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Is Amherst really that close to being a lock?

They got beat 3-0 by Utica who is now looking like the #3 team in the ecac west.

Josh has them ahead of Plattsburgh on the Webbsite, and the numbers bear it out pretty clearly. Amherst even has a stronger SOS at the moment; I'd assumed that had to be the other way around until it came up.

e: At some point, the quotes in this thread got all messed up, so I fixed that.

 

[joecct]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I have Amherst as #3 in my RPI, but for right now, I'm counting all the games not just in region games. However, you may have something there Farquahr based on SoS. However, there is the Armageddon scenario (the last time was the year after SNC won the NCAA's) then all bets are off.

 

[LakerFan99]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Castleton's case for a Pool C got even tougher after tying Babson today. An 0-1-1 weekend against 2 unranked teams this late in the season means they are pretty much going to need the AQ to get in.

 

[Ozz]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Ironically, a 0-1-1 weekend against two ranked teams would have hurt them more :-D

 

[gr8day4hockey]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Margin of victory is meaningless in this context. The problem with Castleton isn't the teams behind them, it's the teams ahead of them, and Manhattanville just took a big jump on them.

So you are saying that Manhattanville's loss to powerhouse Western New England hurts them less than a Spartan loss to UMASS who already beat Norwich.....the logic on this board never ceases to amaze me

 

[joecct]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

So you are saying that Manhattanville's loss to powerhouse Western New England hurts them less than a Spartan loss to UMASS who already beat Norwich.....the logic on this board never ceases to amaze me

Yes. Because of the rest of the schedule. The Manhattanville game vs. WNEU was 1/25 of their schedule. The CSC game vs. UMD is worth 1/21 and for Norwich 1/20.

And let me further elaborate. There are factors
Win Pct
SoS
Head to Head
Common Opponents
Ranked Opponents

As others have said, losing to a ranked opponent puts a black mark in one of the selection factors. Unless you are lucky enough to schedule nothing but ranked teams, a loss (or a win) vs. a ranked team is more important than a win/loss to an unranked team that is only 1/25 (or so) of your WinPct and SoS.

MHT will have played ranked opponents in Amherst, Utica, Elmira, and Neumann. WNEU is not a factor. CSC plays 21 games that count. They are 1-3-0 vs. probable ranked teams with one game left.

MHT is 6-3-1 vs. probable ranked teams. The loss today vs. Utica changed their RvRT from 6-2-1 to 6-3-1 (.722 to .650)

 

[gr8day4hockey]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Yes. Because of the rest of the schedule. The Manhattanville game vs. WNEU was 1/25 of their schedule. The CSC game vs. UMD is worth 1/21 and for Norwich 1/20.

And let me further elaborate. There are factors
Win Pct
SoS
Head to Head
Common Opponents
Ranked Opponents

As others have said, losing to a ranked opponent puts a black mark in one of the selection factors. Unless you are lucky enough to schedule nothing but ranked teams, a loss (or a win) vs. a ranked team is more important than a win/loss to an unranked team that is only 1/25 (or so) of your WinPct and SoS.

MHT will have played ranked opponents in Amherst, Utica, Elmira, and Neumann. WNEU is not a factor. CSC plays 21 games that count. They are 1-3-0 vs. probable ranked teams with one game left.

MHT is 6-3-1 vs. probable ranked teams. The loss today vs. Utica changed their RvRT from 6-2-1 to 6-3-1 (.722 to .650)

the lies the problem....you have a conference that has 5 teams that play each other 3 times each and if they all happen to have been ranked at some point what a great way to get a sos outside of their conference nothing to speal of

 

[VT bragging rights]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

And that is one reason the four combined games with Div II St Mikes & St Anselm hurts the ECAC East teams. The four games do not count towartds Div III play. I for one would be happy to see the Saints leave ECAC East and Norwich & NEC become travel partners. The good old days of Middlebury & Norwich as travel partners certainly took its toll on opposing teams.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

the lies the problem....you have a conference that has 5 teams that play each other 3 times each and if they all happen to have been ranked at some point what a great way to get a sos outside of their conference nothing to speal of

Of which Castleton has neither. Take out Utica and Castleton could end up 0-5 vs ranked teams. Why should they? Pretty much every ECAC West team has proven they can beat a top 10 team, Castleton has not with two pretty ugly ties with Babson and NEC and a loss to UMASS Boston in which YES they did beat the Norwich JV team......every team in the top 15 has a "bad" loss or tie. However just about every team in the top 15 has a good win (except Cadtleton). We saw it with Adrian have all the wins you want over nobodys, but if you cant beat someone you dont get in. Combine that with an ugly loss (sorry not sold on UMass) it spells disaster. Had Utica split with Plattsburgh maybe....at least they would have another quality win...

 

[gr8day4hockey]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Of which Castleton has neither. Take out Utica and Castleton could end up 0-5 vs ranked teams. Why should they? Pretty much every ECAC West team has proven they can beat a top 10 team, Castleton has not with two pretty ugly ties with Babson and NEC and a loss to UMASS Boston in which YES they did beat the Norwich JV team......every team in the top 15 has a "bad" loss or tie. However just about every team in the top 15 has a good win (except Cadtleton). We saw it with Adrian have all the wins you want over nobodys, but if you cant beat someone you dont get in. Combine that with an ugly loss (sorry not sold on UMass) it spells disaster. Had Utica split with Plattsburgh maybe....at least they would have another quality win...

3 of Casltletons 4 losses to #1 and # 3 all on the road 1 g losses....other than Utica and Neuman who both have great wins against Oswego, not sold on the other "wins against top 10 teams) out of conference the West has 37 wins and 23 of thos against the likes of Curry Salve,Brockport,Pottsdam and Fredonia...and you forget Castleton handled Utica easily in Platts

 

[PSUChamps2001]

3 of Casltletons 4 losses to #1 and # 3 all on the road 1 g losses....other than Utica and Neuman who both have great wins against Oswego, not sold on the other "wins against top 10 teams) out of conference the West has 37 wins and 23 of thos against the likes of Curry Salve,Brockport,Pottsdam and Fredonia...and you forget Castleton handled Utica easily in Platts

You are on crack Utica was clearly the better team. Castleton just capitalized early on the PP. Graff doesnt get that 5 min major Utica is right there. Utica also nearly doubled up Castleton on SOG so please come back to Earth.

The ECAC West does not have the luxury of playing teams from the EZAC East either in Conference. Yes Im right there with you that the ECAC West's SOS is inflated do to WHO they play outside of conference. Again as I said weeks ago the ECAC West will continue to beat themselves up as you have 4/5 really good teams, "great?" I dont think so. However Castleton HAS to prove not only can they not LOSE to mediocore teams, they have to beat good teams. If they go 0-5 against Plattsburgh and Norwich Im sorry but they dont deserve to be in just as much as anyone else.

The only thing they have going for them is the 4-10 teams in the East (except Plattsburgh Oswego and Norwich) all keep sputtering down the stretch. A few more wins and Amherst in my book will be right there too. Come selection Sunday errr Monday fans will be able to give a dozen reason for and against why one team did or didn't get in.

Is it a fair system? Sure and the BCS is awesome too... Dont forget I was a big advocate for Castleton getting in over the ECAC W teams, but going 0-1-1 with Babson and Umass does not help. Having said that if they can get a W Saturday and the ECAC W can beat each other up some more, Plattsburgh or Oswego win the SUNY, Amherst wins the NESCAC and St Thomas wins the MIAC Castleton could have a small minute chance. Probably would hurt losing in the semi finals of the ECAC East tourney as well so they dont have another ranked loss.

Simply put there are not enough games in DIII hockey between conferences let alone between regions to fairly say who is the best with such a small NCAA field. However I think the talent gap from the top 1-4 ish teams then 12-15 is greater in DIII then DI in recent years. Id love to replace the MASCAC ECAC NE and even the MCHA bid this year with three other more deserving teams, but its not how it works. So in reality you have 3 spots. In a perfect world there would be clear cut favorites with no tourney upsets, neither happens. Even a team like Plattsburgh can't afford to lose 2-3 more games. 2 and it would be close, 3 and it would take a lot for them to see a bid. With only 3 slots the margin of error is so slim.

Another thing you will see a lot in the next few weeks..."just win and you're in". If you want to play just win, period. And yes Castleton does have a shot at that, unlike the ECAC West Castlrton at least has the opportunity.

 

[joecct]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

3 of Casltletons 4 losses to #1 and # 3 all on the road 1 g losses....other than Utica and Neuman who both have great wins against Oswego, not sold on the other "wins against top 10 teams) out of conference the West has 37 wins and 23 of thos against the likes of Curry Salve,Brockport,Pottsdam and Fredonia...and you forget Castleton handled Utica easily in Platts

It does not matter whether you lose by 1 or lose by 24, you lost. The D-III boys used to value road losses over home losses, but that time has long since past. What matters now is winning against ranked teams. CSC needs to do a lot better in that regard.

As of right now, Castleton needs the AQ to get in.

 

[VT bragging rights]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

EZAC East “Cute” Does the Z stand for easy ECAC East teams?

 

[Steve Day]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

And that is one reason the four combined games with Div II St Mikes & St Anselm hurts the ECAC East teams. The four games do not count towartds Div III play. I for one would be happy to see the Saints leave ECAC East and Norwich & NEC become travel partners. The good old days of Middlebury & Norwich as travel partners certainly took its toll on opposing teams.

I'll second that

 

[sacole13]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

West: St. Thomas, MSOE, Adrian, St. Norbert

East: Norwich, Oswego, Amherst, Plattsburgh, Bowdon, Salem St., Curry



ECAC West getting screwed will now commence.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

West: St. Thomas, MSOE, Adrian, St. Norbert

East: Norwich, Oswego, Amherst, Plattsburgh, Bowdon, Salem St., Curry



ECAC West getting screwed will now commence.

MCHA does not get two bids...sorry. They dont win comparisons. And are you saying Bowdoin wins the NESCAC?

 

[Ozz]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

Two from the MCHA? Is it April first already?.

 

[joecct]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

West: St. Thomas, MSOE, Adrian, St. Norbert

East: Norwich, Oswego, Amherst, Plattsburgh, Bowdon, Salem St., Curry



ECAC West getting screwed will now commence.

I haven't stopped laughing. Do you have any idea how the selections are made?

 

[norm1909]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I haven't stopped laughing. Do you have any idea how the selections are made?

Fan favorites!!!

 

[Hammer]

Re: Tournament Speculation Thread

I'm not going to make any picks until I see regional rankings, but I assure you, the MCHA is only getting 1, and that's all we have earned this year.