Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The NCAA Committee has changed the PairWise Rankings. TUCs will go back to being any team with an RPI above .5000 (like it was pre-2006). That changes things considerably. Most notably, Maine is out and Western Michigan is in.

The new PWR

1 Yale (EC) 33
2 North Dakota (WC) 31
3 Minn-Duluth (WC) 31
4 Denver U (WC) 30
5 Michigan (CC) 29
6 New Hampshire (HE) 27
7 Boston Coll (HE) 26
8 Notre Dame (CC) 26
9 Wisconsin (WC) 24
10 Dartmouth (EC) 23
11 Western Mich (CC) 22
12 Union (EC) 21
13 Merrimack (HE) 20
14 Boston Univ (HE) 19
15 NE-Omaha (WC) 19
---
16 Maine (HE) 18
17 RPI (EC) 18
18 Miami (CC) 18
19 AK-Fairbanks (CC) 15
20 Princeton (EC) 14
21 CO College (WC) 13
22 Bemidji State (WC) 12
23 Minnesota (WC) 11
24 Ohio State (CC) 10
25 Ferris State (CC) 10
26 MSU-Mankato (WC) 8
27 AK-Anchorage (WC) 7
28 Brown (EC) 7
29 Clarkson (EC) 5
30 Robert Morris (AH) 4
31 Northern Mich (CC) 4
32 Quinnipiac (EC) 3
33 Mich State (CC) 2
34 St Cloud (WC) 1

That gives us

[B]Bridgeport		Manchester		St Louis	Green Bay[/B]
Yale			Denver			Minn-Duluth	North Dakota
Notre Dame		Michigan		UNH		BC
Wisconsin		Union			W Michigan	Dartmouth
AHA Champ		Merrimack		BU		Neb-Omaha

We have to move UNH since the Wildcats are hosting and the brackets get very ugly because we have to avoid first round conference pairings. My best guess:

[B]Bridgeport		Manchester		St Louis		Green Bay[/B]
Yale			Denver			North Dakota		Minn-Duluth
BC			UNH			Michigan		Notre Dame
Dartmouth		W Michigan		Union    	        Wisconsin
Neb-Omaha		Merrimack		AHA Champ		BU

I put Duluth in Green Bay because they are the only #1 seed who can drive to Green Bay. North Dakota and Denver are flying no matter what.

I don't know what the impetus for the change was, but we have to deal with it.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Merrimack defeated Boston University tonight in the rescheduled game from last week.

1 Yale (EC) 33
2 North Dakota (WC) 31
3 Minn-Duluth (WC) 31
4 Denver U (WC) 30
5 Michigan (CC) 29
6 New Hampshire (HE) 27
7 Boston Coll (HE) 26
8 Notre Dame (CC) 26
9 Wisconsin (WC) 24
10 Merrimack (HE) 23
11 Western Mich (CC) 23
12 Dartmouth (EC) 22
13 Union (EC) 21
14 NE-Omaha (WC) 20
15 RPI (EC) 19
---
16 Miami (CC) 18
17 Maine (HE) 17
18 Boston Univ (HE) 15
19 AK-Fairbanks (CC) 15
20 Princeton (EC) 14
21 CO College (WC) 13
22 Bemidji State (WC) 12
23 Minnesota (WC) 11
24 Ohio State (CC) 10
25 Ferris State (CC) 10
26 MSU-Mankato (WC) 8
27 AK-Anchorage (WC) 7
28 Brown (EC) 7
29 Clarkson (EC) 5
30 Robert Morris (AH) 4
31 Northern Mich (CC) 4
32 Quinnipiac (EC) 3
33 Mich State (CC) 2
34 St Cloud (WC) 1

The new bracket

[B]Bridgeport		Manchester		St Louis		Green Bay[/B]
Yale			Denver			North Dakota		Minn-Duluth
BC			UNH			Michigan		Notre Dame
Dartmouth		W Michigan		Merrimack		Wisconsin
Neb-Omaha		Union			AHA Champ		RPI

Conference breakdown:

WCHA	5
ECAC	4
HEA	3
CCHA	3
AHA	1

I have sent a note to the NCAA asking why the change to the PairWise, but it might get a response if someone with press credentials posed the question.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Given the new PWR, that will give the WCHA an advantage so long as their top teams win games. Right now, 11 of the 12 teams in the WCHA are TUC.

My guess the reasoning MAY be that a lot of teams in the past were not able to put up 10 games against TUC, which nullified that point of the comparison. If you increase the field of TUC, it would reasonably mean that point of the comparison would come back in play more often making the PWR more effective.

 

[komey1]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Wouldn't it be a disadvantage as the WCHA teams would beat each other up and kill that comparison for them?

 

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I like this thread when Union is playing well and in the top 16

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Wouldn't it be a disadvantage as the WCHA teams would beat each other up and kill that comparison for them?

I said so long as the top teams win. Obviously if they lose it wouldnt be an advantage.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Given the new PWR, that will give the WCHA an advantage so long as their top teams win games. Right now, 11 of the 12 teams in the WCHA are TUC.

My guess the reasoning MAY be that a lot of teams in the past were not able to put up 10 games against TUC, which nullified that point of the comparison. If you increase the field of TUC, it would reasonably mean that point of the comparison would come back in play more often making the PWR more effective.

That would make sense, but they already dropped the 10 games vs TUC requirement - they just didn't tell anyone.

Also, recent NCAA championship manuals show that the committee last year quietly removed the line that required both teams to have played at least 10 games against teams under consideration for that comparison to be factored into the overall comparison between schools.

So much for transparency. And I really dislike the precedent this sets in regards to changing the selection criteria while the season is still on going. Were another situation like Wisconsin come up, for example, the NCAA could change the rule before selecting the teams to ensure the outcome they want. If the bubble came down to the Badgers (or any big school) and Mankato (or any small school) the committee can tweak the criteria (let's bring back "bonus points" or the "Last 16" criteria!) to ensure the bigger school gets in, meaning they (theoretically) make more money, get better attendance and increase their dismal TV ratings. Why bother with a Pairwise ranking at all? Just choose the 16 teams with the largest fan bases and let them play in a national tournament.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

So with what we know now here is how the brackets would shape up...

Bridgeport
#1 Yale
#14 UNO
#8 Merrimack
#9 Notre Dame

Manchester
#2 North Dakota
#16 AH champ
#7 New Hampshire
#10 Wisconsin

Green Bay
#3 Minnesota Duluth
#15 RPI
#6 BC
#12 Western Michigan

ST Louis
#4 Denver
#13 Union
#5 Michigan
#11 Dartmouth

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

So with what we know now here is how the brackets would shape up...

Bridgeport
#1 Yale
#14 UNO
#8 Merrimack
#9 Notre Dame

Manchester
#2 North Dakota
#16 AH champ
#7 New Hampshire
#10 Wisconsin

Green Bay
#3 Minnesota Duluth
#15 RPI
#6 BC
#12 Western Michigan

ST Louis
#4 Denver
#13 Union
#5 Michigan
#11 Dartmouth

The NCAA wants to make some money, so they aren't going to put all the cashcows in one regional or too far from home to matter. If they were to with those brackets they would have three empty barns instead of one.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Hey, some retroactive good news for Ferris State fans: You weren't the bubble team last year! Michigan State was! Then Duluth, then Ferris. So you actually finished 17th instead of 15th. Well...sort of good news. But wait, it gets better!

The field itself was unaffected by the removal of the 10-game requirement, though it does cause a 4-way tie for 6th, which sorted itself out through RPI the exact same way as if the criteria were unchanged. Hence, no one noticed.

6	St Cloud (WC)	18	0.5504
7	Cornell (EC)	18	0.5462
8	Bemidji  (CH)	18	0.5429
9	Yale (EC)	18	0.5367

If the same criteria that are now in place are applied to last year's results

1 Miami (CC) 30
2 Denver U (WC) 29
3 Wisconsin (WC) 28
4 Boston Coll (HE) 27
5 North Dakota (WC) 26
6 Cornell (EC) 25
7 Bemidji State (CH) 24
8 St Cloud (WC) 23
9 Yale (EC) 22
10 Northern Mich (CC) 21
11 Minn-Duluth (WC) 19
12 New Hampshire (HE) 19
13 Ferris State (CC) 17
---
14 AK-Fairbanks (CC) 16
15 Vermont (HE) 15
16 Michigan (CC) 14
17 Union (EC) 13
18 Maine (HE) 13
19 Mich State (CC) 12
20 Boston Univ (HE) 11
21 NE-Omaha (CC) 10
22 Mass-Lowell (HE) 9
23 Mass-Amherst (HE) 9
24 CO College (WC) 9
25 Minnesota (WC) 8
26 NorthEastern (HE) 5
27 Ohio State (CC) 3
28 MSU-Mankato (WC) 3
29 Merrimack (HE) 2
30 RIT (AH) 2
31 St Lawrence (EC) 1

Alaska and Vermont are out, Ferris is in and Duluth is in as a #3 seed. Congratulations!

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The NCAA wants to make some money, so they aren't going to put all the cashcows in one regional or too far from home to matter. If they were to with those brackets they would have three empty barns instead of one.

Green Bay would be fine with Duluth, and Western wouldn't be too difficult of a drive.

Bridgeport would have Yale and Merrimack, plus Notre Dame has a good east coast fan base.

Manchester is going to be fine with New Hampshire. North Dakota and Wisconsin's fan base will travel wherever. Also, depending on who the Atlantic Hockey champion is, they could be pretty close.

St. Louis is the biggest question mark, but Michigan is a big name, and it's also the closest destination for Denver. St. Louis is going to be an issue regardless of who is there.

 

[jcarter7669]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Hey, some retroactive good news for Ferris State fans: You weren't the bubble team last year! Michigan State was! Then Duluth, then Ferris. So you actually finished 17th instead of 15th. Well...sort of good news. But wait, it gets better!

The field itself was unaffected by the removal of the 10-game requirement, though it does cause a 4-way tie for 6th, which sorted itself out through RPI the exact same way as if the criteria were unchanged. Hence, no one noticed.

6	St Cloud (WC)	18	0.5504
7	Cornell (EC)	18	0.5462
8	Bemidji  (CH)	18	0.5429
9	Yale (EC)	18	0.5367

If the same criteria that are now in place are applied to last year's results



Alaska and Vermont are out, Ferris is in and Duluth is in as a #3 seed. Congratulations!

Maybe that was the reason for the change, so the 8th place team in HE doens't end up in the tourney while 4-5 teams ahead of them in the league standings watch on TV. The strong OOC showing got Vermont in, many thought they shouldn't be there.

 

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

North Dakota and Wisconsin's fan base will travel wherever.

That's interesting...

Just based on my experience of being in attendance at a Worcester regional with North Dakota in both 2005 and 2010, North Dakota had maybe a handful of fans at the Worcester regionals both years. Almost non-existant.

 

[jcarter7669]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

That's interesting...

Just based on my experience of being in attendance at a Worcester regional with North Dakota in both 2005 and 2010, North Dakota had maybe a handful of fans at the Worcester regionals both years. Almost non-existant.

Well all their fans traveled...

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

That's interesting...

Just based on my experience of being in attendance at a Worcester regional with North Dakota in both 2005 and 2010, North Dakota had maybe a handful of fans at the Worcester regionals both years. Almost non-existant.

Interesting. That is pretty uncommon. Maybe we just don't like Worcester

 

[sfo19]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Green Bay would be fine with Duluth, and Western wouldn't be too difficult of a drive.

Bridgeport would have Yale and Merrimack, plus Notre Dame has a good east coast fan base.

Manchester is going to be fine with New Hampshire. North Dakota and Wisconsin's fan base will travel wherever. Also, depending on who the Atlantic Hockey champion is, they could be pretty close.

St. Louis is the biggest question mark, but Michigan is a big name, and it's also the closest destination for Denver. St. Louis is going to be an issue regardless of who is there.

If any Western team is going out east, it will be Denver. They flew them east last year when they could have sent them to St Paul. Denver's not going to draw in St Louis, there isn't a large enough fan base. Wisconsin's fan base will not travel "wherever." (Hello? St Paul regional? Empty) And North Dakota, well, the fanbase is well travelled, but you just can't expect them to overwhelm with attendence at an eastern regional. Sorry, but money doesn't grow on trees for everyone. Especially this year if a lot of people are holding out hope for the Frozen Four, they aren't going to go all out for an Eastern regional beforehand. If you put them in Green Bay or St Louis, though, where people can drive, then yes, they'll travel. However, I don't think 3 West teams will have Number 1 seeds. Call it a hunch, but I still see BC sneaking into a 1 seed.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Green Bay would be fine with Duluth, and Western wouldn't be too difficult of a drive.

Seriously? Western? How many of their fans are going to make the trip (and pay the high price for tickets)? Western and Duluth combined won't come close to what they could put in that building by putting Wisconsin there.

Bridgeport would have Yale and Merrimack, plus Notre Dame has a good east coast fan base.

But how much of that fan base will turn up for a hockey game? Merrimack is a wildcard because they've never been here before...will their students show up or not care?

Manchester is going to be fine with New Hampshire. North Dakota and Wisconsin's fan base will travel wherever. Also, depending on who the Atlantic Hockey champion is, they could be pretty close.

The Manchester regional doesn't need any help as long as UNH stays in the field.

St. Louis is the biggest question mark, but Michigan is a big name, and it's also the closest destination for Denver. St. Louis is going to be an issue regardless of who is there.

St. Louis is going to be a black hole. Michigan is a big name. Denver's proximity isn't an issue since they'd have to jump on a plane anyway (a flight is a flight). NoDak and Denver are interchangeable since they both have to fly. NoDak has more of a traveling fan base, so they're more likely for St. Louis IMO. The NCAA needs as many fans in there as possible.

It's all a guess until selection Sunday anyway. If bracket integrity and competitive balance were really what the NCAA was after, those brackets would work great. One need look no further than last year's brackets to see where the NCAA puts the emphasis.

 

[Happy]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

So with what we know now here is how the brackets would shape up...

Bridgeport
#1 Yale
#14 UNO
#8 Merrimack
#9 Notre Dame

Manchester
#2 North Dakota
#16 AH champ
#7 New Hampshire
#10 Wisconsin

Green Bay
#3 Minnesota Duluth
#15 RPI
#6 BC
#12 Western Michigan

ST Louis
#4 Denver
#13 Union
#5 Michigan
#11 Dartmouth

Wisconsin will get to play at home.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Wisconsin will get to play at home.

They're in the Big 10. B10 teams are allowed to play home games in the NCAA playoffs.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Seriously? Western? How many of their fans are going to make the trip (and pay the high price for tickets)? Western and Duluth combined won't come close to what they could put in that building by putting Wisconsin there.

I was just stating that Western is only about a 6 hour drive to Green Bay. I have no idea what their fan base does for traveling. It would be their first NCAA appearance in quite a long time, so that might drive (no pun intended) more fans to show up. Duluth would be able to put up a decent showing. I don't disagree that Wisconsin would bring in more $$, but it's not like nobody would be there.

But how much of that fan base will turn up for a hockey game? Merrimack is a wildcard because they've never been here before...will their students show up or not care?

It's completely up in the air. Yale with all their hype would drive the majority of attendance, but Merrimack would be similar to Western in that they haven't been to the NCAA's in quite awhile (1988).

St. Louis is going to be a black hole. Michigan is a big name. Denver's proximity isn't an issue since they'd have to jump on a plane anyway (a flight is a flight). NoDak and Denver are interchangeable since they both have to fly. NoDak has more of a traveling fan base, so they're more likely for St. Louis IMO. The NCAA needs as many fans in there as possible.

Denver's proximity isn't a huge issue, but St. Louis is about a 12 hour drive (long, but manageable). Saying that, Denver has a very small fan base, and there are more DU fans out east than in St. Louis (assuming). I think Denver will bring about the same amount of fans wherever they are, along with North Dakota, unless North Dakota were placed in the Green Bay Regional. On a personal note, I am hoping North Dakota gets placed in the St. Louis regional.

It's all a guess until selection Sunday anyway. If bracket integrity and competitive balance were really what the NCAA was after, those brackets would work great. One need look no further than last year's brackets to see where the NCAA puts the emphasis.

Completely agree. There have been years where it seems as though bracket integrity is more important, and years (like last year) where it didn't matter at all. At this point, we're two months of hockey away from even knowing who is in the field.

It's fun to talk about though